B. Lyons-Foster
43'
M. Borchers
(ast. T. Pukki)
83'
21'
M. Stjopin
59'
(ast. T. Hytonen)
M. Stjopin
The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave HJK Helsinki a 41% win probability (draw 32%, Ilves 25%). The final result was HJK Helsinki 2–2 Ilves. In 5 previous meetings, HJK Helsinki have won 2 times, with 1 draws and 2 wins for Ilves.
Match statistics
5
Shots on target
6
2.12
Actual xG
1.07
58%
Possession
42%
3
Corners
4
Match Events
V. Tikkanen
21'
21'
M. Stjopin⚽
⚽B. Lyons-Foster
43'
59'
ast. T. Hytonen ·
M. Stjopin⚽
T. Mero
/ A. Ring
61'
62'
O. Multala
/
Y. Raap
62'
A. Popovitch
/
O. Tiitinen
A. Cicale
/ L. Lappalainen
71'
J. Kallinen
/ M. Borchers
71'
76'
G. Bamba
/
O. Pettersson
76'
S. Suvanne
/
K. Wallius
76'
J. Kanga
/
A. Popovitch
M. Bogicevic
79'
⚽M. Borchers
· ast. T. Pukki
83'
T. Pukki
/ M. Kirilov
84'
90'+2
M. Stjopin
M. Bogicevic
90'
M. Bogicevic
90'
Pre-match prediction
41.45%
HJK
32.69%
X ←
25.86%
Ilves
we assigned to the actual result (Draw)
32.69%
(low confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
0.90
2.12
+1.22
0.43
1.07
+0.64
HJK Helsinki dominated by xG (2.12 vs 1.07).
The final result does not reflect the playing dominance.
The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
Lineups
44
M. Markovic
G
M. Markovic
G
2
Brooklyn Lyons-Foster
1 ⚽
D
Brooklyn Lyons-Foster
1 ⚽
D
6
V. Tikkanen
D
V. Tikkanen
D
31
M. Bogićević
D
M. Bogićević
D
28
M. Ylitolva
D
M. Ylitolva
D
8
P. Mentu
M
P. Mentu
M
10
L. Lingman
M
L. Lingman
M
18
Toivo Mero
M
Toivo Mero
M
22
Liam Möller
M
7
Alfie Cicale
M
Alfie Cicale
M
20
T. Pukki
1 👟
F
T. Pukki
1 👟
F
Bench
4
A. Ring
M
A. Ring
M
19
D. Ezeh
F
D. Ezeh
F
24
E. Leveälahti
D
E. Leveälahti
D
15
J. Kallinen
M
J. Kallinen
M
1
J. Öst
G
J. Öst
G
26
L. Lappalainen
M
L. Lappalainen
M
17
Martin Kirilov
M
9
M. Borchers
1 ⚽
F
M. Borchers
1 ⚽
F
92
Mustafa Ameen
D
1
O. Virtanen
G
O. Virtanen
G
3
M. Rale
D
M. Rale
D
16
T. Miettunen
D
T. Miettunen
D
24
V. Kumpu
D
V. Kumpu
D
28
J. Kilo
M
J. Kilo
M
6
Y. Raap
D
Y. Raap
D
20
Otto Tiitinen
M
4
Oliver Pettersson
D
13
K. Wallius
M
K. Wallius
M
8
M. Stjopin
2 ⚽
M
M. Stjopin
2 ⚽
M
9
T. Hytönen
1 👟
F
T. Hytönen
1 👟
F
Bench
23
André Raymond
D
André Raymond
D
14
A. Popovitch
M
A. Popovitch
M
12
F. Krkalić
G
F. Krkalić
G
19
Goudouss Bamba
D
Goudouss Bamba
D
30
J. Kanga
M
J. Kanga
M
22
O. Multala
M
O. Multala
M
33
Oskari Paavola
F
17
S. Baranov
M
S. Baranov
M
25
Sebastian Suvanne
D
HJK Helsinki — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Markovic | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Brooklyn Lyons-Foster | D | — | — | 1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| V. Tikkanen | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| M. Bogićević | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| M. Ylitolva | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| P. Mentu | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| L. Lingman | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Toivo Mero | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Liam Möller | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Alfie Cicale | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| T. Pukki | F | — | — | — | 1 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Ilves — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| O. Virtanen | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| M. Rale | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| T. Miettunen | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| V. Kumpu | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| J. Kilo | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Y. Raap | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Otto Tiitinen | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Oliver Pettersson | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| K. Wallius | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| M. Stjopin | M | — | — | 2 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| T. Hytönen | F | — | — | — | 1 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of HJK Helsinki vs Ilves?
The final score was HJK Helsinki 2–2 Ilves.
What did the model predict before HJK Helsinki vs Ilves?
The model assigned 41% probability to a HJK Helsinki win, 32% to a draw, and 25% to an Ilves win.