2. Bundesliga · Regular Season - 33 May 09, 2026 13:00 Holstein-Stadion, Kiel

Holstein Kiel

#12 · 41 pts

1 – 3

Final score

1. FC Magdeburg

#14 · 39 pts

A. Kapralik (ast. A. Bernhardsson) 90'+2

40' (ast. D. Stalmach) J. Hugonet

45'+2 (ast. A. Nollenberger) D. Stalmach

56' B. Atik

The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Holstein Kiel a 44% win probability (draw 23%, 1. FC Magdeburg 31%). The final result was Holstein Kiel 1–3 1. FC Magdeburg. In 1 previous meetings, Holstein Kiel have won 0 times, with 1 draws and 0 wins for 1. FC Magdeburg.

Match statistics

8

Total shots

10

3

Shots on target

7

0.88

Actual xG

1.85

4

Saves

2

59%

Possession

41%

10

Corners

5

14

Tackles

24

2

🟨 Yellow cards

2

Match Events

↕ K. Davidsen / S. Schwab

5'

40'

ast. D. Stalmach · J. Hugonet⚽

45'+2

ast. A. Nollenberger · D. Stalmach⚽

56'

B. Atik⚽

↕ J. Therkelsen / A. Bernhardsson

60'

↕ U. Tohumcu / I. Ugoh

60'

62'

C. Krempicki / D. Stalmach ↕

65'

P. Hercher / H. Bockhorn ↕

D. Zec

67'

↕ I. Nekic / F. Roslyng

71'

↕ J. Meffert / N. Niehoff

71'

81'

F. Michel

A. Kapralik

81'

83'

A. Holmstrom / M. Zukowski ↕

83'

N. Pesch / A. Nollenberger ↕

⚽A. Kapralik · ast. A. Bernhardsson

90'+2

90'

A. Holmstrom

Pre-match prediction

44.91%

Holstein

23.81%

X

31.28%

1. ←

we assigned to the actual result (1. FC Magdeburg) 31.28% (low confidence)

Expected vs actual xG

Exp.

Actual

Δ

Holstein

1.57

0.88

-0.69

1.

1.17

1.85

+0.68

1. FC Magdeburg dominated by xG (1.85 vs 0.88). The final result reflects the playing dominance. The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.

League Table

#	Team	G	Pts
1	FC Schalke 04	34	70
2	SV Elversberg	34	62
3	SC Paderborn 07	34	62
4	Hannover 96	34	60
5	SV Darmstadt 98	34	52
6	1. FC Kaiserslautern	34	52
7	Hertha BSC	34	51
8	1. FC Nürnberg	34	46
9	VfL Bochum	34	44
10	Karlsruher SC	34	44
11	Dynamo Dresden	34	41
12	Holstein Kiel	34	41
13	Arminia Bielefeld	34	39
14	1. FC Magdeburg	34	39
15	Eintracht Braunschweig	34	37
16	SpVgg Greuther Fürth	34	37
17	Fortuna Düsseldorf	34	37
18	Preußen Münster	34	30

Lineups

Holstein Kiel 4-5-1

1

G 6.90

6 Marko Ivezić D 6.20

26 D. Zec D 6.50

13 Ivan Nekić 71' D 6.00

23 Lasse Rosenboom D 6.30

10 Jonas Therkelsen 60' M 7.20

15

Kasper Davidsen 5' M

28 Jonas Meffert 71' M 6.30

8 Umut Tohumcu 60' M 6.70

20

Adrián Kaprálik 1 ⚽ M 7.30

19 P. Harres F 6.30

Bench

11 A. Bernhardsson 1 👟 33' F 7.60

2 Frederik Roslyng 22' D 6.60

49 Ikem Ugoh 33' M 7.00

25 Marcus Müller F

22 Stefan Schwab 88' M 6.70

1. FC Magdeburg 4-3-3

1

G 7.90

19 Lubambo Musonda D 6.70

24 Jean Hugonet 1 ⚽ D 8.50

16 M. Mathisen D 7.70

7 Herbert Bockhorn 65' D 6.90

6 Dariusz Stalmach 1 ⚽ 1 👟 62' M 8.20

21 Falko Michel M 6.60

8

L. Ulrich M 7.00

23 B. Atik 1 ⚽ F 7.90

22 M. Żukowski 83' F 6.90

17 Alexander Nollenberger 1 👟 83' F 6.90

Bench

11 Alexander Ahl Holmstrom 10' F 6.50

10 Noah Pesch 10' F 6.60

27 Philipp Hercher 28' D 6.20

18 Richmond Tachie F

5

T. Muller D

Best on the pitch

Jean Hugonet

D · 1.

8.50

1 ⚽

1 shots · 37 pass

Dariusz Stalmach

M · 1.

8.20

1 ⚽ 1 👟

2 shots · 20 pass

B. Atik

F · 1.

7.90

1 ⚽

3 shots · 27 pass

G · 1.

7.90

· 36 pass

M. Mathisen

D · 1.

7.70

· 57 pass

A. Bernhardsson

F · Holstein

7.60

1 👟

1 shots · 12 pass

Holstein Kiel — Player statistics

Team	Pos	Min	Rating	⚽	👟	Shots	Pass	Acc%	Tck	YC	RC
	G	93	6.90	—	—	—	45	37%	—	—	—
Marko Ivezić	D	93	6.20	—	—	1	54	50%	2	—	—
D. Zec	D	93	6.50	—	—	1	54	49%	—	1	—
Ivan Nekić	D	71	6.00	—	—	—	48	44%	—	—	—
Lasse Rosenboom	D	93	6.30	—	—	—	41	35%	2	—	—
Jonas Therkelsen	M	60	7.20	—	—	—	21	18%	2	—	—
Kasper Davidsen	M	5	—	—	—	—	4	2%	—	—	—
Jonas Meffert	M	71	6.30	—	—	—	54	51%	1	—	—
Umut Tohumcu	M	60	6.70	—	—	—	15	12%	1	—	—
Adrián Kaprálik	M	93	7.30	1	—	4	18	13%	—	1	—
P. Harres	F	93	6.30	—	—	—	8	7%	—	—	—
A. Bernhardsson	F	33	7.60	—	1	1	12	11%	3	—	—
Frederik Roslyng	D	22	6.60	—	—	—	15	15%	1	—	—
Ikem Ugoh	M	33	7.00	—	—	1	6	6%	—	—	—
Stefan Schwab	M	88	6.70	—	—	—	40	32%	2	—	—

1. FC Magdeburg — Player statistics

Team	Pos	Min	Rating	⚽	👟	Shots	Pass	Acc%	Tck	YC	RC
	G	93	7.90	—	—	—	36	31%	—	—	—
Lubambo Musonda	D	93	6.70	—	—	1	23	22%	1	—	—
Jean Hugonet	D	93	8.50	1	—	1	37	31%	5	—	—
M. Mathisen	D	93	7.70	—	—	—	57	52%	9	—	—
Herbert Bockhorn	D	65	6.90	—	—	—	19	14%	1	—	—
Dariusz Stalmach	M	62	8.20	1	1	2	20	16%	2	—	—
Falko Michel	M	93	6.60	—	—	—	30	29%	—	1	—
L. Ulrich	M	93	7.00	—	—	—	18	15%	2	—	—
B. Atik	F	93	7.90	1	—	3	27	21%	—	—	—
M. Żukowski	F	83	6.90	—	—	2	8	5%	1	—	—
Alexander Nollenberger	F	83	6.90	—	1	1	10	6%	—	—	—
Alexander Ahl Holmstrom	F	10	6.50	—	—	—	2	1%	—	1	—
Noah Pesch	F	10	6.60	—	—	—	5	4%	2	—	—
Philipp Hercher	D	28	6.20	—	—	—	3	3%	1	—	—