2. Bundesliga · Regular Season - 33 May 09, 2026 13:00 Holstein-Stadion, Kiel

Holstein Kiel

#13 · 8 pts

1 – 3

Final score

1. FC Magdeburg

#5 · 16 pts

A. Kapralik (ast. A. Bernhardsson) 90'+2

40' (ast. D. Stalmach) J. Hugonet

45'+2 (ast. A. Nollenberger) D. Stalmach

56' B. Atik

The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Holstein Kiel a 44% win probability (draw 23%, 1. FC Magdeburg 31%). The final result was Holstein Kiel 1–3 1. FC Magdeburg. In 2 previous meetings, Holstein Kiel have won 0 times, with 1 draws and 1 wins for 1. FC Magdeburg.

Match statistics

8

Total shots

10

3

Shots on target

7

0.88

Actual xG

1.85

4

Saves

2

59%

Possession

41%

10

Corners

5

14

Tackles

24

2

🟨 Yellow cards

2

Match Events

↕ K. Davidsen / S. Schwab

5'

40'

ast. D. Stalmach · J. Hugonet⚽

45'+2

ast. A. Nollenberger · D. Stalmach⚽

56'

B. Atik⚽

↕ J. Therkelsen / A. Bernhardsson

60'

↕ U. Tohumcu / I. Ugoh

60'

62'

C. Krempicki / D. Stalmach ↕

65'

P. Hercher / H. Bockhorn ↕

D. Zec

67'

↕ I. Nekic / F. Roslyng

71'

↕ J. Meffert / N. Niehoff

71'

81'

F. Michel

A. Kapralik

81'

83'

A. Holmstrom / M. Zukowski ↕

83'

N. Pesch / A. Nollenberger ↕

⚽A. Kapralik · ast. A. Bernhardsson

90'+2

90'

A. Holmstrom

Pre-match prediction

44.91%

Holstein

23.81%

X

31.28%

1. ←

we assigned to the actual result (1. FC Magdeburg) 31.28% (low confidence)

Expected vs actual xG

Exp.

Actual

Δ

Holstein

1.57

0.88

-0.69

1.

1.17

1.85

+0.68

1. FC Magdeburg dominated by xG (1.85 vs 0.88). The final result reflects the playing dominance. The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.

League Table

#	Team	G	Pts
1	Hertha BSC	9	25
2	1. FC Nürnberg	9	18
3	1. FC Kaiserslautern	9	18
4	VfL Wolfsburg	9	16
5	1. FC Magdeburg	9	16
6	1. FC Heidenheim	9	15
7	FC St. Pauli	9	12
8	VfL Osnabrück	9	11
9	Arminia Bielefeld	9	11
10	Eintracht Braunschweig	9	10
11	Energie Cottbus	9	10
12	SpVgg Greuther Fürth	9	9
13	Holstein Kiel	9	8
14	VfL Bochum	9	8
15	Dynamo Dresden	9	8
16	Hannover 96	9	8
17	Karlsruher SC	9	8
18	SV Darmstadt 98	9	8

Lineups

Holstein Kiel 4-5-1

1

G 6.90

6 M. Ivezić D 6.20

26 D. Zec D 6.50

13 I. Nekić 71' D 6.00

23 Lasse Rosenboom D 6.30

10 J. Therkelsen 60' M 7.20

15 K. Davidsen 5' M

28 J. Meffert 71' M 6.30

8 U. Tohumcu 60' M 6.70

20 A. Kaprálik 1 ⚽ M 7.30

19 P. Harres F 6.30

Bench

11 A. Bernhardsson 1 👟 33' F 7.60

2 Frederik Roslyng 22' D 6.60

49 I. Ugoh 33' M 7.00

25 Marcus Müller F

22 S. Schwab 88' M 6.70

1. FC Magdeburg 4-3-3

1

G 7.90

19

L. Musonda D 6.70

24 J. Hugonet 1 ⚽ D 8.50

16 M. Mathisen D 7.70

7 H. Bockhorn 65' D 6.90

6 Dariusz Stalmach 1 ⚽ 1 👟 62' M 8.20

21 F. Michel M 6.60

8 L. Ulrich M 7.00

23 B. Atik 1 ⚽ F 7.90

22 M. Żukowski 83' F 6.90

17 A. Nollenberger 1 👟 83' F 6.90

Bench

11 A. Ahl-Holmström 10' F 6.50

10 Noah Pesch 10' F 6.60

27 Philipp Hercher 28' D 6.20

18 R. Tachie F

5 T. Müller D

Best on the pitch

J. Hugonet

D · 1.

8.50

1 ⚽

1 shots · 37 pass

Dariusz Stalmach

M · 1.

8.20

1 ⚽ 1 👟

2 shots · 20 pass

B. Atik

F · 1.

7.90

1 ⚽

3 shots · 27 pass

G · 1.

7.90

· 36 pass

M. Mathisen

D · 1.

7.70

· 57 pass

A. Bernhardsson

F · Holstein

7.60

1 👟

1 shots · 12 pass

Holstein Kiel — Player statistics

Team	Pos	Min	Rating	⚽	👟	Shots	Pass	Acc%	Tck	YC	RC
	G	93	6.90	—	—	—	45	37%	—	—	—
M. Ivezić	D	93	6.20	—	—	1	54	50%	2	—	—
D. Zec	D	93	6.50	—	—	1	54	49%	—	1	—
I. Nekić	D	71	6.00	—	—	—	48	44%	—	—	—
Lasse Rosenboom	D	93	6.30	—	—	—	41	35%	2	—	—
J. Therkelsen	M	60	7.20	—	—	—	21	18%	2	—	—
K. Davidsen	M	5	—	—	—	—	4	2%	—	—	—
J. Meffert	M	71	6.30	—	—	—	54	51%	1	—	—
U. Tohumcu	M	60	6.70	—	—	—	15	12%	1	—	—
A. Kaprálik	M	93	7.30	1	—	4	18	13%	—	1	—
P. Harres	F	93	6.30	—	—	—	8	7%	—	—	—
A. Bernhardsson	F	33	7.60	—	1	1	12	11%	3	—	—
Frederik Roslyng	D	22	6.60	—	—	—	15	15%	1	—	—
I. Ugoh	M	33	7.00	—	—	1	6	6%	—	—	—
S. Schwab	M	88	6.70	—	—	—	40	32%	2	—	—

1. FC Magdeburg — Player statistics

Team	Pos	Min	Rating	⚽	👟	Shots	Pass	Acc%	Tck	YC	RC
	G	93	7.90	—	—	—	36	31%	—	—	—
L. Musonda	D	93	6.70	—	—	1	23	22%	1	—	—
J. Hugonet	D	93	8.50	1	—	1	37	31%	5	—	—
M. Mathisen	D	93	7.70	—	—	—	57	52%	9	—	—
H. Bockhorn	D	65	6.90	—	—	—	19	14%	1	—	—
Dariusz Stalmach	M	62	8.20	1	1	2	20	16%	2	—	—
F. Michel	M	93	6.60	—	—	—	30	29%	—	1	—
L. Ulrich	M	93	7.00	—	—	—	18	15%	2	—	—
B. Atik	F	93	7.90	1	—	3	27	21%	—	—	—
M. Żukowski	F	83	6.90	—	—	2	8	5%	1	—	—
A. Nollenberger	F	83	6.90	—	1	1	10	6%	—	—	—
A. Ahl-Holmström	F	10	6.50	—	—	—	2	1%	—	1	—
Noah Pesch	F	10	6.60	—	—	—	5	4%	2	—	—
Philipp Hercher	D	28	6.20	—	—	—	3	3%	1	—	—