Skip to main content
← 2. Bundesliga
2. Bundesliga · Regular Season - 9 October 25, 2026 13:30 Holstein-Stadion, Kiel
Holstein Kiel
#13 · 8 pts
3 – 0
Final score
Dynamo Dresden
#15 · 8 pts
Giorgi Kvilitaia (ast. Phil Harres) 9'
Jonas Torrissen Therkelsen 73'
Phil Harres (ast. Jonas Torrissen Therkelsen) 85'
Share Telegram

The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Holstein Kiel a 34% win probability (draw 35%, Dynamo Dresden 29%). The final result was Holstein Kiel 3–0 Dynamo Dresden. In 2 previous meetings, Holstein Kiel have won 1 times, with 0 draws and 1 wins for Dynamo Dresden.

Match statistics
15
Total shots
13
4
Shots on target
4
1.47
Actual xG
2.04
4
Saves
1
37%
Possession
63%
5
Corners
10
13
Tackles
20
5
🟨 Yellow cards
1
Match Events
2'
Simon Straudi
⚽Giorgi Kvilitaia · ast. Phil Harres
9'
Kasper Davidsen
37'
↕ Kasper Davidsen / Ikem Ugoh
45'
↕ Giorgi Kvilitaia / Faride·Alidou
57'
David Zec
61'
Leon Parduzi
62'
63'
(missed pen.) Niklas Hauptmann⚽
Jonas Meffert
64'
Adrian Kapralik
66'
72'
Kaan Inanoglu / Patrice Čović ↕
↕ Adrian Kapralik / Jonas Torrissen Therkelsen
73'
⚽Jonas Torrissen Therkelsen
73'
84'
Jakob Lemmer / Niklas Hauptmann ↕
84'
Nils Fröling / Vincent Vermeij ↕
⚽Phil Harres · ast. Jonas Torrissen Therkelsen
85'
↕ Gyan de Regt / Till Wiese
88'
↕ Phil Harres / Mark Richter Montserrat
88'
90'+3
Christoph Daferner / Ben Bobzien ↕
Pre-match prediction
34.57%
Holstein ←
35.93%
X
29.5%
Dynamo
we assigned to the actual result (Holstein Kiel) 34.57% (low confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
Holstein
0.69
1.47
+0.78
Dynamo
0.55
2.04
+1.49
Dynamo Dresden dominated by xG (2.04 vs 1.47). The final result does not reflect the playing dominance. The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
League Table
#Team GPts
1 Hertha BSC Hertha BSC 9 25
2 1. FC Nürnberg 1. FC Nürnberg 9 18
3 1. FC Kaiserslautern 1. FC Kaiserslautern 9 18
4 VfL Wolfsburg VfL Wolfsburg 9 16
5 1. FC Magdeburg 1. FC Magdeburg 9 16
6 1. FC Heidenheim 1. FC Heidenheim 9 15
7 FC St. Pauli FC St. Pauli 9 12
8 VfL Osnabrück VfL Osnabrück 9 11
9 Arminia Bielefeld Arminia Bielefeld 9 11
10 Eintracht Braunschweig Eintracht Braunschweig 9 10
11 Energie Cottbus Energie Cottbus 9 10
12 SpVgg Greuther Fürth SpVgg Greuther Fürth 9 9
13 Holstein Kiel Holstein Kiel 9 8
14 VfL Bochum VfL Bochum 9 8
15 Dynamo Dresden Dynamo Dresden 9 8
16 Hannover 96 Hannover 96 9 8
17 Karlsruher SC Karlsruher SC 9 8
18 SV Darmstadt 98 SV Darmstadt 98 9 8
Lineups
Holstein Kiel Holstein Kiel 4-4-2
1 T. Weiner T. Weiner G 8.07
40 Leon Parduzi Leon Parduzi D 6.64
26 D. Zec D. Zec D 7.09
5 N. Madsen N. Madsen D 7.24
32 H. Sekine H. Sekine D 7.16
11 G. de Regt G. de Regt 88' M 7.60
15 K. Davidsen K. Davidsen 45' M 6.75
28 J. Meffert J. Meffert M 6.84
20 A. Kaprálik A. Kaprálik 73' M 6.40
9 G. Kvilitaia G. Kvilitaia 1 ⚽ 57' F 7.27
19 P. Harres P. Harres 1 ⚽ 1 👟 88' F 8.24
Bench
17 F. Alidou F. Alidou 33' F 6.46
13 I. Nekić I. Nekić D 0.00
27 I. Ugoh I. Ugoh 45' M 6.87
10 J. Therkelsen J. Therkelsen 1 ⚽ 1 👟 17' M 8.25
47 J. Tolkin J. Tolkin D 0.00
44 Mark Richter Monserrat Mark Richter Monserrat 2' F 6.49
30 T. Tasdelen T. Tasdelen M 0.00
43 T. Wiese T. Wiese 2' M 7.00
Dynamo Dresden Dynamo Dresden 4-2-3-1
22 L. Grill L. Grill G 5.60
44 S. Straudi S. Straudi D 6.71
42 F. Muller F. Muller D 6.08
6 N. Rapp N. Rapp D 6.64
32 J. Sterner J. Sterner D 6.94
21 T. Raschl T. Raschl M 6.34
18 R. Wagner R. Wagner M 6.53
20 B. Bobzien B. Bobzien 89' M 5.39
27 N. Hauptmann N. Hauptmann 84' M 6.15
24 P. Čović P. Čović 72' M 5.85
9 V. Vermeij V. Vermeij 84' F 6.49
Bench
17 A. Muhamedbegović A. Muhamedbegović D 0.00
19 A. Rossipal A. Rossipal D 0.00
33 C. Daferner C. Daferner 1' F 0.00
10 J. Lemmer J. Lemmer 6' M 5.76
11 K. Inanoglu K. Inanoglu 18' F 6.42
8 L. Herrmann L. Herrmann M 0.00
16 N. Fröling N. Fröling 6' F 6.33
34 T. Neininger T. Neininger D 0.00
1 T. Schreiber T. Schreiber G 0.00
Best on the pitch
J. Therkelsen
J. Therkelsen
M · Holstein
8.25
1 ⚽ 1 👟
2 shots · 6 pass
P. Harres
P. Harres
F · Holstein
8.24
1 ⚽ 1 👟
2 shots · 13 pass
T. Weiner
T. Weiner
G · Holstein
8.07
· 43 pass
G. de Regt
G. de Regt
M · Holstein
7.60
· 22 pass
G. Kvilitaia
G. Kvilitaia
F · Holstein
7.27
1 ⚽
3 shots · 8 pass
N. Madsen
N. Madsen
D · Holstein
7.24
· 41 pass
Holstein Kiel Holstein Kiel — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
T. Weiner G 90 8.07 — — 0 43 31% 0 — —
Leon Parduzi D 90 6.64 — — 0 32 26% 5 1 —
D. Zec D 90 7.09 — — 0 48 43% 0 1 —
N. Madsen D 90 7.24 — — 0 41 31% 2 — —
H. Sekine D 90 7.16 — — 2 36 25% 3 — —
G. de Regt M 88 7.60 — — 0 22 15% 1 — —
K. Davidsen M 45 6.75 — — 1 12 7% 1 1 —
J. Meffert M 90 6.84 — — 0 37 34% 0 1 —
A. Kaprálik M 73 6.40 — — 4 15 11% 0 1 —
G. Kvilitaia F 57 7.27 1 — 3 8 3% 0 — —
P. Harres F 88 8.24 1 1 2 13 5% 0 — —
F. Alidou F 33 6.46 — — 1 7 3% 0 — —
I. Ugoh M 45 6.87 — — 0 12 9% 1 — —
J. Therkelsen M 17 8.25 1 1 2 6 4% 0 — —
Mark Richter Monserrat F 2 6.49 — — 0 3 3% 0 — —
T. Wiese M 2 7.00 — — 0 2 2% 0 — —
Dynamo Dresden Dynamo Dresden — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
L. Grill G 90 5.60 — — 0 51 32% 0 — —
S. Straudi D 90 6.71 — — 1 57 50% 3 1 —
F. Muller D 90 6.08 — — 2 96 85% 3 — —
N. Rapp D 90 6.64 — — 1 84 76% 2 — —
J. Sterner D 90 6.94 — — 1 46 37% 1 — —
T. Raschl M 90 6.34 — — 0 76 65% 1 — —
R. Wagner M 90 6.53 — — 0 56 51% 1 — —
B. Bobzien M 89 5.39 — — 1 39 27% 0 — —
N. Hauptmann M 84 6.15 — — 4 28 25% 4 — —
P. Čović M 72 5.85 — — 0 27 21% 0 — —
V. Vermeij F 84 6.49 — — 3 18 11% 2 — —
C. Daferner F 1 0.00 — — 0 0 0% 0 — —
J. Lemmer M 6 5.76 — — 0 6 5% 0 — —
K. Inanoglu F 18 6.42 — — 0 1 0% 3 — —
N. Fröling F 6 6.33 — — 0 3 1% 0 — —
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Holstein Kiel vs Dynamo Dresden?
The final score was Holstein Kiel 3–0 Dynamo Dresden.
What did the model predict before Holstein Kiel vs Dynamo Dresden?
The model assigned 34% probability to a Holstein Kiel win, 35% to a draw, and 29% to an Dynamo Dresden win.