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2. Bundesliga · Regular Season - 2 August 14, 2026 18:30 Holstein-Stadion, Kiel
Holstein Kiel
#18 · 3 pts
2 – 2
Final score
FC St. Pauli
#17 · 3 pts
P. Harres (ast. A. Bernhardsson) 56'
J. Therkelsen (ast. P. Harres) 88'
32' M. Kaars
45'+4 (ast. A. Pyrka) T. Hara
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The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave FC St. Pauli a 35% win probability (draw 31%, Holstein Kiel 33%). The final result was Holstein Kiel 2–2 FC St. Pauli.

Match statistics
13
Total shots
10
6
Shots on target
6
2.09
Actual xG
2.56
4
Saves
4
64%
Possession
36%
5
Corners
5
8
Tackles
19
3
🟨 Yellow cards
3
Match Events
32'
M. Kaars⚽
45'+2
M. Rasmussen
45'+4
ast. A. Pyrka · T. Hara⚽
G. Balzi
47'
T. Weiner
47'
49'
J. Fujita
⚽P. Harres · ast. A. Bernhardsson
56'
64'
E. Smith / J. Fujita ↕
64'
R. Jones / T. Hara ↕
K. Davidsen
72'
73'
R. Jones
↕ G. Balzi / J. Therkelsen
74'
80'
S. Banks / B. Hrgota ↕
85'
S. Klein / M. Kaars ↕
↕ L. Parduzi / F. Alidou
86'
⚽J. Therkelsen · ast. P. Harres
88'
Pre-match prediction
33.24%
Holstein
31.46%
X ←
35.29%
FC
we assigned to the actual result (Draw) 31.46% (low confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
Holstein
1.10
2.09
+0.98
FC
2.91
2.56
-0.35
FC St. Pauli dominated by xG (2.56 vs 2.09). The final result does not reflect the playing dominance. The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
League Table
#Team GPts
1 1. FC Nürnberg 1. FC Nürnberg 5 13
2 Hertha BSC Hertha BSC 4 12
3 1. FC Magdeburg 1. FC Magdeburg 5 9
4 1. FC Heidenheim 1. FC Heidenheim 4 9
5 VfL Wolfsburg VfL Wolfsburg 4 8
6 1. FC Kaiserslautern 1. FC Kaiserslautern 5 8
7 VfL Bochum VfL Bochum 5 7
8 VfL Osnabrück VfL Osnabrück 4 6
9 SpVgg Greuther Fürth SpVgg Greuther Fürth 5 5
10 Karlsruher SC Karlsruher SC 4 5
11 Eintracht Braunschweig Eintracht Braunschweig 5 4
12 Energie Cottbus Energie Cottbus 4 4
13 Arminia Bielefeld Arminia Bielefeld 5 4
14 Hannover 96 Hannover 96 5 4
15 SV Darmstadt 98 SV Darmstadt 98 5 4
16 Dynamo Dresden Dynamo Dresden 5 4
17 FC St. Pauli FC St. Pauli 4 3
18 Holstein Kiel Holstein Kiel 4 3
Lineups
Holstein Kiel Holstein Kiel 4-1-4-1
1 T. Weiner T. Weiner G 7.20
40 Leon Parduzi Leon Parduzi 86' D 6.70
26 D. Zec D. Zec D 5.60
13 I. Nekić I. Nekić D 6.20
32 H. Sekine H. Sekine D 6.30
28 J. Meffert J. Meffert M 6.90
11 A. Bernhardsson A. Bernhardsson 1 👟 M 7.20
15 K. Davidsen K. Davidsen M 7.50
8 G. Balzi G. Balzi 74' M 6.90
20 A. Kaprálik A. Kaprálik M 5.90
19 P. Harres P. Harres 1 ⚽ 1 👟 F 8.30
Bench
17 Faride Alidou Faride Alidou 8' F 6.30
27 Ikem Ugoh Ikem Ugoh M
10 J. Therkelsen J. Therkelsen 1 ⚽ 16' M 7.30
47 J. Tolkin J. Tolkin D
41 Lio Rothenhagen Lio Rothenhagen G
6 Marko Ivezić Marko Ivezić D
22 M. Reimers M. Reimers M
3 Niko Takahashi Cendagorta Niko Takahashi Cendagorta D
30 T. Tasdelen T. Tasdelen M
FC St. Pauli FC St. Pauli 3-4-1-2
1 B. Voll B. Voll G 7.20
15 T. Ando T. Ando D 6.50
6 M. Mathisen M. Mathisen D 6.50
4 D. Nemeth D. Nemeth D 6.90
23 L. Oppie L. Oppie M 7.00
16 J. Fujita J. Fujita 64' M 6.50
20 M. Rasmussen M. Rasmussen M 7.30
11 A. Pyrka A. Pyrka 1 👟 M 7.90
10 B. Hrgota B. Hrgota 80' F 6.30
18 T. Hara T. Hara 1 ⚽ 64' F 7.30
19 M. Kaars M. Kaars 1 ⚽ 85' F 7.30
Bench
25 A. Dźwigała A. Dźwigała D
33 D. Mitov D. Mitov G
14 E. Ahlstrand E. Ahlstrand M
8 E. Smith E. Smith 26' M 6.30
21 L. Ritzka L. Ritzka D
26 R. Jones R. Jones 26' F 5.90
2 Rony Jansson Rony Jansson D
22 Samuel Klein Samuel Klein 9' M 6.20
17 Scott Banks Scott Banks 10' F 6.90
Best on the pitch
P. Harres
P. Harres
F · Holstein
8.30
1 ⚽ 1 👟
2 shots · 13 pass
A. Pyrka
A. Pyrka
M · FC
7.90
1 👟
· 22 pass
K. Davidsen
K. Davidsen
M · Holstein
7.50
2 shots · 42 pass
J. Therkelsen
J. Therkelsen
M · Holstein
7.30
1 ⚽
1 shots · 8 pass
M. Kaars
M. Kaars
F · FC
7.30
1 ⚽
4 shots · 11 pass
T. Hara
T. Hara
F · FC
7.30
1 ⚽
1 shots · 10 pass
Holstein Kiel Holstein Kiel — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
T. Weiner G 90 7.20 — — — 70 57% — 1 —
Leon Parduzi D 86 6.70 — — 1 70 61% — — —
D. Zec D 90 5.60 — — 1 62 57% — — —
I. Nekić D 90 6.20 — — 1 46 40% 3 — —
H. Sekine D 90 6.30 — — 2 75 69% 1 — —
J. Meffert M 90 6.90 — — — 68 62% — — —
A. Bernhardsson M 90 7.20 — 1 1 28 17% 1 — —
K. Davidsen M 90 7.50 — — 2 42 32% 2 1 —
G. Balzi M 74 6.90 — — 1 43 40% 1 1 —
A. Kaprálik M 90 5.90 — — 1 22 17% — — —
P. Harres F 90 8.30 1 1 2 13 11% — — —
Faride Alidou F 8 6.30 — — — 1 1% — — —
J. Therkelsen M 16 7.30 1 — 1 8 6% — — —
FC St. Pauli FC St. Pauli — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
B. Voll G 90 7.20 — — — 31 21% — — —
T. Ando D 90 6.50 — — — 32 23% — — —
M. Mathisen D 90 6.50 — — — 38 26% 3 — —
D. Nemeth D 90 6.90 — — 2 28 20% 2 — —
L. Oppie M 90 7.00 — — 1 23 13% 2 — —
J. Fujita M 64 6.50 — — — 26 20% 2 1 —
M. Rasmussen M 90 7.30 — — — 30 21% 4 1 —
A. Pyrka M 90 7.90 — 1 — 22 18% 3 — —
B. Hrgota F 80 6.30 — — — 21 9% 2 — —
T. Hara F 64 7.30 1 — 1 10 5% 1 — —
M. Kaars F 85 7.30 1 — 4 11 8% — — —
E. Smith M 26 6.30 — — — 14 11% — — —
R. Jones F 26 5.90 — — 1 5 2% — 1 —
Samuel Klein M 9 6.20 — — 1 2 1% — — —
Scott Banks F 10 6.90 — — — 2 1% — — —
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Holstein Kiel vs FC St. Pauli?
The final score was Holstein Kiel 2–2 FC St. Pauli.
What did the model predict before Holstein Kiel vs FC St. Pauli?
The model assigned 33% probability to a Holstein Kiel win, 31% to a draw, and 35% to an FC St. Pauli win.