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← AFC Champions League Two

Home United - BG Pathum United

AFC Champions League Two September 17, 2026 12:00
Home United
#3 · 0 pts
vs
BG Pathum United
#2 · 0 pts
⚡ Pre-match analysis
35.04%
Win
Home United
32.55%
Draw
32.41%
Win
BG Pathum United
1.97
Expected xG
1.03

Market probabilities

Most likely result 1–1 (10.68%)
1X2 Result
1 35%
X 33%
2 32%
Double Chance
1X 68%
X2 65%
12 67%
Over / Under
Over 1.5 76%
Over 2.5 54%
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The ForzaPitch prediction gives Home United a 35% win probability, against 32% for a draw and 32% for BG Pathum United. Expected goals are 2.0 for Home United and 1.0 for BG Pathum United (total 3.0), with a 76% probability of Over 1.5 goals. The most likely scoreline is 1–1 at 10.68% probability.

Season Stats

Home United
3W 1D 2L
BG Pathum United
2W 0D 4L
Averages per game
1.7
Goals
0.8
1.3
Conceded
1.3
Percentages
67%
O 1.5
83%
50%
O 2.5
33%
67%
BTTS
33%
17%
Clean Sht
17%
ℹ Based on the last 6 matches in AFC Champions League Two. Bars use fixed scales (goals max 3.5, percentages 0–100%).

Venue Form

Goals signal (venue avg)
34%
O 3.5
67%
BTTS
Home United
2W 0D 1L · at home
BG Pathum United
1W 0D 2L · away
2.7
gls/g
1.0
2.0
Conceded
1.3
67%
Win %
33%
67%
Win or Draw
33%
100%
O 1.5
100%
100%
O 2.5
33%
67%
O 3.5
0%
100%
BTTS
33%
0%
Clean Sht
33%
0%
Failed to Score
33%
last 3
ℹ Home team's record in home matches only · Away team's record in away matches only.

Score Matrix

↕ Home United BG Pathum United →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0 5.0% 5.1% 2.6% 0.9% 0.2% —
1 9.9% 10.1% 5.2% 1.8% 0.5% 0.1%
2 9.7% 10.0% 5.1% 1.7% 0.4% 0.1%
3 6.4% 6.5% 3.3% 1.1% 0.3% 0.1%
4 3.1% 3.2% 1.6% 0.6% 0.1% —
5 1.2% 1.3% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1% —

Recent form

Home United Home United
W Selangor 0–1
W Persib Bandung 3–2
L Bangkok United 1–2
L Bangkok United 1–0
W Selangor 4–2
BG Pathum United BG Pathum United
L Tampines Rovers 0–2
L Pohang Steelers 2–0
W Kaya 2–1
W Kaya 0–2
L Tampines Rovers 2–1
Away clean sheet (120 days) 45%

Playing profile

Home United Home United
Attack
45
Defence
76
Form
59
BG Pathum United BG Pathum United
Attack
29
Defence
74
Form
53
Indices on a 0–100 scale calculated by the model

Group F

# Team G Pts
1 Adelaide United Adelaide United 0 0
2 BG Pathum United BG Pathum United 0 0
3 Home United Home United 0 0
4 Wofoo Tai Po Wofoo Tai Po 0 0

What's at stake · Group F

Top 2 advance to the next round

Home United BG Pathum United
Current #3 #2
→ Home United #1 #3
→ Draw #2 #1
→ BG Pathum United #3 #1

Projected ranking after this match only. Goal difference tiebreakers not applied.

Frequently Asked Questions
Who will win Home United vs BG Pathum United?
The model gives Home United a 35% win probability, 32% for a draw, and 32% for an BG Pathum United win.
How many goals are expected in Home United vs BG Pathum United?
Expected goals: Home United 2.0, BG Pathum United 1.0 (total 3.0). Probability of over 1.5 goals: 76%.
What is the most likely score in Home United vs BG Pathum United?
1–1 is the most probable final score, with an estimated probability of 10.68%.