MLS
· Regular Season - 16
July 23, 2026 02:30
H. Herrera
40'
78'
(ast. N. Ordaz)
T. Baribo
The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Houston Dynamo a 48% win probability (draw 25%, DC United 26%). The final result was Houston Dynamo 1–1 DC United.
Match statistics
13
Total shots
4
5
Shots on target
1
1.04
Actual xG
0.85
0
Saves
4
64%
Possession
36%
3
Corners
3
4
Tackles
11
2
🟨 Yellow cards
4
Match Events
⚽H. Herrera
40'
53'
M. Peltola
/
J. Hopkins
D. McGuire
/ E. Ponce
59'
Lucas Halter
/ E. Sviatchenko
61'
67'
S. Hefti
68'
J. Stroud
/
B. Servania
68'
N. Ordaz
/
L. Munteanu
68'
H. Kijima
/
Peglow
Artur
70'
71'
T. Baribo
72'
A. Dozzell
L. Ennali
/ F. Negri
77'
H. Herrera
/ D. Samassekou
78'
78'
ast. N. Ordaz ·
T. Baribo⚽
M. Bogusz
/ O. Lingr
88'
Felipe Andrade
/ D. Holmes
88'
88'
N. Markovic
/
A. Dozzell
90'+5
J. Stroud
E. Sviatchenko
90'+7
Pre-match prediction
48.42%
Houston
25.42%
X ←
26.16%
DC
we assigned to the actual result (Draw)
25.42%
(low confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
1.63
1.04
-0.59
1.16
0.85
-0.31
xG dominance was balanced (1.04 – 0.85).
The final result reflects the playing dominance.
The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
Lineups
31
Jonathan Bond
G
Jonathan Bond
G
11
Lawrence Ennali
77'
D
Lawrence Ennali
77'
D
34
Agustin Resch
D
Agustin Resch
D
5
Lucas Halter
61'
D
Lucas Halter
61'
D
36
Felipe Andrade
88'
D
Felipe Andrade
88'
D
6
Artur
M
Artur
M
20
Guilherme
M
Guilherme
M
16
Héctor Herrera
1 ⚽
78'
M
Héctor Herrera
1 ⚽
78'
M
8
Jack McGlynn
M
Jack McGlynn
M
19
Mateusz Bogusz
88'
M
Mateusz Bogusz
88'
M
23
Duncan McGuire
59'
F
Duncan McGuire
59'
F
Bench
30
Agustín Bouzat
M
Agustín Bouzat
M
26
Blake Gillingham
G
Blake Gillingham
G
18
Diadié Samassékou
12'
M
Diadié Samassékou
12'
M
14
Duane Holmes
11'
M
Duane Holmes
11'
M
28
Erik Sviatchenko
29'
D
Erik Sviatchenko
29'
D
10
Ezequiel Ponce
31'
F
Ezequiel Ponce
31'
F
21
Franco Negri
13'
D
Franco Negri
13'
D
24
Ibrahim Aliyu
F
Ibrahim Aliyu
F
9
Ondrej Lingr
11'
M
Ondrej Lingr
11'
M
1
Sean Johnson
G
Sean Johnson
G
6
Keisuke Kurokawa
D
Keisuke Kurokawa
D
13
Sean Nealis
D
Sean Nealis
D
3
Lucas Bartlett
D
Lucas Bartlett
D
5
Silvan Hefti
D
Silvan Hefti
D
7
João Peglow
67'
M
João Peglow
67'
M
23
Brandon Servania
67'
M
Brandon Servania
67'
M
21
Andre Dozzell
88'
M
Andre Dozzell
88'
M
25
Jackson Hopkins
53'
M
Jackson Hopkins
53'
M
11
Louis Munteanu
67'
F
Louis Munteanu
67'
F
9
T. Baribo
1 ⚽
F
T. Baribo
1 ⚽
F
Bench
26
Alex Bono
G
Alex Bono
G
20
Grant Leveille
G
Grant Leveille
G
77
Hosei Kijima
23'
M
Hosei Kijima
23'
M
17
Jacob Murrell
F
Jacob Murrell
F
8
Jared Stroud
23'
M
Jared Stroud
23'
M
4
Matti Peltola
37'
D
Matti Peltola
37'
D
27
Nikola Markovic
11'
D
Nikola Markovic
11'
D
22
N. Ordaz
1 👟
23'
F
N. Ordaz
1 👟
23'
F
32
Oscar Avilez
F
Oscar Avilez
F
Best on the pitch
Héctor Herrera
M · Houston
8.20
1 ⚽
2 shots
· 61 pass
Jack McGlynn
M · Houston
7.60
1 shots
· 73 pass
Artur
M · Houston
7.30
· 91 pass
Agustin Resch
D · Houston
7.20
· 52 pass
Lucas Halter
D · Houston
7.20
1 shots
· 34 pass
Lucas Bartlett
D · DC
7.20
· 47 pass
Houston Dynamo — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Bond | G | 90 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 16 | 11% | — | — | — |
| Lawrence Ennali | D | 77 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 22 | 19% | — | — | — |
| Agustin Resch | D | 90 | 7.20 | — | — | — | 52 | 49% | 2 | — | — |
| Lucas Halter | D | 61 | 7.20 | — | — | 1 | 34 | 32% | — | — | — |
| Felipe Andrade | D | 88 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 50 | 48% | — | — | — |
| Artur | M | 90 | 7.30 | — | — | — | 91 | 84% | — | 1 | — |
| Guilherme | M | 90 | 7.00 | — | — | 1 | 48 | 40% | — | — | — |
| Héctor Herrera | M | 78 | 8.20 | 1 | — | 2 | 61 | 57% | — | — | — |
| Jack McGlynn | M | 90 | 7.60 | — | — | 1 | 73 | 67% | — | — | — |
| Mateusz Bogusz | M | 88 | 6.60 | — | — | 2 | 25 | 21% | 1 | — | — |
| Duncan McGuire | F | 59 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 8 | 7% | — | — | — |
| Diadié Samassékou | M | 12 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 17 | 17% | — | — | — |
| Duane Holmes | M | 11 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 1 | 1% | — | — | — |
| Erik Sviatchenko | D | 29 | 6.30 | — | — | 1 | 21 | 19% | — | 1 | — |
| Ezequiel Ponce | F | 31 | 6.70 | — | — | 1 | 8 | 6% | — | — | — |
| Franco Negri | D | 13 | 6.30 | — | — | 2 | 7 | 6% | 1 | — | — |
| Ondrej Lingr | M | 11 | 6.30 | — | — | 2 | 3 | 2% | — | — | — |
DC United — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sean Johnson | G | 90 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 27 | 15% | — | — | — |
| Keisuke Kurokawa | D | 90 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 31 | 25% | — | — | — |
| Sean Nealis | D | 90 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 41 | 37% | — | — | — |
| Lucas Bartlett | D | 90 | 7.20 | — | — | — | 47 | 41% | — | — | — |
| Silvan Hefti | D | 90 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 31 | 29% | 2 | 1 | — |
| João Peglow | M | 67 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 20 | 19% | — | — | — |
| Brandon Servania | M | 67 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 15 | 13% | 2 | — | — |
| Andre Dozzell | M | 88 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 32 | 29% | 1 | 1 | — |
| Jackson Hopkins | M | 53 | 6.90 | — | — | 1 | 18 | 15% | 3 | — | — |
| Louis Munteanu | F | 67 | 6.50 | — | — | 1 | 2 | 2% | — | — | — |
| T. Baribo | F | 90 | 7.00 | 1 | — | 1 | 13 | 7% | — | 1 | — |
| Hosei Kijima | M | 23 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 4 | 3% | 1 | — | — |
| Jared Stroud | M | 23 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 3 | 2% | — | 1 | — |
| Matti Peltola | D | 37 | 7.00 | — | — | 1 | 14 | 14% | 2 | — | — |
| Nikola Markovic | D | 11 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 4 | 4% | — | — | — |
| N. Ordaz | F | 23 | 6.90 | — | 1 | — | 4 | 4% | — | — | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Houston Dynamo vs DC United?
The final score was Houston Dynamo 1–1 DC United.
What did the model predict before Houston Dynamo vs DC United?
The model assigned 48% probability to a Houston Dynamo win, 25% to a draw, and 26% to an DC United win.