MLS
· Regular Season - 16
July 23, 2026 02:30
H. Herrera
40'
78'
(ast. N. Ordaz)
T. Baribo
The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Houston Dynamo a 48% win probability (draw 25%, DC United 26%). The final result was Houston Dynamo 1–1 DC United.
Match statistics
13
Total shots
4
5
Shots on target
1
1.04
Actual xG
0.85
0
Saves
4
64%
Possession
36%
3
Corners
3
4
Tackles
11
2
🟨 Yellow cards
4
Match Events
⚽H. Herrera
40'
53'
M. Peltola
/
J. Hopkins
D. McGuire
/ E. Ponce
59'
Lucas Halter
/ E. Sviatchenko
61'
67'
S. Hefti
68'
J. Stroud
/
B. Servania
68'
N. Ordaz
/
L. Munteanu
68'
H. Kijima
/
Peglow
Artur
70'
71'
T. Baribo
72'
A. Dozzell
L. Ennali
/ F. Negri
77'
H. Herrera
/ D. Samassekou
78'
78'
ast. N. Ordaz ·
T. Baribo⚽
M. Bogusz
/ O. Lingr
88'
Felipe Andrade
/ D. Holmes
88'
88'
N. Markovic
/
A. Dozzell
90'+5
J. Stroud
E. Sviatchenko
90'+7
Pre-match prediction
48.42%
Houston
25.42%
X ←
26.16%
DC
we assigned to the actual result (Draw)
25.42%
(low confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
1.63
1.04
-0.59
1.16
0.85
-0.31
xG dominance was balanced (1.04 – 0.85).
The final result reflects the playing dominance.
The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
Lineups
31
J. Bond
G
J. Bond
G
11
L. Ennali
77'
D
L. Ennali
77'
D
34
A. Resch
D
A. Resch
D
5
Lucas Halter
61'
D
Lucas Halter
61'
D
36
Felipe Andrade
88'
D
Felipe Andrade
88'
D
6
Artur
M
Artur
M
20
Guilherme
M
Guilherme
M
16
H. Herrera
1 ⚽
78'
M
H. Herrera
1 ⚽
78'
M
8
J. McGlynn
M
J. McGlynn
M
19
M. Bogusz
88'
M
M. Bogusz
88'
M
23
D. McGuire
59'
F
D. McGuire
59'
F
Bench
30
A. Bouzat
M
A. Bouzat
M
24
A. Ibrahim
F
A. Ibrahim
F
26
B. Gillingham
G
B. Gillingham
G
14
D. Holmes
11'
M
D. Holmes
11'
M
18
D. Samassékou
12'
M
D. Samassékou
12'
M
10
E. Ponce
31'
F
E. Ponce
31'
F
28
E. Sviatchenko
29'
D
E. Sviatchenko
29'
D
21
F. Negri
13'
D
F. Negri
13'
D
9
O. Lingr
11'
M
O. Lingr
11'
M
1
S. Johnson
G
S. Johnson
G
6
K. Kurokawa
D
K. Kurokawa
D
13
S. Nealis
D
S. Nealis
D
3
L. Bartlett
D
L. Bartlett
D
5
S. Hefti
D
S. Hefti
D
7
Peglow
67'
M
Peglow
67'
M
23
B. Servania
67'
M
B. Servania
67'
M
21
A. Dozzell
88'
M
A. Dozzell
88'
M
25
J. Hopkins
53'
M
J. Hopkins
53'
M
11
L. Munteanu
67'
F
L. Munteanu
67'
F
9
T. Baribo
1 ⚽
F
T. Baribo
1 ⚽
F
Bench
26
A. Bono
G
A. Bono
G
20
Grant Leveille
G
Grant Leveille
G
77
Hosei Kijima
23'
M
Hosei Kijima
23'
M
17
J. Murrell
F
J. Murrell
F
8
J. Stroud
23'
M
J. Stroud
23'
M
4
Matti Peltola
37'
D
Matti Peltola
37'
D
27
Nikola Markovic
11'
D
Nikola Markovic
11'
D
22
N. Ordaz
1 👟
23'
F
N. Ordaz
1 👟
23'
F
32
O. Avilez
F
O. Avilez
F
Best on the pitch
H. Herrera
M · Houston
8.20
1 ⚽
2 shots
· 61 pass
J. McGlynn
M · Houston
7.60
1 shots
· 73 pass
Artur
M · Houston
7.30
· 91 pass
A. Resch
D · Houston
7.20
· 52 pass
Lucas Halter
D · Houston
7.20
1 shots
· 34 pass
L. Bartlett
D · DC
7.20
· 47 pass
Houston Dynamo — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Bond | G | 90 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 16 | 11% | — | — | — |
| L. Ennali | D | 77 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 22 | 19% | — | — | — |
| A. Resch | D | 90 | 7.20 | — | — | — | 52 | 49% | 2 | — | — |
| Lucas Halter | D | 61 | 7.20 | — | — | 1 | 34 | 32% | — | — | — |
| Felipe Andrade | D | 88 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 50 | 48% | — | — | — |
| Artur | M | 90 | 7.30 | — | — | — | 91 | 84% | — | 1 | — |
| Guilherme | M | 90 | 7.00 | — | — | 1 | 48 | 40% | — | — | — |
| H. Herrera | M | 78 | 8.20 | 1 | — | 2 | 61 | 57% | — | — | — |
| J. McGlynn | M | 90 | 7.60 | — | — | 1 | 73 | 67% | — | — | — |
| M. Bogusz | M | 88 | 6.60 | — | — | 2 | 25 | 21% | 1 | — | — |
| D. McGuire | F | 59 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 8 | 7% | — | — | — |
| D. Holmes | M | 11 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 1 | 1% | — | — | — |
| D. Samassékou | M | 12 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 17 | 17% | — | — | — |
| E. Ponce | F | 31 | 6.70 | — | — | 1 | 8 | 6% | — | — | — |
| E. Sviatchenko | D | 29 | 6.30 | — | — | 1 | 21 | 19% | — | 1 | — |
| F. Negri | D | 13 | 6.30 | — | — | 2 | 7 | 6% | 1 | — | — |
| O. Lingr | M | 11 | 6.30 | — | — | 2 | 3 | 2% | — | — | — |
DC United — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Johnson | G | 90 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 27 | 15% | — | — | — |
| K. Kurokawa | D | 90 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 31 | 25% | — | — | — |
| S. Nealis | D | 90 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 41 | 37% | — | — | — |
| L. Bartlett | D | 90 | 7.20 | — | — | — | 47 | 41% | — | — | — |
| S. Hefti | D | 90 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 31 | 29% | 2 | 1 | — |
| Peglow | M | 67 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 20 | 19% | — | — | — |
| B. Servania | M | 67 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 15 | 13% | 2 | — | — |
| A. Dozzell | M | 88 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 32 | 29% | 1 | 1 | — |
| J. Hopkins | M | 53 | 6.90 | — | — | 1 | 18 | 15% | 3 | — | — |
| L. Munteanu | F | 67 | 6.50 | — | — | 1 | 2 | 2% | — | — | — |
| T. Baribo | F | 90 | 7.00 | 1 | — | 1 | 13 | 7% | — | 1 | — |
| Hosei Kijima | M | 23 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 4 | 3% | 1 | — | — |
| J. Stroud | M | 23 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 3 | 2% | — | 1 | — |
| Matti Peltola | D | 37 | 7.00 | — | — | 1 | 14 | 14% | 2 | — | — |
| Nikola Markovic | D | 11 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 4 | 4% | — | — | — |
| N. Ordaz | F | 23 | 6.90 | — | 1 | — | 4 | 4% | — | — | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Houston Dynamo vs DC United?
The final score was Houston Dynamo 1–1 DC United.
What did the model predict before Houston Dynamo vs DC United?
The model assigned 48% probability to a Houston Dynamo win, 25% to a draw, and 26% to an DC United win.