Premier League
· Regular Season - 1
August 22, 2026 13:30
S. Ajayi
17'
N. Mendy
(ast. R. Slater)
38'
The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Manchester United a 40% win probability (draw 30%, Hull City 28%). The final result was Hull City 2–0 Manchester United.
Match statistics
7
Total shots
11
4
Shots on target
4
1.26
Actual xG
1.54
4
Saves
2
30%
Possession
70%
1
Corners
4
12
Tackles
4
1
🟨 Yellow cards
1
Match Events
⚽S. Ajayi
17'
34'
P. Dorgu
⚽N. Mendy
· ast. R. Slater
38'
M. Crooks
42'
46'
M. Rashford
/
P. Dorgu
N. Mendy
/ L. Herrington
64'
S. Ajayi
/ P. McNair
64'
67'
B. Sesko
/
Andrey Santos
67'
K. Mainoo
/
Y. Tielemans
L. Coyle
/ C. Drameh
70'
E. Stroud
/ L. Millar
71'
80'
D. Dalot
/
N. Mazraoui
80'
S. Lacey
/
M. Cunha
R. Giles
/ M. Targett
85'
L. Millar
90'+6
Pre-match prediction
28.65%
Hull ←
30.44%
X
40.91%
Manchester
we assigned to the actual result (Hull City)
28.65%
(low confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
2.44
1.26
-1.18
0.66
1.54
+0.88
xG dominance was balanced (1.26 – 1.54).
The final result does not reflect the playing dominance.
The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
Lineups
19
K. Tzolakis
80'
G
K. Tzolakis
80'
G
3
R. Giles
80'
D
R. Giles
80'
D
32
N. Mendy
1 ⚽
64'
D
N. Mendy
1 ⚽
64'
D
15
J. Egan
80'
D
J. Egan
80'
D
6
S. Ajayi
1 ⚽
64'
D
S. Ajayi
1 ⚽
64'
D
2
L. Coyle
70'
D
L. Coyle
70'
D
21
E. Stroud
71'
M
E. Stroud
71'
M
27
R. Slater
1 👟
80'
M
R. Slater
1 👟
80'
M
25
M. Crooks
80'
M
M. Crooks
80'
M
10
M. Belloumi
80'
M
M. Belloumi
80'
M
9
O. McBurnie
80'
F
O. McBurnie
80'
F
Bench
18
Cody Drameh
10'
D
Cody Drameh
10'
D
12
D. Phillips
G
D. Phillips
G
14
J. Hjertø-Dahl
M
J. Hjertø-Dahl
M
26
K. Dowell
M
K. Dowell
M
29
L. Gourna-Douath
M
L. Gourna-Douath
M
22
L. Herrington
16'
D
L. Herrington
16'
D
7
L. Millar
9'
F
L. Millar
9'
F
23
M. Targett
D
M. Targett
D
17
P. McNair
16'
D
P. McNair
16'
D
1
S. Lammens
80'
G
S. Lammens
80'
G
23
L. Shaw
80'
D
L. Shaw
80'
D
26
A. Heaven
80'
D
A. Heaven
80'
D
5
H. Maguire
80'
D
H. Maguire
80'
D
3
N. Mazraoui
80'
D
N. Mazraoui
80'
D
17
Andrey Santos
67'
M
Andrey Santos
67'
M
18
Y. Tielemans
67'
M
Y. Tielemans
67'
M
13
P. Dorgu
45'
M
P. Dorgu
45'
M
8
Bruno Fernandes
80'
M
Bruno Fernandes
80'
M
19
B. Mbeumo
80'
M
B. Mbeumo
80'
M
10
Matheus Cunha
80'
F
Matheus Cunha
80'
F
Bench
30
B. Šeško
13'
F
B. Šeško
13'
F
2
Diogo Dalot
D
Diogo Dalot
D
11
J. Zirkzee
F
J. Zirkzee
F
12
K. Darlow
G
K. Darlow
G
37
K. Mainoo
13'
M
K. Mainoo
13'
M
6
Lisandro Martínez
D
Lisandro Martínez
D
15
L. Yoro
D
L. Yoro
D
9
M. Rashford
35'
F
M. Rashford
35'
F
31
S. Lacey
F
S. Lacey
F
Best on the pitch
K. Tzolakis
G · Hull
7.90
· 38 pass
N. Mendy
D · Hull
7.90
1 ⚽
1 shots
· 19 pass
S. Ajayi
D · Hull
7.50
1 ⚽
1 shots
· 16 pass
J. Egan
D · Hull
7.30
· 31 pass
Andrey Santos
M · Manchester
7.20
· 57 pass
H. Maguire
D · Manchester
7.00
· 63 pass
Hull City — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K. Tzolakis | G | 80 | 7.90 | — | — | — | 38 | 14% | — | — | — |
| R. Giles | D | 80 | 7.00 | — | — | — | 16 | 11% | 1 | — | — |
| N. Mendy | D | 64 | 7.90 | 1 | — | 1 | 19 | 18% | — | — | — |
| J. Egan | D | 80 | 7.30 | — | — | — | 31 | 25% | — | — | — |
| S. Ajayi | D | 64 | 7.50 | 1 | — | 1 | 16 | 14% | — | — | — |
| L. Coyle | D | 70 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 20 | 16% | 1 | — | — |
| E. Stroud | M | 71 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 8 | 6% | 3 | — | — |
| R. Slater | M | 80 | 7.00 | — | 1 | — | 16 | 15% | — | — | — |
| M. Crooks | M | 80 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 17 | 11% | 3 | 1 | — |
| M. Belloumi | M | 80 | 6.70 | — | — | 2 | 14 | 10% | 3 | — | — |
| O. McBurnie | F | 80 | 6.60 | — | — | 2 | 14 | 9% | — | — | — |
| Cody Drameh | D | 10 | 6.30 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | 1 | — | — |
| L. Herrington | D | 16 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 1 | 1% | — | — | — |
| L. Millar | F | 9 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 1 | 1% | — | — | — |
| P. McNair | D | 16 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 3 | 3% | — | — | — |
Manchester United — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Lammens | G | 80 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 13 | 8% | — | — | — |
| L. Shaw | D | 80 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 42 | 34% | 1 | — | — |
| A. Heaven | D | 80 | 6.30 | — | — | 1 | 51 | 49% | 1 | — | — |
| H. Maguire | D | 80 | 7.00 | — | — | — | 63 | 57% | — | — | — |
| N. Mazraoui | D | 80 | 6.20 | — | — | 1 | 67 | 62% | 1 | — | — |
| Andrey Santos | M | 67 | 7.20 | — | — | — | 57 | 52% | 1 | — | — |
| Y. Tielemans | M | 67 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 70 | 62% | — | — | — |
| P. Dorgu | M | 45 | 5.50 | — | — | 3 | 10 | 8% | — | 1 | — |
| Bruno Fernandes | M | 80 | 6.90 | — | — | 1 | 67 | 55% | — | — | — |
| B. Mbeumo | M | 80 | 6.30 | — | — | 3 | 37 | 31% | — | — | — |
| Matheus Cunha | F | 80 | 6.00 | — | — | 2 | 28 | 27% | — | — | — |
| B. Šeško | F | 13 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 2 | 2% | — | — | — |
| K. Mainoo | M | 13 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 10 | 10% | — | — | — |
| M. Rashford | F | 35 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 14 | 12% | — | — | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Hull City vs Manchester United?
The final score was Hull City 2–0 Manchester United.
What did the model predict before Hull City vs Manchester United?
The model assigned 28% probability to a Hull City win, 30% to a draw, and 40% to an Manchester United win.