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Championship · Final May 23, 2026 16:30 Wembley Stadium, London
Hull City
#6 · 73 pts
1 – 0
Final score
Middlesbrough
#5 · 80 pts
O. McBurnie 90'+5
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The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Middlesbrough a 43% win probability (draw 23%, Hull City 33%). The final result was Hull City 1–0 Middlesbrough. In 2 previous meetings, Hull City have won 1 times, with 0 draws and 1 wins for Middlesbrough.

Match statistics
6
Total shots
6
1
Shots on target
0
0.33
Actual xG
0.82
0
Saves
1
34%
Possession
66%
1
Corners
3
11
Tackles
8
Match Events
↕ L. Millar / J. Gelhardt
63'
70'
H. Hackney / D. Strelec ↕
76'
S. Hansen / R. McGree ↕
↕ R. Giles / Y. Hirakawa
76'
↕ M. Belloumi / C. Drameh
77'
⚽O. McBurnie
90'+5
O. McBurnie
90'+6
90'+7
C. Ibeh / M. Targett ↕
90'+7
J. Sarmiento / A. Browne ↕
↕ L. Coyle / P. McNair
90'+8
↕ R. Slater / J. Lundstram
90'+8
Pre-match prediction
33.71%
Hull ←
23.08%
X
43.21%
Middlesbrough
we assigned to the actual result (Hull City) 33.71% (low confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
Hull
1.65
0.33
-1.32
Middlesbrough
2.03
0.82
-1.21
Middlesbrough dominated by xG (0.82 vs 0.33). The final result does not reflect the playing dominance. The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
League Table
#Team GPts
1 Coventry Coventry 46 95
2 Ipswich Ipswich 46 84
3 Millwall Millwall 46 83
4 Southampton Southampton 46 80
5 Middlesbrough Middlesbrough 46 80
6 Hull City Hull City 46 73
7 Wrexham Wrexham 46 71
8 Derby Derby 46 69
9 Norwich Norwich 46 65
10 Birmingham Birmingham 46 64
11 Swansea Swansea 46 64
12 Bristol City Bristol City 46 62
13 Sheffield Utd Sheffield Utd 46 60
14 Preston Preston 46 60
15 QPR QPR 46 58
16 Watford Watford 46 57
17 Stoke City Stoke City 46 55
18 Portsmouth Portsmouth 46 55
19 Charlton Charlton 46 53
20 Blackburn Blackburn 46 52
21 West Brom West Brom 46 51
22 Oxford United Oxford United 46 47
23 Leicester Leicester 46 46
24 Sheffield Wednesday Sheffield Wednesday 46 0
Lineups
Hull City Hull City 3-4-2-1
1 Ivor Pandur Ivor Pandur 63' G 6.50
4 Charlie Hughes Charlie Hughes 63' D 6.90
15 John Egan John Egan 63' D 6.90
6 Semi Ajayi Semi Ajayi 63' D 6.60
3 R. Giles R. Giles 63' M 7.00
25 M. Crooks M. Crooks 63' M 6.90
27 Regan Slater Regan Slater 63' M 6.70
2 L. Coyle L. Coyle 63' M 6.90
7 Liam Millar Liam Millar 63' F 6.50
10 Mohamed Belloumi Mohamed Belloumi 63' F 6.70
9 O. McBurnie O. McBurnie 1 ⚽ 63' F 6.60
Bench
20 Amir Hadžiahmetović Amir Hadžiahmetović M
18 Cody Drameh Cody Drameh D
12 Dillon Phillips Dillon Phillips G
21 J. Gelhardt J. Gelhardt F
5 J. Lundstram J. Lundstram M
26 Kieran Dowell Kieran Dowell M
36 Lewis Koumas Lewis Koumas F
37 Paddy McNair Paddy McNair D
13 Yu Hirakawa Yu Hirakawa F
Middlesbrough Middlesbrough 3-4-2-1
31 Solomon Brynn Solomon Brynn 63' G 6.90
29 Adilson Malanda Adilson Malanda 63' D 6.90
6 Dael Fry Dael Fry 63' D 7.00
12 Luke Ayling Luke Ayling 63' D 7.20
3 Matt Targett Matt Targett 63' M 6.20
18 Aidan Morris Aidan Morris 63' M 6.90
16 Alan Browne Alan Browne 63' M 6.90
2 Callum Brittain Callum Brittain 63' M 6.90
8 Riley McGree Riley McGree 63' F 6.90
11 M. Whittaker M. Whittaker 63' F 5.70
13
David Strelec 63' F 6.00
Bench
14 Alexander Gilbert Alexander Gilbert F
44 Cruz Ibeh Cruz Ibeh F
25 George Edmundson George Edmundson D
7 H. Hackney H. Hackney M
45 Jeremy Sarmiento Jeremy Sarmiento M
32 Joe Wildsmith Joe Wildsmith G
23 Leo Castledine Leo Castledine M
22 Samuel Silvera Samuel Silvera F
27 Sontje Hansen Sontje Hansen F
Best on the pitch
Luke Ayling
Luke Ayling
D · Middlesbrough
7.20
· 67 pass
Dael Fry
Dael Fry
D · Middlesbrough
7.00
1 shots · 52 pass
R. Giles
R. Giles
M · Hull
7.00
1 shots · 19 pass
Aidan Morris
Aidan Morris
M · Middlesbrough
6.90
1 shots · 60 pass
Alan Browne
Alan Browne
M · Middlesbrough
6.90
1 shots · 25 pass
Adilson Malanda
Adilson Malanda
D · Middlesbrough
6.90
· 55 pass
Hull City Hull City — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
Ivor Pandur G 63 6.50 — — — 29 10% — — —
Charlie Hughes D 63 6.90 — — — 28 21% 1 — —
John Egan D 63 6.90 — — — 13 10% 1 — —
Semi Ajayi D 63 6.60 — — — 16 11% 1 — —
R. Giles M 63 7.00 — — 1 19 14% 2 — —
M. Crooks M 63 6.90 — — 1 17 16% 3 — —
Regan Slater M 63 6.70 — — — 19 15% 2 — —
L. Coyle M 63 6.90 — — 1 12 10% 1 — —
Liam Millar F 63 6.50 — — — 18 14% — — —
Mohamed Belloumi F 63 6.70 — — 2 14 9% — — —
O. McBurnie F 63 6.60 1 — 1 17 12% — — —
Middlesbrough Middlesbrough — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
Solomon Brynn G 63 6.90 — — — 7 5% — — —
Adilson Malanda D 63 6.90 — — — 55 52% — — —
Dael Fry D 63 7.00 — — 1 52 44% 1 — —
Luke Ayling D 63 7.20 — — — 67 56% 3 — —
Matt Targett M 63 6.20 — — — 34 26% — — —
Aidan Morris M 63 6.90 — — 1 60 57% 2 — —
Alan Browne M 63 6.90 — — 1 25 23% — — —
Callum Brittain M 63 6.90 — — — 32 25% 1 — —
Riley McGree F 63 6.90 — — — 35 33% 1 — —
M. Whittaker F 63 5.70 — — 1 24 16% — — —
David Strelec F 63 6.00 — — 2 7 5% — — —
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Hull City vs Middlesbrough?
The final score was Hull City 1–0 Middlesbrough.
What did the model predict before Hull City vs Middlesbrough?
The model assigned 33% probability to a Hull City win, 23% to a draw, and 43% to an Middlesbrough win.