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Iceland - Bulgaria

UEFA Nations League October 03, 2026 18:00 Denka Big Swan Stadium, Niigata
Iceland
#2 · 0 pts
vs
Bulgaria
#3 · 0 pts
⚡ Pre-match analysis
24.77%
Win
Iceland
17.79%
Draw
57.45%
Win
Bulgaria
1.52
Expected xG
2.65
Most likely outcome
Bulgaria
57.45%
Probability
100.0%
1X2 accuracy · 2 predictions (3 months)

Market probabilities

Most likely result 1–2 (8.3%)
1X2 Result
1 25%
X 18%
2 57%
Double Chance
1X 43%
X2 75%
12 82%
Over / Under
Over 1.5 93%
Over 2.5 84%
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The ForzaPitch prediction gives Bulgaria a 57% win probability, against 17% for a draw and 24% for Iceland. Expected goals are 1.5 for Iceland and 2.6 for Bulgaria (total 4.2), with a 92% probability of Over 1.5 goals. The most likely scoreline is 1–2 at 8.3% probability.

Season Stats

Iceland
2W 1D 5L
Bulgaria
2W 3D 3L
Averages per game
1.5
Goals
0.6
2.2
Conceded
1.2
4.3
Shots OT
3.5
3.8
Corners
2.9
44%
Poss.
51%
Percentages
100%
O 1.5
50%
75%
O 2.5
38%
75%
BTTS
38%
25%
Clean Sht
50%
ℹ Based on the last 8 matches in UEFA Nations League. Bars use fixed scales (goals max 3.5, percentages 0–100%).

Venue Form

Goals signal (venue avg)
50%
O 3.5
50%
BTTS
Iceland
1W 1D 2L · at home
Bulgaria
1W 1D 2L · away
1.8
gls/g
0.5
2.2
Conceded
1.8
25%
Win %
25%
50%
Win or Draw
50%
100%
O 1.5
50%
75%
O 2.5
50%
75%
O 3.5
25%
75%
BTTS
25%
25%
Clean Sht
50%
0%
Failed to Score
50%
last 4
ℹ Home team's record in home matches only · Away team's record in away matches only.

Score Matrix

↕ Iceland Bulgaria →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0 1.5% 4.1% 5.4% 4.8% 3.2% 1.7%
1 2.3% 6.2% 8.2% 7.3% 4.8% 2.6%
2 1.8% 4.7% 6.3% 5.5% 3.7% 1.9%
3 0.9% 2.4% 3.2% 2.8% 1.9% 1.0%
4 0.3% 0.9% 1.2% 1.1% 0.7% 0.4%
5 0.1% 0.3% 0.4% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1%

Recent form

Iceland Iceland
L Kosovo 1–3
L Kosovo 2–1
L Wales 4–1
W Montenegro 0–2
L Türkiye 2–4
Bulgaria Bulgaria
L Rep. Of Ireland 2–1
L Rep. Of Ireland 1–2
D Belarus 1–1
W Luxembourg 0–1
L Northern Ireland 5–0
Away clean sheet (120 days) 23%

Playing profile

Iceland Iceland
Attack
18
Defence
44
Form
24
Bulgaria Bulgaria
Attack
35
Defence
60
Form
31
Indices on a 0–100 scale calculated by the model

UEFA Nations League , League C, Group 4

# Team G Pts
1 Luxembourg Luxembourg 0 0
2 Iceland Iceland 0 0
3 Bulgaria Bulgaria 0 0
4 Estonia Estonia 0 0

What's at stake · UEFA Nations League , League C, Group 4

Top 2 advance to the next round

Iceland Bulgaria
Current #2 #3
→ Iceland #1 #3
→ Draw #1 #2
→ Bulgaria #3 #1

Projected ranking after this match only. Goal difference tiebreakers not applied.

Frequently Asked Questions
Who will win Iceland vs Bulgaria?
The model gives Iceland a 24% win probability, 17% for a draw, and 57% for an Bulgaria win.
How many goals are expected in Iceland vs Bulgaria?
Expected goals: Iceland 1.5, Bulgaria 2.6 (total 4.2). Probability of over 1.5 goals: 92%.
What is the most likely score in Iceland vs Bulgaria?
1–2 is the most probable final score, with an estimated probability of 8.3%.