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Iceland - Estonia

UEFA Nations League September 26, 2026 18:00 Denka Big Swan Stadium, Niigata
Iceland
#2 · 0 pts
vs
Estonia
#4 · 0 pts
Weather at kick-off 🌤️ Mainly clear 29.7°C 💨 15 km/h 🌧️ 45% · Niigata
⚡ Pre-match analysis
56.37%
Win
Iceland
22.2%
Draw
21.43%
Win
Estonia
1.91
Expected xG
1.08
Most likely outcome
Iceland
56.37%
Probability
100.0%
1X2 accuracy · 2 predictions (3 months)

Market probabilities

Most likely result 1–1 (10.4%)
1X2 Result
1 56%
X 22%
2 21%
Double Chance
1X 79%
X2 44%
12 78%
Over / Under
Over 1.5 89%
Over 2.5 79%
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The ForzaPitch prediction gives Iceland a 56% win probability, against 22% for a draw and 21% for Estonia. Expected goals are 1.9 for Iceland and 1.1 for Estonia (total 3.0), with a 88% probability of Over 1.5 goals. The most likely scoreline is 1–1 at 10.4% probability.

Season Stats

Iceland
2W 1D 5L
Estonia
1W 1D 4L
Averages per game
1.5
Goals
0.5
2.2
Conceded
1.5
4.3
Shots OT
1.7
3.8
Corners
1.8
44%
Poss.
34%
Percentages
100%
O 1.5
50%
75%
O 2.5
50%
75%
BTTS
17%
25%
Clean Sht
17%
ℹ Based on the last 8 matches in UEFA Nations League. Bars use fixed scales (goals max 3.5, percentages 0–100%).

Venue Form

Goals signal (venue avg)
38%
O 3.5
38%
BTTS
Iceland
1W 1D 2L · at home
Estonia
0W 1D 2L · away
1.8
gls/g
0.0
2.2
Conceded
1.3
25%
Win %
0%
50%
Win or Draw
33%
100%
O 1.5
33%
75%
O 2.5
33%
75%
O 3.5
0%
75%
BTTS
0%
25%
Clean Sht
33%
0%
Failed to Score
100%
last 4
ℹ Home team's record in home matches only · Away team's record in away matches only.

Score Matrix

↕ Iceland Estonia →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0 5.0% 5.5% 2.9% 1.1% 0.3% 0.1%
1 9.6% 10.4% 5.6% 2.0% 0.5% 0.1%
2 9.2% 9.9% 5.4% 1.9% 0.5% 0.1%
3 5.8% 6.3% 3.4% 1.2% 0.3% 0.1%
4 2.8% 3.0% 1.6% 0.6% 0.2% —
5 1.1% 1.1% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1% —

Recent form

Iceland Iceland
L Kosovo 1–3
L Kosovo 2–1
L Wales 4–1
W Montenegro 0–2
L Türkiye 2–4
Estonia Estonia
L Slovakia 1–0
D Azerbaijan 0–0
L Sweden 0–3
W Azerbaijan 3–1
L Sweden 3–0

Playing profile

Iceland Iceland
Attack
18
Defence
44
Form
24
Estonia Estonia
Attack
16
Defence
49
Form
2
Indices on a 0–100 scale calculated by the model

UEFA Nations League , League C, Group 4

# Team G Pts
1 Luxembourg Luxembourg 0 0
2 Iceland Iceland 0 0
3 Bulgaria Bulgaria 0 0
4 Estonia Estonia 0 0

What's at stake · UEFA Nations League , League C, Group 4

Top 2 advance to the next round

Iceland Estonia
Current #2 #4
→ Iceland #1 #4
→ Draw #1 #2
→ Estonia #3 #1

Projected ranking after this match only. Goal difference tiebreakers not applied.

Frequently Asked Questions
Who will win Iceland vs Estonia?
The model gives Iceland a 56% win probability, 22% for a draw, and 21% for an Estonia win.
How many goals are expected in Iceland vs Estonia?
Expected goals: Iceland 1.9, Estonia 1.1 (total 3.0). Probability of over 1.5 goals: 88%.
What is the most likely score in Iceland vs Estonia?
1–1 is the most probable final score, with an estimated probability of 10.4%.