← K League 1

Incheon United - Gwangju FC

K League 1 May 16, 2026 12:00
Incheon United
#6 · 18 pts
vs
Gwangju FC
#12 · 7 pts
Weather at kick-off ☀️ Clear sky 18.3°C 💨 7 km/h · Incheon
⚡ Pre-match analysis
65.03%
Win
Incheon United
24.26%
Draw
10.71%
Win
Gwangju FC
1.53
Expected xG
0.3
Model prediction
Incheon United
65.03%
Probability
50.0%
1X2 accuracy · 10 predictions (3 months)

The ForzaPitch prediction gives Incheon United a 65% win probability, against 24% for a draw and 10% for Gwangju FC. Expected goals are 1.5 for Incheon United and 0.3 for Gwangju FC (total 1.8), with a 66% probability of Over 1.5 goals. The most likely scoreline is 1–0 at 24.6% probability. In 1 previous meetings, Incheon United have won 0 times, with 0 draws and 1 wins for Gwangju FC.

Score Matrix
↕ Incheon United Gwangju FC →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0 16.1% 4.8% 0.7% 0.1% — —
1 24.6% 7.4% 1.1% 0.1% — —
2 18.8% 5.6% 0.8% 0.1% — —
3 9.6% 2.9% 0.4% — — —
4 3.7% 1.1% 0.2% — — —
5 1.1% 0.3% 0.1% — — —
Recent form
Incheon United Incheon United
L Pohang Steelers 0–1
W Gimcheon Sangmu FC 0–3
D Daejeon Citizen 0–0
L Gangwon FC 0–1
W Jeju United FC 1–0
Clean sheet in casa (120gg) 20%
Gwangju FC Gwangju FC
L FC Seoul 0–1
D Gangwon FC 0–0
L Jeonbuk Motors 4–0
L Daejeon Citizen 0–5
L FC Anyang 2–5
Clean sheet in trasferta (120gg) 20%
Playing profile
Incheon United Incheon United
Attack
27
Defence
76
Form
49
Gwangju FC Gwangju FC
Attack
9
Defence
41
Form
19
Indices on a 0–100 scale calculated by the model
Head-to-Head
0
Incheon United
0
Draw
1
Gwangju FC
L 7 Mar 2026 K League 1 2–3
League Table
# Team G Pts
1 FC Seoul FC Seoul 14 29
2 Ulsan Hyundai FC Ulsan Hyundai FC 14 26
3 Jeonbuk Motors Jeonbuk Motors 14 23
4 Pohang Steelers Pohang Steelers 14 22
5 Gangwon FC Gangwon FC 14 21
6 Incheon United Incheon United 14 18
7 Jeju United FC Jeju United FC 14 18
8 FC Anyang FC Anyang 14 17
9 Daejeon Citizen Daejeon Citizen 14 16
10 Gimcheon Sangmu FC Gimcheon Sangmu FC 14 14
11 Bucheon FC 1995 Bucheon FC 1995 14 14
12 Gwangju FC Gwangju FC 14 7
Frequently Asked Questions
Who will win Incheon United vs Gwangju FC?
The model gives Incheon United a 65% win probability, 24% for a draw, and 10% for an Gwangju FC win.
How many goals are expected in Incheon United vs Gwangju FC?
Expected goals: Incheon United 1.5, Gwangju FC 0.3 (total 1.8). Probability of over 1.5 goals: 66%.
What is the most likely score in Incheon United vs Gwangju FC?
1–0 is the most probable final score, with an estimated probability of 24.6%.