Copa Libertadores
· Group Stage - 3
May 01, 2026 00:00
✓Model correct — prediction Independ. Rivadavia
Alex Arce
(ast. Matías Fernández)
27'
Alex Arce
(ast. Sebastián Villa)
45'+2
Sebastián Villa
45'
(pen.)
Alex Arce
(ast. José Florentín)
64'
32'
(ast. Franco Cáceres)
Guillermo Ortíz
The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Independ. Rivadavia a 69% win probability (draw 19%, Deportivo La Guaira 10%). The final result was Independ. Rivadavia 4–1 Deportivo La Guaira. In 1 previous meetings, Independ. Rivadavia have won 1 times, with 0 draws and 0 wins for Deportivo La Guaira.
Match statistics
12
Total shots
4
5
Shots on target
2
3.37
Actual xG
0.26
1
Saves
1
53%
Possession
47%
4
Corners
2
12
Tackles
17
1
🟨 Yellow cards
0
Match Events
⚽Alex Arce
· ast. Matías Fernández
27'
32'
ast. Franco Cáceres ·
Guillermo Ortíz⚽
⚽Alex Arce
· ast. Sebastián Villa
45'+2
⚽Sebastián Villa
(pen.)
45'
Ezequiel Bonifacio
47'
53'
Juan Castellanos
/
Franco Cáceres
54'
Carlos Faya
/
José Correa
54'
Alexis Rodríguez
/
Flabian Londoño
⚽Alex Arce
· ast. José Florentín
64'
73'
Fabrizio Sartori
/ Rodrigo Atencio
76'
Ezequiel Bonifacio
/ Juan Manuel Elordi
76'
79'
Yackson Rivas
/
José Alí Meza
79'
Cesar Da Silva
/
Juan Perdomo
Alex Arce
/ Victorio Ramis
82'
José Florentín
/ Leonel Bucca
82'
Matías Fernández
/ Gonzalo Ríos
87'
Pre-match prediction
69.49%
Independ. ←
19.96%
X
10.55%
Deportivo
✓ Correct prediction —
we assigned to the actual result (Independ. Rivadavia)
69.49%
(high confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
1.90
3.37
+1.47
0.49
0.26
-0.23
Independ. Rivadavia dominated by xG (3.37 vs 0.26).
The final result reflects the playing dominance.
The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
Lineups
1
Nicolás Bolcato
G
Nicolás Bolcato
G
14
L. Gómez
D
L. Gómez
D
42
S. Studer
D
S. Studer
D
40
I. Villalba
D
I. Villalba
D
36
E. Bonifacio
76'
D
E. Bonifacio
76'
D
25
J. Florentín
1 👟
82'
M
J. Florentín
1 👟
82'
M
5
T. Bottari
M
T. Bottari
M
22
S. Villa
1 ⚽
1 👟
M
S. Villa
1 ⚽
1 👟
M
43
F. Sartori
76'
M
F. Sartori
76'
M
10
M. Fernández
1 👟
87'
M
M. Fernández
1 👟
87'
M
9
Alex Arce
3 ⚽
82'
F
Alex Arce
3 ⚽
82'
F
Bench
13
A. Osella
D
A. Osella
D
20
A. Riep
M
A. Riep
M
27
D. Crego
M
D. Crego
M
11
G. Ríos
7'
M
G. Ríos
7'
M
3
J. Elordi
18'
D
J. Elordi
18'
D
8
L. Bucca
12'
M
L. Bucca
12'
M
2
L. Costa
D
L. Costa
D
19
R. Atencio
18'
F
R. Atencio
18'
F
34
S. Moreyra
M
S. Moreyra
M
7
V. Ramis
12'
F
V. Ramis
12'
F
1
Cristopher Varela
G
Cristopher Varela
G
20
J. Gutiérrez
D
J. Gutiérrez
D
3
Diego Osío
D
24
G. Ortiz
1 ⚽
D
16
L. Peña
D
13
R. Ibarra
M
7
J. Meza
79'
M
8
J. Perdomo
79'
M
27
J. Correa
54'
M
32
Franco Cáceres
1 👟
53'
M
Franco Cáceres
1 👟
53'
M
36
F. Londoño
54'
F
Bench
21
Alexis Rodríguez
40'
F
Alexis Rodríguez
40'
F
9
A. Uribe
F
6
Carlos Faya
40'
M
Carlos Faya
40'
M
14
C. Da Silva
15'
M
19
Genderson Ascanio
D
Genderson Ascanio
D
10
J. Castellanos
41'
M
5
M. Gianoli
D
33
N. Hernández
D
18
Yackson Rivas
15'
F
Best on the pitch
S. Villa
M · Independ.
9.50
1 ⚽ 1 👟
2 shots
· 32 pass
Alex Arce
F · Independ.
9.20
3 ⚽
6 shots
· 10 pass
G. Ortiz
D · Deportivo
7.30
1 ⚽
1 shots
· 37 pass
S. Studer
D · Independ.
7.20
· 45 pass
T. Bottari
M · Independ.
7.20
· 45 pass
L. Gómez
D · Independ.
6.90
· 32 pass
Independ. Rivadavia — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nicolás Bolcato | G | 94 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 22 | 10% | — | — | — |
| L. Gómez | D | 94 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 32 | 24% | 2 | — | — |
| S. Studer | D | 94 | 7.20 | — | — | — | 45 | 39% | 1 | — | — |
| I. Villalba | D | 94 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 40 | 32% | 1 | — | — |
| E. Bonifacio | D | 76 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 24 | 17% | — | 1 | — |
| J. Florentín | M | 82 | 6.90 | — | 1 | 1 | 31 | 27% | 1 | — | — |
| T. Bottari | M | 94 | 7.20 | — | — | — | 45 | 39% | 6 | — | — |
| S. Villa | M | 94 | 9.50 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 32 | 29% | — | — | — |
| F. Sartori | M | 76 | 6.20 | — | — | 1 | 15 | 13% | — | — | — |
| M. Fernández | M | 87 | 6.90 | — | 1 | 2 | 36 | 25% | 1 | — | — |
| Alex Arce | F | 82 | 9.20 | 3 | — | 6 | 10 | 8% | — | — | — |
| G. Ríos | M | 7 | — | — | — | — | 3 | 3% | — | — | — |
| J. Elordi | D | 18 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 6 | 6% | — | — | — |
| L. Bucca | M | 12 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 1 | 1% | — | — | — |
| R. Atencio | F | 18 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 4 | 4% | — | — | — |
| V. Ramis | F | 12 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 5 | 4% | — | — | — |
Deportivo La Guaira — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cristopher Varela | G | 94 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 22 | 17% | — | — | — |
| J. Gutiérrez | D | 94 | 5.70 | — | — | — | 46 | 38% | 1 | — | — |
| Diego Osío | D | 94 | 5.70 | — | — | 1 | 37 | 28% | 3 | — | — |
| G. Ortiz | D | 94 | 7.30 | 1 | — | 1 | 37 | 28% | 1 | — | — |
| L. Peña | D | 94 | 5.00 | — | — | — | 16 | 13% | 2 | — | — |
| R. Ibarra | M | 94 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 36 | 35% | 1 | — | — |
| J. Meza | M | 79 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 17 | 14% | 1 | — | — |
| J. Perdomo | M | 79 | 6.60 | — | — | 1 | 28 | 26% | 1 | — | — |
| J. Correa | M | 54 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 15 | 15% | — | — | — |
| Franco Cáceres | M | 53 | 6.50 | — | 1 | 1 | 11 | 8% | 1 | — | — |
| F. Londoño | F | 54 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 13 | 9% | — | — | — |
| Alexis Rodríguez | F | 40 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 6 | 5% | 1 | — | — |
| Carlos Faya | M | 40 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 20 | 16% | 1 | — | — |
| C. Da Silva | M | 15 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 7 | 6% | 2 | — | — |
| J. Castellanos | M | 41 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 12 | 8% | 2 | — | — |
| Yackson Rivas | F | 15 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 3 | 2% | — | — | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Independ. Rivadavia vs Deportivo La Guaira?
The final score was Independ. Rivadavia 4–1 Deportivo La Guaira.
What did the model predict before Independ. Rivadavia vs Deportivo La Guaira?
The model assigned 69% probability to a Independ. Rivadavia win, 19% to a draw, and 10% to an Deportivo La Guaira win.