Copa Libertadores
· Group Stage - 3
May 01, 2026 00:00
✓Model correct — prediction Independ. Rivadavia
Alex Arce
(ast. Matías Fernández)
27'
Alex Arce
(ast. Sebastián Villa)
45'+2
Sebastián Villa
45'
(pen.)
Alex Arce
(ast. José Florentín)
64'
32'
(ast. Franco Cáceres)
Guillermo Ortíz
The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Independ. Rivadavia a 69% win probability (draw 19%, Deportivo La Guaira 10%). The final result was Independ. Rivadavia 4–1 Deportivo La Guaira.
Match statistics
12
Total shots
4
5
Shots on target
2
3.37
Actual xG
0.26
1
Saves
1
53%
Possession
47%
4
Corners
2
12
Tackles
17
1
🟨 Yellow cards
0
Match Events
⚽Alex Arce
· ast. Matías Fernández
27'
32'
ast. Franco Cáceres ·
Guillermo Ortíz⚽
⚽Alex Arce
· ast. Sebastián Villa
45'+2
⚽Sebastián Villa
(pen.)
45'
Ezequiel Bonifacio
47'
53'
Juan Castellanos
/
Franco Cáceres
54'
Carlos Faya
/
José Correa
54'
Alexis Rodríguez
/
Flabian Londoño
⚽Alex Arce
· ast. José Florentín
64'
73'
Fabrizio Sartori
/ Rodrigo Atencio
76'
Ezequiel Bonifacio
/ Juan Manuel Elordi
76'
79'
Yackson Rivas
/
José Alí Meza
79'
Cesar Da Silva
/
Juan Perdomo
Alex Arce
/ Victorio Ramis
82'
José Florentín
/ Leonel Bucca
82'
Matías Fernández
/ Gonzalo Ríos
87'
Pre-match prediction
69.49%
Independ. ←
19.96%
X
10.55%
Deportivo
✓ Correct prediction —
we assigned to the actual result (Independ. Rivadavia)
69.49%
(high confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
1.90
3.37
+1.47
0.49
0.26
-0.23
Independ. Rivadavia dominated by xG (3.37 vs 0.26).
The final result reflects the playing dominance.
The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
Lineups
1
Nicolás Bolcato
G
Nicolás Bolcato
G
14
Luciano Gómez
D
Luciano Gómez
D
42
Sheyko Studer
D
Sheyko Studer
D
40
Iván Villalba
D
Iván Villalba
D
36
Ezequiel Bonifacio
76'
D
Ezequiel Bonifacio
76'
D
25
José Florentín
1 👟
82'
M
José Florentín
1 👟
82'
M
5
Tomas Bottari
M
Tomas Bottari
M
22
S. Villa
1 ⚽
1 👟
M
S. Villa
1 ⚽
1 👟
M
43
F. Sartori
76'
M
F. Sartori
76'
M
10
M. Fernández
1 👟
87'
M
M. Fernández
1 👟
87'
M
9
A. Arce
3 ⚽
82'
F
A. Arce
3 ⚽
82'
F
Bench
13
Alejo Osella
D
Alejo Osella
D
20
Alessandro Riep
M
Alessandro Riep
M
27
Diego Crego
M
Diego Crego
M
11
Gonzalo Ríos
7'
M
Gonzalo Ríos
7'
M
3
Juan Manuel Elordi
18'
D
Juan Manuel Elordi
18'
D
2
Leonard Costa
D
Leonard Costa
D
8
Leonel Bucca
12'
M
Leonel Bucca
12'
M
19
R. Atencio
18'
F
R. Atencio
18'
F
34
Stefano Moreyra
M
Stefano Moreyra
M
7
Victorio Ramis
12'
F
Victorio Ramis
12'
F
1
Cristopher Varela
G
20
J. Gutiérrez
D
J. Gutiérrez
D
3
D. Osio
D
24
G. Ortiz
1 ⚽
D
16
Luis Pena
D
13
R. Ibarra
M
7
J. Meza
79'
M
8
J. Perdomo
79'
M
27
J. Correa
54'
M
32
F. Caceres
1 👟
53'
M
36
Flabian Londoño
54'
F
Bench
9
Anthony Uribe
F
21
A. Rodriguez
40'
F
6
Carlos Faya
40'
M
14
C. Da Silva
15'
M
19
G. Ascanio
D
10
J. Castellanos
41'
M
5
M. Gianoli
D
33
N. Hernandez
D
18
Y. Rivas
15'
F
Best on the pitch
S. Villa
M · Independ.
9.50
1 ⚽ 1 👟
2 shots
· 32 pass
A. Arce
F · Independ.
9.20
3 ⚽
6 shots
· 10 pass
G. Ortiz
D · Deportivo
7.30
1 ⚽
1 shots
· 37 pass
Sheyko Studer
D · Independ.
7.20
· 45 pass
Tomas Bottari
M · Independ.
7.20
· 45 pass
Luciano Gómez
D · Independ.
6.90
· 32 pass
Independ. Rivadavia — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nicolás Bolcato | G | 94 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 22 | 10% | — | — | — |
| Luciano Gómez | D | 94 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 32 | 24% | 2 | — | — |
| Sheyko Studer | D | 94 | 7.20 | — | — | — | 45 | 39% | 1 | — | — |
| Iván Villalba | D | 94 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 40 | 32% | 1 | — | — |
| Ezequiel Bonifacio | D | 76 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 24 | 17% | — | 1 | — |
| José Florentín | M | 82 | 6.90 | — | 1 | 1 | 31 | 27% | 1 | — | — |
| Tomas Bottari | M | 94 | 7.20 | — | — | — | 45 | 39% | 6 | — | — |
| S. Villa | M | 94 | 9.50 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 32 | 29% | — | — | — |
| F. Sartori | M | 76 | 6.20 | — | — | 1 | 15 | 13% | — | — | — |
| M. Fernández | M | 87 | 6.90 | — | 1 | 2 | 36 | 25% | 1 | — | — |
| A. Arce | F | 82 | 9.20 | 3 | — | 6 | 10 | 8% | — | — | — |
| Gonzalo Ríos | M | 7 | — | — | — | — | 3 | 3% | — | — | — |
| Juan Manuel Elordi | D | 18 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 6 | 6% | — | — | — |
| Leonel Bucca | M | 12 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 1 | 1% | — | — | — |
| R. Atencio | F | 18 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 4 | 4% | — | — | — |
| Victorio Ramis | F | 12 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 5 | 4% | — | — | — |
Deportivo La Guaira — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cristopher Varela | G | 94 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 22 | 17% | — | — | — |
| J. Gutiérrez | D | 94 | 5.70 | — | — | — | 46 | 38% | 1 | — | — |
| D. Osio | D | 94 | 5.70 | — | — | 1 | 37 | 28% | 3 | — | — |
| G. Ortiz | D | 94 | 7.30 | 1 | — | 1 | 37 | 28% | 1 | — | — |
| Luis Pena | D | 94 | 5.00 | — | — | — | 16 | 13% | 2 | — | — |
| R. Ibarra | M | 94 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 36 | 35% | 1 | — | — |
| J. Meza | M | 79 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 17 | 14% | 1 | — | — |
| J. Perdomo | M | 79 | 6.60 | — | — | 1 | 28 | 26% | 1 | — | — |
| J. Correa | M | 54 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 15 | 15% | — | — | — |
| F. Caceres | M | 53 | 6.50 | — | 1 | 1 | 11 | 8% | 1 | — | — |
| Flabian Londoño | F | 54 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 13 | 9% | — | — | — |
| A. Rodriguez | F | 40 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 6 | 5% | 1 | — | — |
| Carlos Faya | M | 40 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 20 | 16% | 1 | — | — |
| C. Da Silva | M | 15 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 7 | 6% | 2 | — | — |
| J. Castellanos | M | 41 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 12 | 8% | 2 | — | — |
| Y. Rivas | F | 15 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 3 | 2% | — | — | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Independ. Rivadavia vs Deportivo La Guaira?
The final score was Independ. Rivadavia 4–1 Deportivo La Guaira.
What did the model predict before Independ. Rivadavia vs Deportivo La Guaira?
The model assigned 69% probability to a Independ. Rivadavia win, 19% to a draw, and 10% to an Deportivo La Guaira win.