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← Copa Libertadores

Independiente del Valle - Deportes Tolima

Copa Libertadores August 18, 2026 22:00
Independiente del Valle
#1 · 13 pts
vs
Deportes Tolima
#2 · 8 pts
⚡ Pre-match analysis
64.36%
Win
Independiente del Valle
17.39%
Draw
18.25%
Win
Deportes Tolima
4.5
Expected xG
1.14
Most likely outcome
Independiente del Valle
64.36%
Probability
70.6%
1X2 accuracy · 17 predictions (3 months)

Market probabilities

Most likely result 3–1 (8.29%)
1X2 Result ✓ 70.6% hit rate (17 picks)
1 64%
X 17%
2 18%
Double Chance
1X 82%
X2 36%
12 83%
Over / Under
Over 1.5 81%
Over 2.5 71%
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The ForzaPitch prediction gives Independiente del Valle a 64% win probability, against 17% for a draw and 18% for Deportes Tolima. Expected goals are 4.5 for Independiente del Valle and 1.1 for Deportes Tolima (total 5.6), with a 81% probability of Over 1.5 goals. The most likely scoreline is 3–1 at 8.29% probability.

Season Stats

Independiente del Valle
4W 1D 1L
Deportes Tolima
4W 2D 4L
Averages per game
1.8
Goals
1.0
1.0
Conceded
0.8
7.3
Shots OT
4.5
7.5
Corners
4.3
59%
Poss.
59%
Percentages
67%
O 1.5
50%
50%
O 2.5
40%
50%
BTTS
10%
33%
Clean Sht
60%
ℹ Based on the last 10 matches in Copa Libertadores. Bars use fixed scales (goals max 3.5, percentages 0–100%).

Venue Form

Goals signal (venue avg)
44%
O 3.5
44%
BTTS
Independiente del Valle
3W 0D 0L · at home
Deportes Tolima
1W 1D 3L · away
2.7
gls/g
0.4
0.7
Conceded
1.4
100%
Win %
20%
100%
Win or Draw
40%
67%
O 1.5
40%
67%
O 2.5
40%
67%
O 3.5
20%
67%
BTTS
20%
33%
Clean Sht
40%
0%
Failed to Score
60%
last 5
ℹ Home team's record in home matches only · Away team's record in away matches only.

Score Matrix

↕ Independiente del Valle Deportes Tolima →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0 0.4% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% — —
1 1.6% 1.8% 1.0% 0.4% 0.1% —
2 3.6% 4.1% 2.3% 0.9% 0.3% 0.1%
3 5.4% 6.2% 3.5% 1.3% 0.4% 0.1%
4 6.1% 6.9% 3.9% 1.5% 0.4% 0.1%
5 5.5% 6.2% 3.5% 1.3% 0.4% 0.1%

Recent form

Independiente del Valle Independiente del Valle
W Rosario Central 1–0
W Libertad Asuncion 4–1
L UCV 2–0
W Libertad Asuncion 2–3
W UCV 3–1
Home clean sheet (120 days) 40%
Deportes Tolima Deportes Tolima
D Universitario 0–0
L Coquimbo Unido 3–0
W Club Nacional 3–0
W Coquimbo Unido 3–0
L Club Nacional 3–1
Away clean sheet (120 days) 33%

Playing profile

Independiente del Valle Independiente del Valle
Attack
76
Defence
82
Form
86
Deportes Tolima Deportes Tolima
Attack
35
Defence
68
Form
55
Indices on a 0–100 scale calculated by the model
Frequently Asked Questions
Who will win Independiente del Valle vs Deportes Tolima?
The model gives Independiente del Valle a 64% win probability, 17% for a draw, and 18% for an Deportes Tolima win.
How many goals are expected in Independiente del Valle vs Deportes Tolima?
Expected goals: Independiente del Valle 4.5, Deportes Tolima 1.1 (total 5.6). Probability of over 1.5 goals: 81%.
What is the most likely score in Independiente del Valle vs Deportes Tolima?
3–1 is the most probable final score, with an estimated probability of 8.29%.