Copa Libertadores
· Group Stage - 5
May 20, 2026 04:00
✓Model correct — prediction Independiente del Valle
J. Sornoza
38'
C. Gonzalez
(ast. J. Sornoza)
43'
J. Lerma
64'
D. Reasco
(ast. M. Perello)
90'+5
45'+3
L. Melgarejo
The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Independiente del Valle a 55% win probability (draw 25%, Libertad Asuncion 19%). The final result was Independiente del Valle 4–1 Libertad Asuncion. In 1 previous meetings, Independiente del Valle have won 1 times, with 0 draws and 0 wins for Libertad Asuncion.
Match statistics
17
Total shots
5
8
Shots on target
4
2.44
Actual xG
0.30
3
Saves
4
63%
Possession
37%
8
Corners
4
15
Tackles
18
0
🟨 Yellow cards
1
Match Events
⚽J. Sornoza
38'
⚽C. Gonzalez
· ast. J. Sornoza
43'
45'+3
L. Melgarejo⚽
46'
J. Bernal
/
R. Rojas
56'
⚽J. Lerma
64'
66'
J. Recalde
/
A. Fretes
66'
G. Aguilar
/
F. Carrizo
68'
G. Aguilar
73'
H. Caballero
/
T. Fernandez
J. Lerma
/ R. Briones
74'
79'
R. Villalba
/
M. Fernandez
E. Pata
/ M. Perello
81'
J. Sornoza
/ Y. Ochoa
81'
J. Alcivar
/ J. Mendez
84'
C. Gonzalez
/ D. Reasco
84'
⚽D. Reasco
· ast. M. Perello
90'+5
Pre-match prediction
55.64%
Independiente ←
25.09%
X
19.27%
Libertad
✓ Correct prediction —
we assigned to the actual result (Independiente del Valle)
55.64%
(medium confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
1.46
2.44
+0.98
0.76
0.30
-0.46
Independiente del Valle dominated by xG (2.44 vs 0.30).
The final result reflects the playing dominance.
The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
Lineups
1
A. Quintana
G
A. Quintana
G
19
L. Loor
D
L. Loor
D
23
J. Viacava
D
J. Viacava
D
14
M. Carabajal
D
M. Carabajal
D
13
Daykol Alejandro Romero Padilla
D
Daykol Alejandro Romero Padilla
D
6
J. Alcívar
84'
M
J. Alcívar
84'
M
31
Emerson Ivan Pata Rodríguez
81'
M
Emerson Ivan Pata Rodríguez
81'
M
10
J. Sornoza
1 ⚽
1 👟
81'
M
J. Sornoza
1 ⚽
1 👟
81'
M
53
Justin Lerma
74'
M
Justin Lerma
74'
M
17
A. Rodríguez
M
A. Rodríguez
M
9
C. González
1 ⚽
84'
F
C. González
1 ⚽
84'
F
Bench
20
A. Gómez
M
A. Gómez
M
33
Andy René Velasco García
D
Andy René Velasco García
D
55
Darwin Guagua
M
Darwin Guagua
M
99
D. Reasco
1 ⚽
11'
F
D. Reasco
1 ⚽
11'
F
12
Eduardo David Bores Díaz
G
Eduardo David Bores Díaz
G
15
G. Cortéz
D
G. Cortéz
D
50
J. Angulo
F
J. Angulo
F
4
J. Espinoza
D
J. Espinoza
D
32
J. Méndez
11'
M
J. Méndez
11'
M
11
M. Perelló
1 👟
14'
F
M. Perelló
1 👟
14'
F
16
R. Briones
21'
M
R. Briones
21'
M
8
Y. Ochoa
14'
M
Y. Ochoa
14'
M
25
Ángel González
G
Ángel González
G
4
N. Giménez
D
N. Giménez
D
5
Diego Viera
D
Diego Viera
D
31
Thiago Fernandez
73'
D
Thiago Fernandez
73'
D
3
R. Rojas
45'
D
R. Rojas
45'
D
14
A. Fretes
66'
M
A. Fretes
66'
M
6
Á. Campuzano
M
Á. Campuzano
M
21
Lucas Sanabria
M
Lucas Sanabria
M
28
Marcelo Fernandez
79'
M
Marcelo Fernandez
79'
M
8
F. Carrizo
66'
F
F. Carrizo
66'
F
10
L. Melgarejo
1 ⚽
F
L. Melgarejo
1 ⚽
F
Bench
27
A. Molinas
M
A. Molinas
M
33
Cristhian Martínez
M
Cristhian Martínez
M
40
Fernando Herrera
D
Fernando Herrera
D
11
G. Aguilar
29'
F
G. Aguilar
29'
F
26
Hernesto Caballero
22'
M
Hernesto Caballero
22'
M
22
H. Martínez
M
H. Martínez
M
13
Joaquin Bogarin
M
Joaquin Bogarin
M
19
J. Recalde
29'
M
J. Recalde
29'
M
37
Juan Bernal
50'
D
Juan Bernal
50'
D
30
O. Acuña
F
O. Acuña
F
24
Rodrigo Villalba
16'
D
Rodrigo Villalba
16'
D
29
Victor Rojas
G
Victor Rojas
G
Best on the pitch
Justin Lerma
M · Independiente
8.50
2 shots
· 24 pass
J. Sornoza
M · Independiente
8.20
1 ⚽ 1 👟
3 shots
· 45 pass
Á. Campuzano
M · Libertad
7.70
· 34 pass
M. Perelló
F · Independiente
7.60
1 👟
· 7 pass
L. Melgarejo
F · Libertad
7.50
1 ⚽
1 shots
· 20 pass
M. Carabajal
D · Independiente
7.50
1 shots
· 75 pass
Independiente del Valle — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Quintana | G | 95 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 19 | 19% | — | — | — |
| L. Loor | D | 95 | 7.00 | — | — | 1 | 50 | 44% | 1 | — | — |
| J. Viacava | D | 95 | 7.00 | — | — | — | 64 | 54% | — | — | — |
| M. Carabajal | D | 95 | 7.50 | — | — | 1 | 75 | 69% | 4 | — | — |
| Daykol Alejandro Romero Padilla | D | 95 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 47 | 38% | 1 | — | — |
| J. Alcívar | M | 84 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 46 | 44% | — | — | — |
| Emerson Ivan Pata Rodríguez | M | 81 | 7.00 | — | — | 2 | 46 | 40% | 1 | — | — |
| J. Sornoza | M | 81 | 8.20 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 45 | 42% | — | — | — |
| Justin Lerma | M | 74 | 8.50 | — | — | 2 | 24 | 22% | 1 | — | — |
| A. Rodríguez | M | 95 | 7.00 | — | — | 1 | 42 | 33% | — | — | — |
| C. González | F | 84 | 7.30 | 1 | — | 5 | 10 | 9% | 1 | — | — |
| D. Reasco | F | 11 | 7.20 | 1 | — | 2 | 2 | 1% | 1 | — | — |
| J. Méndez | M | 11 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 10 | 10% | 2 | — | — |
| M. Perelló | F | 14 | 7.60 | — | 1 | — | 7 | 6% | 2 | — | — |
| R. Briones | M | 21 | 7.20 | — | — | — | 11 | 11% | 1 | — | — |
| Y. Ochoa | M | 14 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 7 | 7% | — | — | — |
Libertad Asuncion — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ángel González | G | 95 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 38 | 25% | — | — | — |
| N. Giménez | D | 95 | 5.30 | — | — | — | 14 | 10% | 1 | — | — |
| Diego Viera | D | 95 | 5.90 | — | — | — | 41 | 37% | — | — | — |
| Thiago Fernandez | D | 73 | 5.90 | — | — | — | 23 | 16% | 1 | — | — |
| R. Rojas | D | 45 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 9 | 7% | — | — | — |
| A. Fretes | M | 66 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 7 | 6% | 1 | — | — |
| Á. Campuzano | M | 95 | 7.70 | — | — | — | 34 | 31% | 6 | — | — |
| Lucas Sanabria | M | 95 | 6.30 | — | — | 1 | 35 | 27% | 3 | — | — |
| Marcelo Fernandez | M | 79 | 6.20 | — | — | 1 | 15 | 10% | 2 | — | — |
| F. Carrizo | F | 66 | 6.30 | — | — | 1 | 26 | 17% | 1 | — | — |
| L. Melgarejo | F | 95 | 7.50 | 1 | — | 1 | 20 | 14% | — | — | — |
| G. Aguilar | F | 29 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 6 | 5% | — | 1 | — |
| Hernesto Caballero | M | 22 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 13 | 10% | 1 | — | — |
| J. Recalde | M | 29 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 12 | 10% | — | — | — |
| Juan Bernal | D | 50 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 11 | 9% | 1 | — | — |
| Rodrigo Villalba | D | 16 | 6.30 | — | — | 1 | 3 | 3% | 1 | — | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Independiente del Valle vs Libertad Asuncion?
The final score was Independiente del Valle 4–1 Libertad Asuncion.
What did the model predict before Independiente del Valle vs Libertad Asuncion?
The model assigned 55% probability to a Independiente del Valle win, 25% to a draw, and 19% to an Libertad Asuncion win.