Copa Libertadores
· Group Stage - 5
May 20, 2026 04:00
✓Model correct — prediction Independiente del Valle
J. Sornoza
38'
C. Gonzalez
(ast. J. Sornoza)
43'
J. Lerma
64'
D. Reasco
(ast. M. Perello)
90'+5
45'+3
L. Melgarejo
The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Independiente del Valle a 55% win probability (draw 25%, Libertad Asuncion 19%). The final result was Independiente del Valle 4–1 Libertad Asuncion. In 1 previous meetings, Independiente del Valle have won 1 times, with 0 draws and 0 wins for Libertad Asuncion.
Match statistics
17
Total shots
5
8
Shots on target
4
2.44
Actual xG
0.30
3
Saves
4
63%
Possession
37%
8
Corners
4
15
Tackles
18
0
🟨 Yellow cards
1
Match Events
⚽J. Sornoza
38'
⚽C. Gonzalez
· ast. J. Sornoza
43'
45'+3
L. Melgarejo⚽
46'
J. Bernal
/
R. Rojas
56'
⚽J. Lerma
64'
66'
J. Recalde
/
A. Fretes
66'
G. Aguilar
/
F. Carrizo
68'
G. Aguilar
73'
H. Caballero
/
T. Fernandez
J. Lerma
/ R. Briones
74'
79'
R. Villalba
/
M. Fernandez
E. Pata
/ M. Perello
81'
J. Sornoza
/ Y. Ochoa
81'
J. Alcivar
/ J. Mendez
84'
C. Gonzalez
/ D. Reasco
84'
⚽D. Reasco
· ast. M. Perello
90'+5
Pre-match prediction
55.64%
Independiente ←
25.09%
X
19.27%
Libertad
✓ Correct prediction —
we assigned to the actual result (Independiente del Valle)
55.64%
(medium confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
1.46
2.44
+0.98
0.76
0.30
-0.46
Independiente del Valle dominated by xG (2.44 vs 0.30).
The final result reflects the playing dominance.
The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
Lineups
1
Aldair Quintana
G
Aldair Quintana
G
19
Layan Loor
D
Layan Loor
D
23
Juan Viacava
D
Juan Viacava
D
14
Mateo Carabajal
D
Mateo Carabajal
D
13
Daykol Romero
D
Daykol Romero
D
6
Jordy Alcivar
84'
M
Jordy Alcivar
84'
M
31
Emerson Pata
81'
M
Emerson Pata
81'
M
10
Junior Sornoza
1 ⚽
1 👟
81'
M
Junior Sornoza
1 ⚽
1 👟
81'
M
53
Justin Lerma
74'
M
Justin Lerma
74'
M
17
Arón Rodríguez
M
Arón Rodríguez
M
9
C. González
1 ⚽
84'
F
C. González
1 ⚽
84'
F
Bench
33
Andy Velasco
D
Andy Velasco
D
20
Aníbal Gómez
M
Aníbal Gómez
M
55
Darwin Guagua
M
Darwin Guagua
M
99
Djorkaeff Reasco
1 ⚽
11'
F
Djorkaeff Reasco
1 ⚽
11'
F
12
Eduardo Bores
G
Eduardo Bores
G
15
Gustavo Cortez
D
Gustavo Cortez
D
32
Jhegson Méndez
11'
M
Jhegson Méndez
11'
M
4
Jhon Espinoza
D
Jhon Espinoza
D
50
Juan Angulo
F
Juan Angulo
F
11
Matías Perello
1 👟
14'
F
Matías Perello
1 👟
14'
F
16
Ronald Briones
21'
M
Ronald Briones
21'
M
8
Youri Ochoa
14'
M
Youri Ochoa
14'
M
25
Ángel González
G
Ángel González
G
4
N. Giménez
D
N. Giménez
D
5
Diego Viera
D
Diego Viera
D
31
Thiago Fernandez
73'
D
Thiago Fernandez
73'
D
3
R. Rojas
45'
D
R. Rojas
45'
D
14
A. Fretes
66'
M
A. Fretes
66'
M
6
Á. Campuzano
M
Á. Campuzano
M
21
Lucas Sanabria
M
Lucas Sanabria
M
28
Marcelo Fernandez
79'
M
Marcelo Fernandez
79'
M
8
F. Carrizo
66'
F
F. Carrizo
66'
F
10
L. Melgarejo
1 ⚽
F
L. Melgarejo
1 ⚽
F
Bench
27
Amin Molinas
M
Amin Molinas
M
33
Cristhian Martínez
M
Cristhian Martínez
M
40
Fernando Herrera
D
Fernando Herrera
D
11
G. Aguilar
29'
F
G. Aguilar
29'
F
26
Hernesto Caballero
22'
M
Hernesto Caballero
22'
M
22
Hugo Martínez
M
Hugo Martínez
M
13
Joaquin Bogarin
M
Joaquin Bogarin
M
19
Jorge Recalde
29'
M
Jorge Recalde
29'
M
37
Juan Bernal
50'
D
Juan Bernal
50'
D
30
Oscar Acuña
F
Oscar Acuña
F
24
Rodrigo Villalba
16'
D
Rodrigo Villalba
16'
D
29
Victor Rojas
G
Victor Rojas
G
Best on the pitch
Justin Lerma
M · Independiente
8.50
2 shots
· 24 pass
Junior Sornoza
M · Independiente
8.20
1 ⚽ 1 👟
3 shots
· 45 pass
Á. Campuzano
M · Libertad
7.70
· 34 pass
Matías Perello
F · Independiente
7.60
1 👟
· 7 pass
L. Melgarejo
F · Libertad
7.50
1 ⚽
1 shots
· 20 pass
Mateo Carabajal
D · Independiente
7.50
1 shots
· 75 pass
Independiente del Valle — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aldair Quintana | G | 95 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 19 | 19% | — | — | — |
| Layan Loor | D | 95 | 7.00 | — | — | 1 | 50 | 44% | 1 | — | — |
| Juan Viacava | D | 95 | 7.00 | — | — | — | 64 | 54% | — | — | — |
| Mateo Carabajal | D | 95 | 7.50 | — | — | 1 | 75 | 69% | 4 | — | — |
| Daykol Romero | D | 95 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 47 | 38% | 1 | — | — |
| Jordy Alcivar | M | 84 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 46 | 44% | — | — | — |
| Emerson Pata | M | 81 | 7.00 | — | — | 2 | 46 | 40% | 1 | — | — |
| Junior Sornoza | M | 81 | 8.20 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 45 | 42% | — | — | — |
| Justin Lerma | M | 74 | 8.50 | — | — | 2 | 24 | 22% | 1 | — | — |
| Arón Rodríguez | M | 95 | 7.00 | — | — | 1 | 42 | 33% | — | — | — |
| C. González | F | 84 | 7.30 | 1 | — | 5 | 10 | 9% | 1 | — | — |
| Djorkaeff Reasco | F | 11 | 7.20 | 1 | — | 2 | 2 | 1% | 1 | — | — |
| Jhegson Méndez | M | 11 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 10 | 10% | 2 | — | — |
| Matías Perello | F | 14 | 7.60 | — | 1 | — | 7 | 6% | 2 | — | — |
| Ronald Briones | M | 21 | 7.20 | — | — | — | 11 | 11% | 1 | — | — |
| Youri Ochoa | M | 14 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 7 | 7% | — | — | — |
Libertad Asuncion — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ángel González | G | 95 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 38 | 25% | — | — | — |
| N. Giménez | D | 95 | 5.30 | — | — | — | 14 | 10% | 1 | — | — |
| Diego Viera | D | 95 | 5.90 | — | — | — | 41 | 37% | — | — | — |
| Thiago Fernandez | D | 73 | 5.90 | — | — | — | 23 | 16% | 1 | — | — |
| R. Rojas | D | 45 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 9 | 7% | — | — | — |
| A. Fretes | M | 66 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 7 | 6% | 1 | — | — |
| Á. Campuzano | M | 95 | 7.70 | — | — | — | 34 | 31% | 6 | — | — |
| Lucas Sanabria | M | 95 | 6.30 | — | — | 1 | 35 | 27% | 3 | — | — |
| Marcelo Fernandez | M | 79 | 6.20 | — | — | 1 | 15 | 10% | 2 | — | — |
| F. Carrizo | F | 66 | 6.30 | — | — | 1 | 26 | 17% | 1 | — | — |
| L. Melgarejo | F | 95 | 7.50 | 1 | — | 1 | 20 | 14% | — | — | — |
| G. Aguilar | F | 29 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 6 | 5% | — | 1 | — |
| Hernesto Caballero | M | 22 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 13 | 10% | 1 | — | — |
| Jorge Recalde | M | 29 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 12 | 10% | — | — | — |
| Juan Bernal | D | 50 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 11 | 9% | 1 | — | — |
| Rodrigo Villalba | D | 16 | 6.30 | — | — | 1 | 3 | 3% | 1 | — | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Independiente del Valle vs Libertad Asuncion?
The final score was Independiente del Valle 4–1 Libertad Asuncion.
What did the model predict before Independiente del Valle vs Libertad Asuncion?
The model assigned 55% probability to a Independiente del Valle win, 25% to a draw, and 19% to an Libertad Asuncion win.