Copa Libertadores
· Group Stage - 6
May 28, 2026 00:00
Junior Sornoza
64'
(pen.)
The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Independiente del Valle a 50% win probability (draw 26%, Rosario Central 23%). The final result was Independiente del Valle 1–0 Rosario Central. In 1 previous meetings, Independiente del Valle have won 0 times, with 1 draws and 0 wins for Rosario Central.
Match statistics
18
Total shots
5
8
Shots on target
4
1.95
Actual xG
0.55
4
Saves
7
56%
Possession
44%
9
Corners
2
14
Tackles
12
1
🟨 Yellow cards
4
Match Events
13'
Enzo Copetti
Junior Sornoza
45'+5
45'+5
Ángel Di María
46'
Enzo Giménez
/
Julián Fernández
58'
Pol Fernández
/
Ángel Di María
⚽Junior Sornoza
(pen.)
64'
66'
Pol Fernández
79'
Marco Rubén
/
Vicente Pizarro
Emerson Pata
/ Matías Perello
80'
Justin Lerma
/ Ronald Briones
80'
80'
Giovanni Cantizano
/
Jaminton Campaz
Mateo Carabajal
/ Andy Velasco
82'
89'
Lisandro Duarte
/
Emanuel Coronel
90'+3
Ignacio Ovando
Junior Sornoza
/ Youri Ochoa
90'
Arón Rodríguez
/ Steven Gongora
90'
Pre-match prediction
50.52%
Independiente ←
26.35%
X
23.14%
Rosario
we assigned to the actual result (Independiente del Valle)
50.52%
(medium confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
1.44
1.95
+0.51
0.81
0.55
-0.26
Independiente del Valle dominated by xG (1.95 vs 0.55).
The final result reflects the playing dominance.
The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
Lineups
1
Aldair Quintana
G
Aldair Quintana
G
19
Layan Loor
D
Layan Loor
D
23
Juan Viacava
D
Juan Viacava
D
14
Mateo Carabajal
82'
D
Mateo Carabajal
82'
D
13
Daykol Romero
D
Daykol Romero
D
6
Jordy Alcivar
M
Jordy Alcivar
M
31
Emerson Pata
80'
M
Emerson Pata
80'
M
10
Junior Sornoza
1 ⚽
89'
M
Junior Sornoza
1 ⚽
89'
M
53
Justin Lerma
80'
M
Justin Lerma
80'
M
17
Arón Rodríguez
89'
M
Arón Rodríguez
89'
M
9
C. González
F
C. González
F
Bench
33
Andy Velasco
8'
D
Andy Velasco
8'
D
20
Aníbal Gómez
M
Aníbal Gómez
M
99
Djorkaeff Reasco
F
Djorkaeff Reasco
F
12
Eduardo Bores
G
Eduardo Bores
G
15
Gustavo Cortez
D
Gustavo Cortez
D
32
Jhegson Méndez
M
Jhegson Méndez
M
4
Jhon Espinoza
D
Jhon Espinoza
D
50
Juan Angulo
F
Juan Angulo
F
11
Matías Perello
10'
F
Matías Perello
10'
F
16
Ronald Briones
10'
M
Ronald Briones
10'
M
18
Steven Gongora
1'
F
Steven Gongora
1'
F
8
Youri Ochoa
1'
M
Youri Ochoa
1'
M
23
Jeremías Ledesma
G
Jeremías Ledesma
G
33
Alexis Soto
D
Alexis Soto
D
46
Ignacio Ovando
D
Ignacio Ovando
D
15
Facundo Mallo
D
Facundo Mallo
D
32
Emanuel Coronel
89'
D
Emanuel Coronel
89'
D
20
Vicente Pizarro
79'
M
Vicente Pizarro
79'
M
5
Franco Ibarra
M
Franco Ibarra
M
8
Jaminton Campaz
80'
M
Jaminton Campaz
80'
M
11
Ángel Di María
58'
M
Ángel Di María
58'
M
18
Julián Fernández
45'
M
Julián Fernández
45'
M
22
Enzo Copetti
F
Enzo Copetti
F
Bench
14
Asael Oviedo
D
Asael Oviedo
D
16
E. Giménez
45'
M
E. Giménez
45'
M
42
Elías Verón
D
Elías Verón
D
39
Fabricio Oviedo
F
Fabricio Oviedo
F
31
Federico Navarro
M
Federico Navarro
M
26
Giovanni Cantizano
10'
F
Giovanni Cantizano
10'
F
1
Jorge Broun
G
Jorge Broun
G
37
Lisandro Duarte
8'
F
Lisandro Duarte
8'
F
47
Luca Raffin
D
Luca Raffin
D
7
Marcelo Cabrera
F
Marcelo Cabrera
F
29
Marco Rubén
11'
F
Marco Rubén
11'
F
28
Pol Fernández
32'
M
Pol Fernández
32'
M
Best on the pitch
Aldair Quintana
G · Independiente
7.90
· 23 pass
Juan Viacava
D · Independiente
7.70
· 57 pass
Arón Rodríguez
M · Independiente
7.70
1 shots
· 40 pass
Daykol Romero
D · Independiente
7.70
· 31 pass
Junior Sornoza
M · Independiente
7.30
1 ⚽
2 shots
· 37 pass
Jeremías Ledesma
G · Rosario
7.20
· 34 pass
Independiente del Valle — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aldair Quintana | G | 90 | 7.90 | — | — | — | 23 | 19% | — | — | — |
| Layan Loor | D | 90 | 7.20 | — | — | — | 33 | 24% | 2 | — | — |
| Juan Viacava | D | 90 | 7.70 | — | — | — | 57 | 53% | — | — | — |
| Mateo Carabajal | D | 82 | 7.20 | — | — | — | 50 | 46% | — | — | — |
| Daykol Romero | D | 90 | 7.70 | — | — | — | 31 | 22% | — | — | — |
| Jordy Alcivar | M | 90 | 6.90 | — | — | 4 | 45 | 34% | 3 | — | — |
| Emerson Pata | M | 80 | 6.60 | — | — | 4 | 21 | 17% | — | — | — |
| Junior Sornoza | M | 89 | 7.30 | 1 | — | 2 | 37 | 31% | 1 | 1 | — |
| Justin Lerma | M | 80 | 7.00 | — | — | 2 | 28 | 26% | 2 | — | — |
| Arón Rodríguez | M | 89 | 7.70 | — | — | 1 | 40 | 33% | 2 | — | — |
| C. González | F | 90 | 6.50 | — | — | 5 | 9 | 7% | 3 | — | — |
| Andy Velasco | D | 8 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 1 | — | — | — | — |
| Matías Perello | F | 10 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 6 | — | — | — | — |
| Ronald Briones | M | 10 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 1 | 1% | 1 | — | — |
| Steven Gongora | F | 1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Youri Ochoa | M | 1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Rosario Central — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeremías Ledesma | G | 90 | 7.20 | — | — | — | 34 | 13% | — | — | — |
| Alexis Soto | D | 90 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 24 | 18% | 5 | — | — |
| Ignacio Ovando | D | 90 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 23 | 22% | 1 | 1 | — |
| Facundo Mallo | D | 90 | 6.60 | — | — | 1 | 30 | 22% | — | — | — |
| Emanuel Coronel | D | 89 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 32 | 27% | — | — | — |
| Vicente Pizarro | M | 79 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 26 | 24% | — | — | — |
| Franco Ibarra | M | 90 | 6.30 | — | — | 1 | 27 | 21% | 1 | — | — |
| Jaminton Campaz | M | 80 | 6.60 | — | — | 2 | 21 | 19% | 1 | — | — |
| Ángel Di María | M | 58 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 30 | 21% | 1 | 1 | — |
| Julián Fernández | M | 45 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 18 | 14% | — | — | — |
| Enzo Copetti | F | 90 | 6.60 | — | — | 1 | 21 | 14% | 1 | 1 | — |
| E. Giménez | M | 45 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 10 | 7% | — | — | — |
| Giovanni Cantizano | F | 10 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | — | — |
| Lisandro Duarte | F | 8 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 1 | 1% | — | — | — |
| Marco Rubén | F | 11 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 1 | 1% | — | — | — |
| Pol Fernández | M | 32 | 5.90 | — | — | — | 17 | 12% | 1 | 1 | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Independiente del Valle vs Rosario Central?
The final score was Independiente del Valle 1–0 Rosario Central.
What did the model predict before Independiente del Valle vs Rosario Central?
The model assigned 50% probability to a Independiente del Valle win, 26% to a draw, and 23% to an Rosario Central win.