Copa Libertadores
· Group Stage - 2
April 16, 2026 04:00
J. Alcivar
44'
C. Gonzalez
45'+5
C. Gonzalez
(ast. L. Loor)
63'
21'
(ast. J. Cuesta)
J. Bolivar
The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Independiente del Valle a 53% win probability (draw 23%, UCV 23%). The final result was Independiente del Valle 3–1 UCV. In 1 previous meetings, Independiente del Valle have won 0 times, with 0 draws and 1 wins for UCV.
Match statistics
27
Total shots
12
13
Shots on target
3
3.54
Actual xG
1.53
1
Saves
9
67%
Possession
33%
10
Corners
2
15
Tackles
16
0
🟨 Yellow cards
3
1
🟥 Red cards
0
Match Events
21'
ast. J. Cuesta ·
J. Bolivar⚽
37'
J. Cuesta
⚽J. Alcivar
44'
45'+2
A. Simarra
⚽C. Gonzalez
(missed pen.)
45'+5
⚽C. Gonzalez
45'+5
46'
V. Rodriguez
/
S. Sosa
⚽C. Gonzalez
· ast. L. Loor
63'
64'
Y. Murillo
/
J. Zapata
67'
V. Rodriguez
72'
Y. Cumana
/
D. Carrillo
72'
R. Ramirez
/
F. Sole
J. Alcivar
/ J. Mendez
73'
A. Rodriguez
/ E. Pata
73'
R. Briones
/ Y. Ochoa
73'
M. Perello
/ D. Guagua
73'
J. Viacava
77'
J. Lerma
/ A. Velasco
80'
83'
C. Ortiz
/
A. Simarra
Pre-match prediction
53.08%
Independiente ←
23.66%
X
23.27%
UCV
we assigned to the actual result (Independiente del Valle)
53.08%
(medium confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
2.50
3.54
+1.04
1.07
1.53
+0.46
Independiente del Valle dominated by xG (3.54 vs 1.53).
The final result reflects the playing dominance.
The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
Lineups
1
Aldair Quintana
G
Aldair Quintana
G
19
L. Loor
1 👟
D
L. Loor
1 👟
D
23
J. Viacava
77'
D
J. Viacava
77'
D
14
M. Carabajal
D
M. Carabajal
D
13
Daykol Alejandro Romero Padilla
D
Daykol Alejandro Romero Padilla
D
6
Jordy Alcivar
1 ⚽
73'
M
Jordy Alcivar
1 ⚽
73'
M
17
A. Rodríguez
73'
M
A. Rodríguez
73'
M
16
R. Briones
73'
M
R. Briones
73'
M
53
Justin Lerma
80'
M
Justin Lerma
80'
M
11
M. Perelló
73'
M
M. Perelló
73'
M
9
C. González
2 ⚽
F
C. González
2 ⚽
F
Bench
33
Andy René Velasco García
10'
D
Andy René Velasco García
10'
D
55
Darwin Guagua
17'
M
Darwin Guagua
17'
M
99
D. Reasco
F
D. Reasco
F
31
Emerson Ivan Pata Rodríguez
17'
F
Emerson Ivan Pata Rodríguez
17'
F
4
J. Espinoza
D
J. Espinoza
D
32
J. Méndez
17'
M
J. Méndez
17'
M
50
Juan Riquelme Angulo
F
Juan Riquelme Angulo
F
8
Y. Ochoa
17'
M
Y. Ochoa
17'
M
13
G. Schiavone
G
27
Daniel Carrillo
72'
D
Daniel Carrillo
72'
D
19
A. Simarra
83'
D
A. Simarra
83'
D
5
D
2
K. Silva
D
6
F. Solé
72'
M
30
A. González
M
7
J. Cuesta
1 👟
M
J. Cuesta
1 👟
M
8
J. Zapata
64'
M
10
S. Sosa
45'
M
11
Jovanny Bolívar
1 ⚽
F
Jovanny Bolívar
1 ⚽
F
Bench
57
C. Cermeño
M
21
C. Ortiz
13'
F
16
D. De Sousa
F
14
Kendry Mendoza
M
Kendry Mendoza
M
28
M. Ruiz
D
3
Ruben Ramirez
18'
D
Ruben Ramirez
18'
D
17
V. Rodríguez
45'
M
4
W. Velásquez
D
24
Y. Cumaná
18'
D
9
Yeiber Murillo
26'
F
Yeiber Murillo
26'
F
Best on the pitch
Jovanny Bolívar
F · UCV
8.20
1 ⚽
3 shots
· 20 pass
M. Carabajal
D · Independiente
8.20
1 shots
· 93 pass
G. Schiavone
G · UCV
8.00
· 29 pass
M. Perelló
M · Independiente
7.70
1 shots
· 24 pass
L. Loor
D · Independiente
7.60
1 👟
1 shots
· 58 pass
R. Briones
M · Independiente
7.60
3 shots
· 11 pass
Independiente del Valle — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aldair Quintana | G | 90 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 23 | 18% | — | — | — |
| L. Loor | D | 90 | 7.60 | — | 1 | 1 | 58 | 55% | 2 | — | — |
| J. Viacava | D | 77 | 6.90 | — | — | 2 | 81 | 75% | 1 | — | 1 |
| M. Carabajal | D | 90 | 8.20 | — | — | 1 | 93 | 90% | 1 | — | — |
| Daykol Alejandro Romero Padilla | D | 90 | 6.70 | — | — | 1 | 45 | 41% | 2 | — | — |
| Jordy Alcivar | M | 73 | 7.00 | 1 | — | 3 | 38 | 36% | 1 | — | — |
| A. Rodríguez | M | 73 | 6.90 | — | — | 4 | 27 | 22% | 2 | — | — |
| R. Briones | M | 73 | 7.60 | — | — | 3 | 11 | 9% | 2 | — | — |
| Justin Lerma | M | 80 | 6.30 | — | — | 2 | 23 | 23% | 2 | — | — |
| M. Perelló | M | 73 | 7.70 | — | — | 1 | 24 | 17% | — | — | — |
| C. González | F | 90 | 6.60 | 2 | — | 8 | 7 | 4% | 1 | — | — |
| Andy René Velasco García | D | 10 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 9 | 9% | — | — | — |
| Darwin Guagua | M | 17 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 6 | 4% | 1 | — | — |
| Emerson Ivan Pata Rodríguez | F | 17 | 6.70 | — | — | 1 | 9 | 9% | — | — | — |
| J. Méndez | M | 17 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 13 | 13% | — | — | — |
| Y. Ochoa | M | 17 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 5 | 5% | — | — | — |
UCV — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G. Schiavone | G | 90 | 8.00 | — | — | — | 29 | 18% | — | — | — |
| Daniel Carrillo | D | 72 | 6.20 | — | — | 1 | 13 | 11% | — | — | — |
| A. Simarra | D | 83 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 13 | 9% | — | 1 | — |
| D | 90 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 19 | 13% | 1 | — | — | |
| K. Silva | D | 90 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 18 | 14% | 2 | — | — |
| F. Solé | M | 72 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 20 | 16% | 2 | — | — |
| A. González | M | 90 | 6.90 | — | — | 1 | 28 | 24% | 2 | — | — |
| J. Cuesta | M | 90 | 6.20 | — | 1 | 1 | 15 | 9% | — | 1 | — |
| J. Zapata | M | 64 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 7 | 2% | 2 | — | — |
| S. Sosa | M | 45 | 6.30 | — | — | 1 | 2 | 2% | 2 | — | — |
| Jovanny Bolívar | F | 90 | 8.20 | 1 | — | 3 | 20 | 11% | 3 | — | — |
| C. Ortiz | F | 13 | 6.30 | — | — | 3 | 1 | — | — | — | — |
| Ruben Ramirez | D | 18 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 5 | 5% | — | — | — |
| V. Rodríguez | M | 45 | 6.90 | — | — | 1 | 25 | 24% | 2 | 1 | — |
| Y. Cumaná | D | 18 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 8 | 7% | — | — | — |
| Yeiber Murillo | F | 26 | 6.90 | — | — | 1 | 11 | 9% | — | — | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Independiente del Valle vs UCV?
The final score was Independiente del Valle 3–1 UCV.
What did the model predict before Independiente del Valle vs UCV?
The model assigned 53% probability to a Independiente del Valle win, 23% to a draw, and 23% to an UCV win.