Copa Libertadores
· Group Stage - 2
April 16, 2026 04:00
J. Alcivar
44'
C. Gonzalez
45'+5
C. Gonzalez
(ast. L. Loor)
63'
21'
(ast. J. Cuesta)
J. Bolivar
The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Independiente del Valle a 53% win probability (draw 23%, UCV 23%). The final result was Independiente del Valle 3–1 UCV. In 1 previous meetings, Independiente del Valle have won 0 times, with 0 draws and 1 wins for UCV.
Match statistics
27
Total shots
12
13
Shots on target
3
3.54
Actual xG
1.53
1
Saves
9
67%
Possession
33%
10
Corners
2
15
Tackles
16
0
🟨 Yellow cards
3
1
🟥 Red cards
0
Match Events
21'
ast. J. Cuesta ·
J. Bolivar⚽
37'
J. Cuesta
⚽J. Alcivar
44'
45'+2
A. Simarra
⚽C. Gonzalez
(missed pen.)
45'+5
⚽C. Gonzalez
45'+5
46'
V. Rodriguez
/
S. Sosa
⚽C. Gonzalez
· ast. L. Loor
63'
64'
Y. Murillo
/
J. Zapata
67'
V. Rodriguez
72'
Y. Cumana
/
D. Carrillo
72'
R. Ramirez
/
F. Sole
J. Alcivar
/ J. Mendez
73'
A. Rodriguez
/ E. Pata
73'
R. Briones
/ Y. Ochoa
73'
M. Perello
/ D. Guagua
73'
J. Viacava
77'
J. Lerma
/ A. Velasco
80'
83'
C. Ortiz
/
A. Simarra
Pre-match prediction
53.08%
Independiente ←
23.66%
X
23.27%
UCV
we assigned to the actual result (Independiente del Valle)
53.08%
(medium confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
2.50
3.54
+1.04
1.07
1.53
+0.46
Independiente del Valle dominated by xG (3.54 vs 1.53).
The final result reflects the playing dominance.
The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
Lineups
1
Aldair Quintana
G
Aldair Quintana
G
19
L. Loor
1 👟
D
L. Loor
1 👟
D
23
Juan Viacava
77'
D
Juan Viacava
77'
D
14
Mateo Carabajal
D
Mateo Carabajal
D
13
Daykol Romero
D
Daykol Romero
D
6
Jordy Alcivar
1 ⚽
73'
M
Jordy Alcivar
1 ⚽
73'
M
17
Arón Rodríguez
73'
M
Arón Rodríguez
73'
M
16
Ronald Briones
73'
M
Ronald Briones
73'
M
53
Justin Lerma
80'
M
Justin Lerma
80'
M
11
Matías Perello
73'
M
Matías Perello
73'
M
9
Carlos González
2 ⚽
F
Carlos González
2 ⚽
F
Bench
33
Andy Velasco
10'
D
Andy Velasco
10'
D
55
Darwin Guagua
17'
M
Darwin Guagua
17'
M
99
Djorkaeff Reasco
F
Djorkaeff Reasco
F
31
Emerson Pata
17'
F
Emerson Pata
17'
F
32
Jhegson Méndez
17'
M
Jhegson Méndez
17'
M
4
Jhon Espinoza
D
Jhon Espinoza
D
50
Juan Riquelme Angulo
F
Juan Riquelme Angulo
F
8
Youri Ochoa
17'
M
Youri Ochoa
17'
M
13
Giancarlo Schiavone
G
Giancarlo Schiavone
G
27
Daniel Carrillo
72'
D
Daniel Carrillo
72'
D
19
Alfonso Simarra
83'
D
Alfonso Simarra
83'
D
5
D
2
K. Silva
D
K. Silva
D
6
Francisco Solé
72'
M
Francisco Solé
72'
M
30
Alexander Gonzalez
M
Alexander Gonzalez
M
7
Juan Manuel Cuesta
1 👟
M
Juan Manuel Cuesta
1 👟
M
8
Juan Camilo Zapata
64'
M
Juan Camilo Zapata
64'
M
10
Samuel Sosa
45'
M
Samuel Sosa
45'
M
11
J. Bolívar
1 ⚽
F
J. Bolívar
1 ⚽
F
Bench
57
Carlos Cermeño
M
Carlos Cermeño
M
21
Charlis Ortíz
13'
F
Charlis Ortíz
13'
F
16
Daniel De Sousa
F
Daniel De Sousa
F
14
Kendry Mendoza
M
Kendry Mendoza
M
28
Maicol Ruiz
D
Maicol Ruiz
D
3
Ruben Ramirez
18'
D
Ruben Ramirez
18'
D
17
Vicente Rodríguez
45'
M
Vicente Rodríguez
45'
M
4
Williams Velásquez
D
Williams Velásquez
D
9
Yeiber Murillo
26'
F
Yeiber Murillo
26'
F
24
Yohan Cumana
18'
D
Yohan Cumana
18'
D
Best on the pitch
J. Bolívar
F · UCV
8.20
1 ⚽
3 shots
· 20 pass
Mateo Carabajal
D · Independiente
8.20
1 shots
· 93 pass
Giancarlo Schiavone
G · UCV
8.00
· 29 pass
Matías Perello
M · Independiente
7.70
1 shots
· 24 pass
L. Loor
D · Independiente
7.60
1 👟
1 shots
· 58 pass
Ronald Briones
M · Independiente
7.60
3 shots
· 11 pass
Independiente del Valle — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aldair Quintana | G | 90 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 23 | 18% | — | — | — |
| L. Loor | D | 90 | 7.60 | — | 1 | 1 | 58 | 55% | 2 | — | — |
| Juan Viacava | D | 77 | 6.90 | — | — | 2 | 81 | 75% | 1 | — | 1 |
| Mateo Carabajal | D | 90 | 8.20 | — | — | 1 | 93 | 90% | 1 | — | — |
| Daykol Romero | D | 90 | 6.70 | — | — | 1 | 45 | 41% | 2 | — | — |
| Jordy Alcivar | M | 73 | 7.00 | 1 | — | 3 | 38 | 36% | 1 | — | — |
| Arón Rodríguez | M | 73 | 6.90 | — | — | 4 | 27 | 22% | 2 | — | — |
| Ronald Briones | M | 73 | 7.60 | — | — | 3 | 11 | 9% | 2 | — | — |
| Justin Lerma | M | 80 | 6.30 | — | — | 2 | 23 | 23% | 2 | — | — |
| Matías Perello | M | 73 | 7.70 | — | — | 1 | 24 | 17% | — | — | — |
| Carlos González | F | 90 | 6.60 | 2 | — | 8 | 7 | 4% | 1 | — | — |
| Andy Velasco | D | 10 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 9 | 9% | — | — | — |
| Darwin Guagua | M | 17 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 6 | 4% | 1 | — | — |
| Emerson Pata | F | 17 | 6.70 | — | — | 1 | 9 | 9% | — | — | — |
| Jhegson Méndez | M | 17 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 13 | 13% | — | — | — |
| Youri Ochoa | M | 17 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 5 | 5% | — | — | — |
UCV — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Giancarlo Schiavone | G | 90 | 8.00 | — | — | — | 29 | 18% | — | — | — |
| Daniel Carrillo | D | 72 | 6.20 | — | — | 1 | 13 | 11% | — | — | — |
| Alfonso Simarra | D | 83 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 13 | 9% | — | 1 | — |
| D | 90 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 19 | 13% | 1 | — | — | |
| K. Silva | D | 90 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 18 | 14% | 2 | — | — |
| Francisco Solé | M | 72 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 20 | 16% | 2 | — | — |
| Alexander Gonzalez | M | 90 | 6.90 | — | — | 1 | 28 | 24% | 2 | — | — |
| Juan Manuel Cuesta | M | 90 | 6.20 | — | 1 | 1 | 15 | 9% | — | 1 | — |
| Juan Camilo Zapata | M | 64 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 7 | 2% | 2 | — | — |
| Samuel Sosa | M | 45 | 6.30 | — | — | 1 | 2 | 2% | 2 | — | — |
| J. Bolívar | F | 90 | 8.20 | 1 | — | 3 | 20 | 11% | 3 | — | — |
| Charlis Ortíz | F | 13 | 6.30 | — | — | 3 | 1 | — | — | — | — |
| Ruben Ramirez | D | 18 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 5 | 5% | — | — | — |
| Vicente Rodríguez | M | 45 | 6.90 | — | — | 1 | 25 | 24% | 2 | 1 | — |
| Yeiber Murillo | F | 26 | 6.90 | — | — | 1 | 11 | 9% | — | — | — |
| Yohan Cumana | D | 18 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 8 | 7% | — | — | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Independiente del Valle vs UCV?
The final score was Independiente del Valle 3–1 UCV.
What did the model predict before Independiente del Valle vs UCV?
The model assigned 53% probability to a Independiente del Valle win, 23% to a draw, and 23% to an UCV win.