✗Model wrong — prediction Independiente del Valle, result Draw
The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Independiente del Valle a 55% win probability (draw 22%, Universidad Catolica 21%). The final result was Independiente del Valle 0–0 Universidad Catolica. In 2 previous meetings, Independiente del Valle have won 1 times, with 1 draws and 0 wins for Universidad Catolica.
Match statistics
10
Total shots
10
4
Shots on target
1
0.82
Actual xG
0.37
1
Saves
4
46%
Possession
54%
8
Corners
3
15
Tackles
13
1
🟨 Yellow cards
4
Match Events
26'
Mauricio Sebastian·Alonso Pereda
47'
Daniel Clavijo
Youri Ochoa
51'
62'
José Fajardo
Youri Ochoa
/ Hugo Quintana
63'
Djorkaeff Reascos
/ Carlos González
64'
72'
Jerónimo Cacciabue
Steven Daniel Góngora Palacios
/ Emerson Ivan Pata Rodríguez
76'
Ronald Briones
/ Junior Sornoza
76'
78'
82'
Jimmy Evans
/
Mauricio Sebastian·Alonso Pereda
82'
Facundo Martinez
/
Jerónimo Cacciabue
Matias Mijail Perello
/ Edwin Quintero
87'
90'+3
Andrés Rodríguez
/
Mauro Díaz
90'+3
Luis Johan Moreno
/
Daniel Clavijo
Pre-match prediction
55.87%
Independiente
22.45%
X ←
21.67%
Universidad
✗ Wrong prediction —
we assigned to the actual result (Draw)
22.45%
(low confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
1.77
0.82
-0.95
1.00
0.37
-0.63
Independiente del Valle dominated by xG (0.82 vs 0.37).
The final result does not reflect the playing dominance.
The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
Lineups
1
A. Quintana
G
A. Quintana
G
8
Y. Ochoa
63'
D
Y. Ochoa
63'
D
15
G. Cortéz
D
G. Cortéz
D
14
M. Carabajal
D
M. Carabajal
D
4
J. Espinoza
D
J. Espinoza
D
16
R. Briones
76'
M
R. Briones
76'
M
99
D. Reasco
64'
M
D. Reasco
64'
M
32
J. Méndez
M
J. Méndez
M
18
M
11
M. Perelló
87'
M
M. Perelló
87'
M
23
F
Bench
33
Andy René Velasco García
D
Andy René Velasco García
D
9
C. González
26'
F
C. González
26'
F
13
Daykol Alejandro Romero Padilla
D
Daykol Alejandro Romero Padilla
D
31
Emerson Ivan Pata Rodríguez
14'
F
Emerson Ivan Pata Rodríguez
14'
F
56
E. Quintero
3'
M
E. Quintero
3'
M
28
H. Quintana
27'
M
H. Quintana
27'
M
6
J. Alcívar
M
J. Alcívar
M
10
J. Sornoza
14'
M
J. Sornoza
14'
M
19
L. Loor
D
L. Loor
D
70
M. Peralta
G
M. Peralta
G
5
R. Schunke
D
R. Schunke
D
52
Y. Vásquez
F
Y. Vásquez
F
12
J. Lara
G
J. Lara
G
30
E. Mejía
D
E. Mejía
D
3
D
33
L. Cangá
D
L. Cangá
D
29
G. Anangonó
D
G. Anangonó
D
32
M. Alonso
82'
M
M. Alonso
82'
M
5
J. Cacciabue
82'
M
J. Cacciabue
82'
M
8
D. Clavijo
89'
M
D. Clavijo
89'
M
9
A. Londoño
M
A. Londoño
M
28
M. Díaz
89'
F
M. Díaz
89'
F
7
J. Fajardo
F
J. Fajardo
F
Bench
23
Alex Andrés Rodríguez Reascos
1'
M
Alex Andrés Rodríguez Reascos
1'
M
18
B. Palacios
F
B. Palacios
F
37
C. Medina
D
C. Medina
D
24
Darwin Carlos Nazareno Arroyo
D
Darwin Carlos Nazareno Arroyo
D
10
F. Martínez
8'
M
F. Martínez
8'
M
26
Foad Eid
F
Foad Eid
F
11
J. Evans
8'
F
J. Evans
8'
F
14
J. Mina
D
J. Mina
D
15
L. Moreno
1'
D
L. Moreno
1'
D
1
Lucas Cueva Gordillo
G
Lucas Cueva Gordillo
G
19
M. Sevillano
M
M. Sevillano
M
17
R. Troya
M
R. Troya
M
Best on the pitch
J. Lara
G · Universidad
7.99
· 37 pass
G. Anangonó
D · Universidad
7.55
3 shots
· 40 pass
M. Carabajal
D · Independiente
7.28
1 shots
· 42 pass
G. Cortéz
D · Independiente
7.21
· 28 pass
J. Espinoza
D · Independiente
7.14
· 37 pass
J. Méndez
M · Independiente
7.06
1 shots
· 45 pass
Independiente del Valle — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Quintana | G | 90 | 6.73 | — | — | 0 | 22 | 20% | 0 | — | — |
| Y. Ochoa | D | 63 | 6.27 | — | — | 1 | 14 | 12% | 2 | 1 | — |
| G. Cortéz | D | 90 | 7.21 | — | — | 0 | 28 | 28% | 0 | — | — |
| M. Carabajal | D | 90 | 7.28 | — | — | 1 | 42 | 39% | 0 | — | — |
| J. Espinoza | D | 90 | 7.14 | — | — | 0 | 37 | 32% | 1 | — | — |
| R. Briones | M | 76 | 7.00 | — | — | 2 | 17 | 13% | 3 | — | — |
| D. Reasco | M | 64 | 6.26 | — | — | 0 | 3 | 2% | 0 | — | — |
| J. Méndez | M | 90 | 7.06 | — | — | 1 | 45 | 42% | 4 | — | — |
| M | 90 | 6.80 | — | — | 0 | 53 | 42% | 1 | — | — | |
| M. Perelló | M | 87 | 6.18 | — | — | 3 | 16 | 9% | 1 | — | — |
| F | 90 | 6.80 | — | — | 0 | 53 | 42% | 1 | — | — | |
| C. González | F | 26 | 6.63 | — | — | 1 | 5 | 3% | 0 | — | — |
| Emerson Ivan Pata Rodríguez | F | 14 | 6.48 | — | — | 0 | 7 | 5% | 0 | — | — |
| E. Quintero | M | 3 | 6.94 | — | — | 0 | 1 | 1% | 2 | — | — |
| H. Quintana | M | 27 | 6.48 | — | — | 1 | 9 | 7% | 0 | — | — |
| J. Sornoza | M | 14 | 6.56 | — | — | 0 | 6 | 6% | 0 | — | — |
Universidad Catolica — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Lara | G | 90 | 7.99 | — | — | 0 | 37 | 33% | 0 | — | — |
| E. Mejía | D | 90 | 6.97 | — | — | 0 | 36 | 31% | 2 | — | — |
| D | 90 | 6.80 | — | — | 0 | 53 | 42% | 1 | — | — | |
| L. Cangá | D | 90 | 6.99 | — | — | 0 | 71 | 61% | 1 | — | — |
| G. Anangonó | D | 90 | 7.55 | — | — | 3 | 40 | 35% | 0 | — | — |
| M. Alonso | M | 82 | 6.28 | — | — | 4 | 16 | 14% | 1 | 1 | — |
| J. Cacciabue | M | 82 | 6.68 | — | — | 0 | 44 | 38% | 2 | 1 | — |
| D. Clavijo | M | 89 | 6.30 | — | — | 0 | 28 | 24% | 2 | 1 | — |
| A. Londoño | M | 90 | 6.53 | — | — | 0 | 20 | 17% | 3 | — | — |
| M. Díaz | F | 89 | 6.61 | — | — | 0 | 50 | 45% | 0 | — | — |
| J. Fajardo | F | 90 | 6.08 | — | — | 3 | 15 | 11% | 0 | 1 | — |
| Alex Andrés Rodríguez Reascos | M | 1 | 0.00 | — | — | 0 | 1 | 0% | 0 | — | — |
| F. Martínez | M | 8 | 6.53 | — | — | 0 | 4 | 3% | 0 | — | — |
| J. Evans | F | 8 | 6.67 | — | — | 0 | 3 | 2% | 1 | — | — |
| L. Moreno | D | 1 | 0.00 | — | — | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0 | — | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Independiente del Valle vs Universidad Catolica?
The final score was Independiente del Valle 0–0 Universidad Catolica.
What did the model predict before Independiente del Valle vs Universidad Catolica?
The model assigned 55% probability to a Independiente del Valle win, 22% to a draw, and 21% to an Universidad Catolica win.