D. Catano
3'
D. Londono
(ast. A. Serna)
26'
7'
A. Sarmiento
10'
J. Rengifo
(og)
90'+3
J. Ortiz
The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Atletico Nacional a 38% win probability (draw 27%, Independiente Medellin 34%). The final result was Independiente Medellin 2–3 Atletico Nacional.
Match statistics
10
Total shots
10
7
Shots on target
6
0.42
Actual xG
1.73
6
Saves
5
41%
Possession
59%
3
Corners
4
8
Tackles
9
1
🟨 Yellow cards
2
Match Events
⚽D. Catano
3'
7'
A. Sarmiento⚽
10'
J. Rengifo⚽
⚽D. Londono
· ast. A. Serna
26'
D. Catano
/ Yony Gonzalez
57'
H. Palacios
/ H. Loboa
64'
66'
C. Arango
/
M. Uribe
67'
E. Cardona
/
A. Sarmiento
78'
E. Cardona
A. Serna
/ D. Moreno
79'
F. Fydriszewski
/ A. Davila
79'
F. Chaverra
/ J. Montano
79'
79'
M. Moreno
/
E. Bello
82'
W. Tesillo
H. Loboa
86'
88'
J. Rosa
/
A. Morelos
90'+3
(og)
J. Ortiz⚽
Pre-match prediction
34.26%
Independiente
27.23%
X
38.51%
Atletico ←
we assigned to the actual result (Atletico Nacional)
38.51%
(low confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
1.53
0.42
-1.11
1.72
1.73
+0.01
Atletico Nacional dominated by xG (1.73 vs 0.42).
The final result reflects the playing dominance.
The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
Lineups
25
E. Chaux
G
E. Chaux
G
18
F. Fabra
D
F. Fabra
D
33
D. Londoño
1 ⚽
D
D. Londoño
1 ⚽
D
24
J. Ortiz
1 ⚽
D
J. Ortiz
1 ⚽
D
30
H. Palacios
64'
D
H. Palacios
64'
D
10
D. Cataño
1 ⚽
57'
M
D. Cataño
1 ⚽
57'
M
8
Alexis Serna
1 👟
79'
M
Alexis Serna
1 👟
79'
M
14
B. Perlaza
M
B. Perlaza
M
26
E. Mena
M
E. Mena
M
19
F. Fydriszewski
79'
F
F. Fydriszewski
79'
F
13
F. Chaverra
79'
F
F. Chaverra
79'
F
Bench
31
D. Moreno
17'
M
D. Moreno
17'
M
16
H. Loboa
32'
M
H. Loboa
32'
M
20
J. Montaño
17'
F
J. Montaño
17'
F
5
L. Escorcia
D
L. Escorcia
D
11
Y. González
39'
F
Y. González
39'
F
1
G
20
D
28
S. Garcia
D
S. Garcia
D
16
W. Tesillo
D
W. Tesillo
D
6
A. Román
D
A. Román
D
8
M. Uribe
66'
M
M. Uribe
66'
M
21
J. Campuzano
M
J. Campuzano
M
29
A. Sarmiento
1 ⚽
67'
M
A. Sarmiento
1 ⚽
67'
M
18
E. Bello
79'
M
E. Bello
79'
M
19
Juan Manuel Rengifo
1 ⚽
M
Juan Manuel Rengifo
1 ⚽
M
9
A. Morelos
88'
F
A. Morelos
88'
F
Bench
17
C. Arango
30'
F
C. Arango
30'
F
27
D. Asprilla
F
D. Asprilla
F
10
E. Cardona
29'
M
E. Cardona
29'
M
7
M. Moreno
17'
F
M. Moreno
17'
F
33
Samuel Velásquez
M
Samuel Velásquez
M
Best on the pitch
D. Londoño
D · Independiente
7.70
1 ⚽
1 shots
· 31 pass
E. Chaux
G · Independiente
7.30
· 18 pass
D. Cataño
M · Independiente
7.30
1 ⚽
3 shots
· 22 pass
Juan Manuel Rengifo
M · Atletico
7.20
1 ⚽
1 shots
· 31 pass
J. Campuzano
M · Atletico
7.20
· 47 pass
F. Fydriszewski
F · Independiente
7.20
1 shots
· 10 pass
Independiente Medellin — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| E. Chaux | G | 96 | 7.30 | — | — | — | 18 | 17% | — | — | — |
| F. Fabra | D | 96 | 6.00 | — | — | — | 29 | 24% | — | — | — |
| D. Londoño | D | 96 | 7.70 | 1 | — | 1 | 31 | 27% | — | — | — |
| J. Ortiz | D | 96 | 5.90 | 1 | — | — | 38 | 35% | — | — | — |
| H. Palacios | D | 64 | 6.20 | — | — | 2 | 24 | 21% | 2 | — | — |
| D. Cataño | M | 57 | 7.30 | 1 | — | 3 | 22 | 20% | — | — | — |
| Alexis Serna | M | 79 | 6.60 | — | 1 | — | 27 | 27% | 1 | — | — |
| B. Perlaza | M | 96 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 21 | 16% | 1 | — | — |
| E. Mena | M | 96 | 6.70 | — | — | 2 | 18 | 15% | 1 | — | — |
| F. Fydriszewski | F | 79 | 7.20 | — | — | 1 | 10 | 9% | 1 | — | — |
| F. Chaverra | F | 79 | 6.90 | — | — | 1 | 18 | 15% | 2 | — | — |
| D. Moreno | M | 17 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 3 | 3% | — | — | — |
| H. Loboa | M | 32 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 10 | 8% | — | 1 | — |
| J. Montaño | F | 17 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 7 | 4% | — | — | — |
| Y. González | F | 39 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 6 | 3% | — | — | — |
Atletico Nacional — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | 96 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 34 | 28% | — | — | — | |
| D | 96 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 36 | 33% | 1 | — | — | |
| S. Garcia | D | 96 | 6.70 | — | — | 1 | 70 | 63% | — | — | — |
| W. Tesillo | D | 96 | 7.00 | — | — | — | 76 | 72% | 1 | 1 | — |
| A. Román | D | 96 | 5.70 | — | — | — | 25 | 23% | — | — | — |
| M. Uribe | M | 66 | 6.30 | — | — | 1 | 28 | 27% | — | — | — |
| J. Campuzano | M | 96 | 7.20 | — | — | — | 47 | 45% | 3 | — | — |
| A. Sarmiento | M | 67 | 6.90 | 1 | — | 1 | 10 | 8% | 2 | — | — |
| E. Bello | M | 79 | 6.00 | — | — | 2 | 19 | 14% | — | — | — |
| Juan Manuel Rengifo | M | 96 | 7.20 | 1 | — | 1 | 31 | 27% | 2 | — | — |
| A. Morelos | F | 88 | 6.30 | — | — | 3 | 21 | 15% | — | — | — |
| C. Arango | F | 30 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 7 | 5% | — | — | — |
| E. Cardona | M | 29 | 6.60 | — | — | 1 | 14 | 14% | — | 1 | — |
| M. Moreno | F | 17 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 5 | 5% | — | — | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Independiente Medellin vs Atletico Nacional?
The final score was Independiente Medellin 2–3 Atletico Nacional.
What did the model predict before Independiente Medellin vs Atletico Nacional?
The model assigned 34% probability to a Independiente Medellin win, 27% to a draw, and 38% to an Atletico Nacional win.