Liga BetPlay
· Apertura - 16
April 12, 2026 03:20
D. Catano
3'
D. Londono
(ast. A. Serna)
26'
7'
A. Sarmiento
10'
J. Rengifo
(og)
90'+3
J. Ortiz
The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Atletico Nacional a 38% win probability (draw 27%, Independiente Medellin 34%). The final result was Independiente Medellin 2–3 Atletico Nacional.
Match statistics
10
Total shots
10
7
Shots on target
6
0.42
Actual xG
1.73
6
Saves
5
41%
Possession
59%
3
Corners
4
8
Tackles
9
1
🟨 Yellow cards
2
Match Events
⚽D. Catano
3'
7'
A. Sarmiento⚽
10'
J. Rengifo⚽
⚽D. Londono
· ast. A. Serna
26'
D. Catano
/ Yony Gonzalez
57'
H. Palacios
/ H. Loboa
64'
66'
C. Arango
/
M. Uribe
67'
E. Cardona
/
A. Sarmiento
78'
E. Cardona
A. Serna
/ D. Moreno
79'
F. Fydriszewski
/ A. Davila
79'
F. Chaverra
/ J. Montano
79'
79'
M. Moreno
/
E. Bello
82'
W. Tesillo
H. Loboa
86'
88'
J. Rosa
/
A. Morelos
90'+3
(og)
J. Ortiz⚽
Pre-match prediction
34.26%
Independiente
27.23%
X
38.51%
Atletico ←
we assigned to the actual result (Atletico Nacional)
38.51%
(low confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
1.53
0.42
-1.11
1.72
1.73
+0.01
Atletico Nacional dominated by xG (1.73 vs 0.42).
The final result reflects the playing dominance.
The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
Lineups
25
Eder Chaux
G
Eder Chaux
G
18
F. Fabra
D
F. Fabra
D
33
Daniel Londoño
1 ⚽
D
Daniel Londoño
1 ⚽
D
24
José Ortiz
1 ⚽
D
José Ortiz
1 ⚽
D
30
Hayen Palacios
64'
D
Hayen Palacios
64'
D
10
Daniel Cataño
1 ⚽
57'
M
Daniel Cataño
1 ⚽
57'
M
8
Alexis Serna
1 👟
79'
M
Alexis Serna
1 👟
79'
M
14
Baldomero Perlaza
M
Baldomero Perlaza
M
26
Esneyder Mena
M
Esneyder Mena
M
19
F. Fydriszewski
79'
F
F. Fydriszewski
79'
F
13
F. Chaverra
79'
F
F. Chaverra
79'
F
Bench
31
D. Moreno
17'
M
16
Halam Loboa
32'
M
Halam Loboa
32'
M
20
John Edwin Montaño
17'
F
John Edwin Montaño
17'
F
5
Luis Escorcia
D
Luis Escorcia
D
11
Y. González
39'
F
Y. González
39'
F
1
G
20
D
28
Simon Garcia
D
Simon Garcia
D
16
William Tesillo
D
William Tesillo
D
6
A. Román
D
A. Román
D
8
Matheus Uribe
66'
M
Matheus Uribe
66'
M
21
J. Campuzano
M
J. Campuzano
M
29
A. Sarmiento
1 ⚽
67'
M
A. Sarmiento
1 ⚽
67'
M
18
E. Bello
79'
M
E. Bello
79'
M
19
J. Rengifo
1 ⚽
M
J. Rengifo
1 ⚽
M
9
A. Morelos
88'
F
A. Morelos
88'
F
Bench
17
Cristian Arango
30'
F
Cristian Arango
30'
F
27
Dairon Asprilla
F
Dairon Asprilla
F
10
E. Cardona
29'
M
E. Cardona
29'
M
7
Marlos Moreno
17'
F
Marlos Moreno
17'
F
33
Samuel Velásquez
M
Samuel Velásquez
M
Best on the pitch
Daniel Londoño
D · Independiente
7.70
1 ⚽
1 shots
· 31 pass
Eder Chaux
G · Independiente
7.30
· 18 pass
Daniel Cataño
M · Independiente
7.30
1 ⚽
3 shots
· 22 pass
J. Rengifo
M · Atletico
7.20
1 ⚽
1 shots
· 31 pass
J. Campuzano
M · Atletico
7.20
· 47 pass
F. Fydriszewski
F · Independiente
7.20
1 shots
· 10 pass
Independiente Medellin — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eder Chaux | G | 96 | 7.30 | — | — | — | 18 | 17% | — | — | — |
| F. Fabra | D | 96 | 6.00 | — | — | — | 29 | 24% | — | — | — |
| Daniel Londoño | D | 96 | 7.70 | 1 | — | 1 | 31 | 27% | — | — | — |
| José Ortiz | D | 96 | 5.90 | 1 | — | — | 38 | 35% | — | — | — |
| Hayen Palacios | D | 64 | 6.20 | — | — | 2 | 24 | 21% | 2 | — | — |
| Daniel Cataño | M | 57 | 7.30 | 1 | — | 3 | 22 | 20% | — | — | — |
| Alexis Serna | M | 79 | 6.60 | — | 1 | — | 27 | 27% | 1 | — | — |
| Baldomero Perlaza | M | 96 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 21 | 16% | 1 | — | — |
| Esneyder Mena | M | 96 | 6.70 | — | — | 2 | 18 | 15% | 1 | — | — |
| F. Fydriszewski | F | 79 | 7.20 | — | — | 1 | 10 | 9% | 1 | — | — |
| F. Chaverra | F | 79 | 6.90 | — | — | 1 | 18 | 15% | 2 | — | — |
| D. Moreno | M | 17 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 3 | 3% | — | — | — |
| Halam Loboa | M | 32 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 10 | 8% | — | 1 | — |
| John Edwin Montaño | F | 17 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 7 | 4% | — | — | — |
| Y. González | F | 39 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 6 | 3% | — | — | — |
Atletico Nacional — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | 96 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 34 | 28% | — | — | — | |
| D | 96 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 36 | 33% | 1 | — | — | |
| Simon Garcia | D | 96 | 6.70 | — | — | 1 | 70 | 63% | — | — | — |
| William Tesillo | D | 96 | 7.00 | — | — | — | 76 | 72% | 1 | 1 | — |
| A. Román | D | 96 | 5.70 | — | — | — | 25 | 23% | — | — | — |
| Matheus Uribe | M | 66 | 6.30 | — | — | 1 | 28 | 27% | — | — | — |
| J. Campuzano | M | 96 | 7.20 | — | — | — | 47 | 45% | 3 | — | — |
| A. Sarmiento | M | 67 | 6.90 | 1 | — | 1 | 10 | 8% | 2 | — | — |
| E. Bello | M | 79 | 6.00 | — | — | 2 | 19 | 14% | — | — | — |
| J. Rengifo | M | 96 | 7.20 | 1 | — | 1 | 31 | 27% | 2 | — | — |
| A. Morelos | F | 88 | 6.30 | — | — | 3 | 21 | 15% | — | — | — |
| Cristian Arango | F | 30 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 7 | 5% | — | — | — |
| E. Cardona | M | 29 | 6.60 | — | — | 1 | 14 | 14% | — | 1 | — |
| Marlos Moreno | F | 17 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 5 | 5% | — | — | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Independiente Medellin vs Atletico Nacional?
The final score was Independiente Medellin 2–3 Atletico Nacional.
What did the model predict before Independiente Medellin vs Atletico Nacional?
The model assigned 34% probability to a Independiente Medellin win, 27% to a draw, and 38% to an Atletico Nacional win.