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Liga BetPlay · Apertura - 16 April 12, 2026 03:20
Independiente Medellin
#11 · 26 pts
2 – 3
Final score
Atletico Nacional
#1 · 40 pts
D. Catano 3'
D. Londono (ast. A. Serna) 26'
7' A. Sarmiento
10' J. Rengifo
(og) 90'+3 J. Ortiz

The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Atletico Nacional a 38% win probability (draw 27%, Independiente Medellin 34%). The final result was Independiente Medellin 2–3 Atletico Nacional.

Match statistics
10
Total shots
10
7
Shots on target
6
0.42
Actual xG
1.73
6
Saves
5
41%
Possession
59%
3
Corners
4
8
Tackles
9
1
🟨 Yellow cards
2
Match Events
⚽D. Catano
3'
7'
A. Sarmiento⚽
10'
J. Rengifo⚽
⚽D. Londono · ast. A. Serna
26'
↕ D. Catano / Yony Gonzalez
57'
↕ H. Palacios / H. Loboa
64'
66'
C. Arango / M. Uribe ↕
67'
E. Cardona / A. Sarmiento ↕
78'
E. Cardona
↕ A. Serna / D. Moreno
79'
↕ F. Fydriszewski / A. Davila
79'
↕ F. Chaverra / J. Montano
79'
79'
M. Moreno / E. Bello ↕
82'
W. Tesillo
H. Loboa
86'
88'
J. Rosa / A. Morelos ↕
90'+3
(og) J. Ortiz⚽
Pre-match prediction
34.26%
Independiente
27.23%
X
38.51%
Atletico ←
we assigned to the actual result (Atletico Nacional) 38.51% (low confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
Independiente
1.53
0.42
-1.11
Atletico
1.72
1.73
+0.01
Atletico Nacional dominated by xG (1.73 vs 0.42). The final result reflects the playing dominance. The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
League Table
#Team GPts
1 Atletico Nacional Atletico Nacional 19 40
2 Junior Junior 19 35
3 Deportivo Pasto Deportivo Pasto 19 34
4 America de Cali America de Cali 19 33
5 Once Caldas Once Caldas 19 33
6 Deportes Tolima Deportes Tolima 19 31
7 Santa Fe Santa Fe 19 29
8 Internacional de Bogota Internacional de Bogota 19 28
9 Deportivo Cali Deportivo Cali 19 27
10 Millonarios Millonarios 19 26
11 Independiente Medellin Independiente Medellin 19 26
12 Águilas Doradas Águilas Doradas 19 26
13 Bucaramanga Bucaramanga 19 23
14 Llaneros Llaneros 19 22
15 Fortaleza FC Fortaleza FC 19 22
16 Jaguares Jaguares 19 18
17 Alianza Valledupar Alianza Valledupar 19 17
18 Chico Chico 19 17
19 Cucuta Cucuta 19 16
20 Deportivo Pereira Deportivo Pereira 19 10
Lineups
Independiente Medellin Independiente Medellin 4-4-2
25
E. Chaux G 7.30
18 F. Fabra F. Fabra D 6.00
33
D. Londono 1 ⚽ D 7.70
24
J. Ortiz 1 ⚽ D 5.90
30 H. Palacios H. Palacios 64' D 6.20
10
D. Catano 1 ⚽ 57' M 7.30
8
A. Serna 1 👟 79' M 6.60
14
B. Perlaza M 6.60
26
E. Mena Perea M 6.70
19 F. Fydriszewski F. Fydriszewski 79' F 7.20
13
F. Chaverra 79' F 6.90
Bench
31
D. Moreno 17' M 6.30
16
H. Loboa 32' M 6.50
20
J. Montano 17' F 6.30
5
L. Escorcia D
11
Yony Gonzalez 39' F 6.30
Atletico Nacional Atletico Nacional 4-2-3-1
1
G 6.30
20
D 6.90
28 Simon Garcia Simon Garcia D 6.70
16 William Tesillo William Tesillo D 7.00
6 Andrés Román Andrés Román D 5.70
8 Matheus Uribe Matheus Uribe 66' M 6.30
21 Jorman Campuzano Jorman Campuzano M 7.20
29 Andrés Sarmiento Andrés Sarmiento 1 ⚽ 67' M 6.90
18 Eduard Bello Eduard Bello 79' M 6.00
19 Juan Manuel Rengifo Juan Manuel Rengifo 1 ⚽ M 7.20
9 Alfredo Morelos Alfredo Morelos 88' F 6.30
Bench
17 Cristian Arango Cristian Arango 30' F 6.50
27
D. Asprilla F
10 Edwin Cardona Edwin Cardona 29' M 6.60
7
M. Moreno 17' F 6.50
33 Samuel Velásquez Samuel Velásquez M
Best on the pitch
D. Londono
D · Independiente
7.70
1 ⚽
1 shots · 31 pass
E. Chaux
G · Independiente
7.30
· 18 pass
D. Catano
M · Independiente
7.30
1 ⚽
3 shots · 22 pass
Juan Manuel Rengifo
Juan Manuel Rengifo
M · Atletico
7.20
1 ⚽
1 shots · 31 pass
Jorman Campuzano
Jorman Campuzano
M · Atletico
7.20
· 47 pass
F. Fydriszewski
F. Fydriszewski
F · Independiente
7.20
1 shots · 10 pass
Independiente Medellin Independiente Medellin — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
E. Chaux G 96 7.30 — — — 18 17% — — —
F. Fabra D 96 6.00 — — — 29 24% — — —
D. Londono D 96 7.70 1 — 1 31 27% — — —
J. Ortiz D 96 5.90 1 — — 38 35% — — —
H. Palacios D 64 6.20 — — 2 24 21% 2 — —
D. Catano M 57 7.30 1 — 3 22 20% — — —
A. Serna M 79 6.60 — 1 — 27 27% 1 — —
B. Perlaza M 96 6.60 — — — 21 16% 1 — —
E. Mena Perea M 96 6.70 — — 2 18 15% 1 — —
F. Fydriszewski F 79 7.20 — — 1 10 9% 1 — —
F. Chaverra F 79 6.90 — — 1 18 15% 2 — —
D. Moreno M 17 6.30 — — — 3 3% — — —
H. Loboa M 32 6.50 — — — 10 8% — 1 —
J. Montano F 17 6.30 — — — 7 4% — — —
Yony Gonzalez F 39 6.30 — — — 6 3% — — —
Atletico Nacional Atletico Nacional — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
G 96 6.30 — — — 34 28% — — —
D 96 6.90 — — — 36 33% 1 — —
Simon Garcia D 96 6.70 — — 1 70 63% — — —
William Tesillo D 96 7.00 — — — 76 72% 1 1 —
Andrés Román D 96 5.70 — — — 25 23% — — —
Matheus Uribe M 66 6.30 — — 1 28 27% — — —
Jorman Campuzano M 96 7.20 — — — 47 45% 3 — —
Andrés Sarmiento M 67 6.90 1 — 1 10 8% 2 — —
Eduard Bello M 79 6.00 — — 2 19 14% — — —
Juan Manuel Rengifo M 96 7.20 1 — 1 31 27% 2 — —
Alfredo Morelos F 88 6.30 — — 3 21 15% — — —
Cristian Arango F 30 6.50 — — — 7 5% — — —
Edwin Cardona M 29 6.60 — — 1 14 14% — 1 —
M. Moreno F 17 6.50 — — — 5 5% — — —
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Independiente Medellin vs Atletico Nacional?
The final score was Independiente Medellin 2–3 Atletico Nacional.
What did the model predict before Independiente Medellin vs Atletico Nacional?
The model assigned 34% probability to a Independiente Medellin win, 27% to a draw, and 38% to an Atletico Nacional win.