Copa Libertadores
· Group Stage - 3
May 01, 2026 04:00
F. Fydriszewski
(ast. J. Montano)
87'
The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Independiente Medellin a 48% win probability (draw 27%, Cusco 24%). The final result was Independiente Medellin 1–0 Cusco. In 1 previous meetings, Independiente Medellin have won 1 times, with 0 draws and 0 wins for Cusco.
Match statistics
17
Total shots
9
6
Shots on target
1
1.13
Actual xG
0.36
1
Saves
5
63%
Possession
37%
6
Corners
1
12
Tackles
13
3
🟨 Yellow cards
2
Match Events
D. Catano
/ D. Moreno
46'
56'
C. Diez
/
G. Carabajal
63'
J. Zevallos
F. Chaverra
63'
F. Chaverra
/ J. Montano
63'
E. Mena Perea
/ H. Palacios
64'
H. Loboa
/ B. Perlaza
70'
74'
P. Diaz
78'
J. Bolivar
/
J. Manzaneda
H. Palacios
79'
⚽F. Fydriszewski
· ast. J. Montano
87'
90'+1
I. Colman
/
D. Soto
90'+1
J. Tevez
/
J. Zevallos
Yony Gonzalez
/ L. Chaverra
90'+1
F. Fabra
90'+3
Pre-match prediction
48.75%
Independiente ←
27.12%
X
24.13%
Cusco
we assigned to the actual result (Independiente Medellin)
48.75%
(medium confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
1.37
1.13
-0.24
0.93
0.36
-0.57
Independiente Medellin dominated by xG (1.13 vs 0.36).
The final result reflects the playing dominance.
The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
Lineups
25
E. Chaux
G
E. Chaux
G
18
F. Fabra
D
F. Fabra
D
33
D. Londoño
D
D. Londoño
D
24
J. Ortiz
D
J. Ortiz
D
26
E. Mena
64'
D
E. Mena
64'
D
11
Y. González
M
Y. González
M
8
Alexis Serna
M
Alexis Serna
M
16
H. Loboa
70'
M
H. Loboa
70'
M
13
F. Chaverra
63'
M
F. Chaverra
63'
M
10
D. Cataño
45'
F
D. Cataño
45'
F
19
F. Fydriszewski
1 ⚽
F
F. Fydriszewski
1 ⚽
F
Bench
14
B. Perlaza
25'
M
B. Perlaza
25'
M
6
D. Moreno
50'
M
D. Moreno
50'
M
31
D. Moreno
M
D. Moreno
M
30
H. Palacios
31'
D
H. Palacios
31'
D
20
J. Montaño
1 👟
32'
F
J. Montaño
1 👟
32'
F
2
L. Chaverra
4'
D
L. Chaverra
4'
D
5
L. Escorcia
D
L. Escorcia
D
28
P. Díaz
G
P. Díaz
G
21
J. Zevallos
D
J. Zevallos
D
6
D
8
A. Fuentes
D
A. Fuentes
D
24
M. Ruidías
D
M. Ruidías
D
7
J. Manzaneda
78'
M
J. Manzaneda
78'
M
16
O. Valenzuela
M
O. Valenzuela
M
88
D. Soto
M
D. Soto
M
26
N. Silva
M
N. Silva
M
27
Gabriel Carabajal
56'
F
Gabriel Carabajal
56'
F
9
F. Callejo
F
F. Callejo
F
Bench
14
C. Diez
39'
M
C. Diez
39'
M
10
I. Colman
4'
M
I. Colman
4'
M
15
J. Bolívar
17'
D
J. Bolívar
17'
D
77
J. Herrera
M
J. Herrera
M
11
J. Tévez
4'
F
J. Tévez
4'
F
32
Julinho Astudillo
D
Julinho Astudillo
D
5
M. Aucca
M
Best on the pitch
Alexis Serna
M · Independiente
8.20
· 72 pass
J. Montaño
F · Independiente
7.20
1 👟
· 13 pass
O. Valenzuela
M · Cusco
7.20
1 shots
· 30 pass
D. Londoño
D · Independiente
7.20
1 shots
· 66 pass
J. Ortiz
D · Independiente
7.20
· 42 pass
E. Mena
D · Independiente
7.20
· 33 pass
Independiente Medellin — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| E. Chaux | G | 95 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 19 | 16% | — | — | — |
| F. Fabra | D | 95 | 6.60 | — | — | 1 | 55 | 50% | 1 | 1 | — |
| D. Londoño | D | 95 | 7.20 | — | — | 1 | 66 | 61% | — | — | — |
| J. Ortiz | D | 95 | 7.20 | — | — | — | 42 | 41% | 1 | — | — |
| E. Mena | D | 64 | 7.20 | — | — | — | 33 | 27% | 1 | — | — |
| Y. González | M | 91 | 6.90 | — | — | 3 | 26 | 25% | — | — | — |
| Alexis Serna | M | 95 | 8.20 | — | — | — | 72 | 68% | 3 | — | — |
| H. Loboa | M | 70 | 7.20 | — | — | 1 | 61 | 58% | 2 | — | — |
| F. Chaverra | M | 63 | 6.90 | — | — | 3 | 38 | 34% | — | 1 | — |
| D. Cataño | F | 45 | 6.90 | — | — | 2 | 27 | 24% | 1 | — | — |
| F. Fydriszewski | F | 95 | 7.20 | 1 | — | 4 | 12 | 9% | — | — | — |
| B. Perlaza | M | 25 | 6.70 | — | — | 1 | 7 | 6% | 1 | — | — |
| D. Moreno | M | 50 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 31 | 29% | — | — | — |
| H. Palacios | D | 31 | 6.70 | — | — | 1 | 8 | 6% | 2 | 1 | — |
| J. Montaño | F | 32 | 7.20 | — | 1 | — | 13 | 10% | — | — | — |
| L. Chaverra | D | 4 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — | — | — | — |
Cusco — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P. Díaz | G | 95 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 28 | 18% | — | 1 | — |
| J. Zevallos | D | 91 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 28 | 22% | 2 | 1 | — |
| D | 95 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 24 | 18% | 1 | — | — | |
| A. Fuentes | D | 95 | 6.90 | — | — | 1 | 19 | 19% | — | — | — |
| M. Ruidías | D | 95 | 7.00 | — | — | — | 37 | 35% | 4 | — | — |
| J. Manzaneda | M | 78 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 25 | 22% | 2 | — | — |
| O. Valenzuela | M | 95 | 7.20 | — | — | 1 | 30 | 27% | 2 | — | — |
| D. Soto | M | 91 | 6.30 | — | — | 1 | 29 | 24% | 2 | — | — |
| N. Silva | M | 95 | 6.30 | — | — | 1 | 24 | 15% | — | — | — |
| Gabriel Carabajal | F | 56 | 6.60 | — | — | 1 | 21 | 17% | — | — | — |
| F. Callejo | F | 95 | 6.20 | — | — | 4 | 18 | 13% | — | — | — |
| C. Diez | M | 39 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 5 | 3% | — | — | — |
| I. Colman | M | 4 | — | — | — | — | 7 | 5% | — | — | — |
| J. Bolívar | D | 17 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 8 | 7% | — | — | — |
| J. Tévez | F | 4 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Independiente Medellin vs Cusco?
The final score was Independiente Medellin 1–0 Cusco.
What did the model predict before Independiente Medellin vs Cusco?
The model assigned 48% probability to a Independiente Medellin win, 27% to a draw, and 24% to an Cusco win.