Independiente Medellin - Millonarios
Weather at kick-off
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16.9°C
💨 1 km/h
· Medellin
⚡ Pre-match analysis
46.11%
Win
Independiente Medellin
25.05%
Draw
28.84%
Win
Millonarios
1.58
1.1
Expected xG
Market probabilities
Most likely result
1–0
(11.45%)
1X2 Result
1
46%
X
25%
2
29%
Double Chance
1X
71%
X2
54%
12
75%
Over / Under
Over 1.5
74%
Over 2.5
47%
✓ 57.1% hit rate (28 picks)
The ForzaPitch prediction gives Independiente Medellin a 46% win probability, against 25% for a draw and 28% for Millonarios. Expected goals are 1.6 for Independiente Medellin and 1.1 for Millonarios (total 2.7), with a 73% probability of Over 1.5 goals. The most likely scoreline is 1–0 at 11.45% probability. In 1 previous meetings, Independiente Medellin have won 0 times, with 1 draws and 0 wins for Millonarios.
Season Stats
9W
2D
4L
6W
6D
3L
Averages per game
1.7
Goals
1.4
1.1
Conceded
0.9
4.9
Shots OT
6.3
4.4
Corners
5.2
53%
Poss.
50%
Percentages
73%
O 1.5
80%
60%
O 2.5
33%
60%
BTTS
53%
33%
Clean Sht
40%
ℹ
Based on the last 15 matches in Liga BetPlay. Bars use fixed scales (goals max 3.5, percentages 0–100%).
Venue Form
Goals signal (venue avg)
25%
O 3.5
65%
BTTS
7W
0D
3L
· at home
3W
4D
3L
· away
1.6
gls/g
1.3
1.1
Conceded
1.3
70%
Win %
30%
70%
Win or Draw
70%
70%
O 1.5
80%
60%
O 2.5
40%
20%
O 3.5
30%
60%
BTTS
70%
30%
Clean Sht
20%
10%
Failed to Score
10%
last 10
ℹ
Home team's record in home matches only · Away team's record in away matches only.
Score Matrix
↕ Independiente Medellin
Millonarios →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.9% | 7.6% | 4.2% | 1.5% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| 1 | 10.9% | 11.9% | 6.6% | 2.4% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| 2 | 8.6% | 9.4% | 5.2% | 1.9% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| 3 | 4.5% | 4.9% | 2.7% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| 4 | 1.8% | 1.9% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.1% | — |
| 5 | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.1% | — | — |
Recent form
Playing profile
Independiente Medellin
Attack
46
Defence
68
Form
62
Millonarios
Attack
50
Defence
72
Form
57
Indices on a 0–100 scale calculated by the model
Head-to-Head
0
1
Draw
0
2 Feb 2026
0–0
Clausura
| # | Team | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
America de Cali
|
11 | 24 |
| 2 |
Millonarios
|
12 | 20 |
| 3 |
Atletico Nacional
|
9 | 19 |
| 4 |
Independiente Medellin
|
9 | 19 |
| 5 |
Deportivo Cali
|
10 | 18 |
| 6 |
Bucaramanga
|
9 | 17 |
| 7 |
Deportes Tolima
|
10 | 17 |
| 8 |
Santa Fe
|
10 | 16 |
| 9 |
Llaneros
|
10 | 14 |
| 10 |
Once Caldas
|
10 | 12 |
| 11 |
Águilas Doradas
|
9 | 11 |
| 12 |
Internacional de Bogota
|
11 | 11 |
| 13 |
Cucuta
|
10 | 9 |
| 14 |
Fortaleza FC
|
10 | 8 |
| 15 |
Deportivo Pasto
|
10 | 8 |
| 16 |
Alianza Valledupar
|
10 | 8 |
| 17 |
Chico
|
9 | 8 |
| 18 |
Deportivo Pereira
|
8 | 7 |
| 19 |
Jaguares
|
9 | 7 |
| 20 |
Junior
|
8 | 6 |
What's at stake · Clausura
Top 2 advance to the next round
| Current | #4 | #2 |
| → Independiente Medellin | #2 | #3 |
| → Draw | #3 | #2 |
| → Millonarios | #4 | #2 |
Projected ranking after this match only. Goal difference tiebreakers not applied.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who will win Independiente Medellin vs Millonarios?
The model gives Independiente Medellin a 46% win probability, 25% for a draw, and 28% for an Millonarios win.
How many goals are expected in Independiente Medellin vs Millonarios?
Expected goals: Independiente Medellin 1.6, Millonarios 1.1 (total 2.7). Probability of over 1.5 goals: 73%.
What is the most likely score in Independiente Medellin vs Millonarios?
1–0 is the most probable final score, with an estimated probability of 11.45%.