Copa Sudamericana
· Group Stage - 5
May 21, 2026 02:00
✓Model correct — prediction Botafogo
24'
C. Medina
82'
(ast. J. Correa)
J. Barrera
(og)
87'
J. Gutierrez
The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Botafogo a 62% win probability (draw 17%, Independiente Petrolero 19%). The final result was Independiente Petrolero 0–3 Botafogo. In 1 previous meetings, Independiente Petrolero have won 0 times, with 0 draws and 1 wins for Botafogo.
Match statistics
0
Total shots
39
0
Shots on target
20
0.23
Actual xG
6.72
16
Saves
0
33%
Possession
67%
1
Corners
5
13
Tackles
12
3
🟨 Yellow cards
0
Match Events
Eduardo
21'
24'
C. Medina⚽
F. Rodriguez
/ H. Leanos
29'
D. Navarro
/ A. Mercado
46'
61'
C. Ramos
/
Arthur Cabral
62'
Caio Valle
/
L. M. Villalba Jaume
Willie
/ Adelan
63'
R. Montero
67'
G. Cristaldo
/ R. Lutkowski
73'
R. Montero
/ Wagner Pinote
73'
73'
S. Rodriguez
/
Huguinho
77'
J. Barrera
/
A. Montoro
78'
J. Correa
/
Kauan Toledo
82'
ast. J. Correa ·
J. Barrera⚽
R. Lutkowski
84'
87'
(og)
J. Gutierrez⚽
Pre-match prediction
19.56%
Independiente
17.85%
X
62.59%
Botafogo ←
✓ Correct prediction —
we assigned to the actual result (Botafogo)
62.59%
(high confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
1.56
0.23
-1.33
3.19
6.72
+3.53
Botafogo dominated by xG (6.72 vs 0.23).
The final result reflects the playing dominance.
The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
Lineups
1
J. Gutiérrez
1 ⚽
G
J. Gutiérrez
1 ⚽
G
4
F. Rodríguez
29'
D
F. Rodríguez
29'
D
16
Ronny Montero
73'
D
Ronny Montero
73'
D
5
Luis Braihan Palma Escobar
D
Luis Braihan Palma Escobar
D
27
D. Navarro
45'
D
D. Navarro
45'
D
3
Eduardo Porto
D
Eduardo Porto
D
19
G. Cristaldo
73'
M
G. Cristaldo
73'
M
6
D. Rojas
M
D. Rojas
M
93
Willie
63'
M
Willie
63'
M
7
R. Cardozo
M
R. Cardozo
M
23
R. Rivas
F
R. Rivas
F
Bench
88
Adelan Santos Da Silva
30'
M
Adelan Santos Da Silva
30'
M
20
A. Mercado
48'
M
A. Mercado
48'
M
14
Cristian Jhamil Urdininea Zambrana
M
Cristian Jhamil Urdininea Zambrana
M
50
Diego Vargas
D
Diego Vargas
D
32
Heber Leanos
64'
D
Heber Leanos
64'
D
12
Jhunior Vera
G
Jhunior Vera
G
39
Pablo Grass
D
Pablo Grass
D
11
Rafael Lutkowski
20'
F
Rafael Lutkowski
20'
F
59
Roberto Villavicencio
D
Roberto Villavicencio
D
77
R. Zamora
D
R. Zamora
D
99
Wagner
20'
F
Wagner
20'
F
22
Neto
G
Neto
G
13
Alex Telles
D
Alex Telles
D
20
A. Barboza
D
A. Barboza
D
5
Nahuel Ferraresi
D
Nahuel Ferraresi
D
4
M. Ponte
D
M. Ponte
D
10
Álvaro Montoro
77'
M
Álvaro Montoro
77'
M
6
C. Medina
1 ⚽
M
C. Medina
1 ⚽
M
75
Huguinho
73'
M
Huguinho
73'
M
77
L. Villalba
62'
M
L. Villalba
62'
M
59
Kauan Toledo
78'
F
Kauan Toledo
78'
F
19
Arthur Cabral
61'
F
Arthur Cabral
61'
F
Bench
45
Caio Valle
31'
M
Caio Valle
31'
M
9
Chris Ramos
32'
F
Chris Ramos
32'
F
88
Edenílson
M
Edenílson
M
34
G. Justino
D
G. Justino
D
30
J. Correa
1 👟
15'
F
J. Correa
1 👟
15'
F
14
Jordan Barrera
1 ⚽
16'
M
Jordan Barrera
1 ⚽
16'
M
37
K. Barria
F
K. Barria
F
21
Marçal
D
Marçal
D
1
Raul
G
23
S. Rodríguez
20'
M
S. Rodríguez
20'
M
2
Vitinho
D
Vitinho
D
55
Wallace Davi
M
Wallace Davi
M
Best on the pitch
J. Gutiérrez
G · Independiente
10.00
1 ⚽
· 34 pass
C. Medina
M · Botafogo
8.60
1 ⚽
3 shots
· 75 pass
Alex Telles
D · Botafogo
8.30
4 shots
· 48 pass
A. Barboza
D · Botafogo
8.20
1 shots
· 93 pass
Nahuel Ferraresi
D · Botafogo
7.60
1 shots
· 74 pass
Álvaro Montoro
M · Botafogo
7.30
1 shots
· 49 pass
Independiente Petrolero — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Gutiérrez | G | 93 | 10.00 | 1 | — | — | 34 | 17% | — | — | — |
| F. Rodríguez | D | 29 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 6 | 5% | — | — | — |
| Ronny Montero | D | 73 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 12 | 8% | — | 1 | — |
| Luis Braihan Palma Escobar | D | 93 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 23 | 13% | 3 | — | — |
| D. Navarro | D | 45 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 5 | 2% | 1 | — | — |
| Eduardo Porto | D | 93 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 28 | 19% | — | 1 | — |
| G. Cristaldo | M | 73 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 19 | 13% | — | — | — |
| D. Rojas | M | 93 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 46 | 38% | 2 | — | — |
| Willie | M | 63 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 31 | 23% | 1 | — | — |
| R. Cardozo | M | 93 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 33 | 23% | — | — | — |
| R. Rivas | F | 93 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 6 | 6% | — | — | — |
| Adelan Santos Da Silva | M | 30 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 10 | 8% | — | — | — |
| A. Mercado | M | 48 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 7 | 6% | 1 | — | — |
| Heber Leanos | D | 64 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 18 | 12% | 5 | — | — |
| Rafael Lutkowski | F | 20 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 6 | 4% | — | 1 | — |
| Wagner | F | 20 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 3 | 2% | — | — | — |
Botafogo — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Neto | G | 93 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 14 | 13% | — | — | — |
| Alex Telles | D | 93 | 8.30 | — | — | 4 | 48 | 44% | — | — | — |
| A. Barboza | D | 93 | 8.20 | — | — | 1 | 93 | 76% | 2 | — | — |
| Nahuel Ferraresi | D | 93 | 7.60 | — | — | 1 | 74 | 68% | 2 | — | — |
| M. Ponte | D | 93 | 7.30 | — | — | 2 | 53 | 48% | — | — | — |
| Álvaro Montoro | M | 77 | 7.30 | — | — | 1 | 49 | 42% | — | — | — |
| C. Medina | M | 93 | 8.60 | 1 | — | 3 | 75 | 69% | 3 | — | — |
| Huguinho | M | 73 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 63 | 56% | 2 | — | — |
| L. Villalba | M | 62 | 6.20 | — | — | 6 | 13 | 8% | — | — | — |
| Kauan Toledo | F | 78 | 6.20 | — | — | 11 | 30 | 23% | 1 | — | — |
| Arthur Cabral | F | 61 | 6.30 | — | — | 2 | 22 | 17% | — | — | — |
| Caio Valle | M | 31 | 6.70 | — | — | 1 | 9 | 5% | — | — | — |
| Chris Ramos | F | 32 | 6.30 | — | — | 3 | 4 | 3% | 1 | — | — |
| J. Correa | F | 15 | 6.30 | — | 1 | 2 | 13 | 11% | — | — | — |
| Jordan Barrera | M | 16 | 6.90 | 1 | — | 1 | 9 | 5% | — | — | — |
| S. Rodríguez | M | 20 | 7.20 | — | — | 1 | 21 | 19% | 1 | — | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Independiente Petrolero vs Botafogo?
The final score was Independiente Petrolero 0–3 Botafogo.
What did the model predict before Independiente Petrolero vs Botafogo?
The model assigned 19% probability to a Independiente Petrolero win, 17% to a draw, and 62% to an Botafogo win.