Copa Sudamericana
· Group Stage - 4
May 06, 2026 00:00
R. Rivas
(ast. R. Cardozo)
55'
J. E. Cristaldo
(ast. R. Montero)
59'
(og)
4'
F. Rodriguez
15'
(ast. I. Gudino)
A. Fernandez
67'
W. Correa
The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Caracas FC a 36% win probability (draw 27%, Independiente Petrolero 35%). The final result was Independiente Petrolero 2–3 Caracas FC. In 1 previous meetings, Independiente Petrolero have won 0 times, with 0 draws and 1 wins for Caracas FC.
Match statistics
18
Total shots
13
8
Shots on target
9
1.66
Actual xG
2.56
7
Saves
6
57%
Possession
43%
4
Corners
5
20
Tackles
10
0
🟨 Yellow cards
2
1
🟥 Red cards
0
Match Events
4'
(og)
F. Rodriguez⚽
15'
ast. I. Gudino ·
A. Fernandez⚽
S. Torres
28'
A. Mercado
/ L. Montenegro
34'
F. Rodriguez
/ Wagner Pinote
46'
G. Cristaldo
/ R. Rivas
46'
46'
L. Reinoso
/
M. Covea
⚽R. Rivas
· ast. R. Cardozo
55'
57'
E. E. Fereira Penaranda
⚽J. E. Cristaldo
· ast. R. Montero
59'
67'
W. Correa⚽
82'
R. Lezama
/
Robert Hernandez
R. Cardozo
/ R. Lutkowski
82'
83'
M. Marquez
/
W. Correa
83'
S. Gonzalez
/
A. Fernandez
D. Rojas
/ Adelan
83'
90'+1
I. Gudino
90'+4
F. La Mantia
/
L. Reinoso
Pre-match prediction
35.78%
Independiente
27.94%
X
36.28%
Caracas ←
we assigned to the actual result (Caracas FC)
36.28%
(low confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
1.31
1.66
+0.35
1.40
2.56
+1.16
Caracas FC dominated by xG (2.56 vs 1.66).
The final result reflects the playing dominance.
The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
Lineups
1
G
4
Francisco Rodriguez
1 ⚽
45'
D
Francisco Rodriguez
1 ⚽
45'
D
16
Ronny Montero
1 👟
D
Ronny Montero
1 👟
D
5
Luis Palma
D
Luis Palma
D
2
S. Torres
28'
D
S. Torres
28'
D
93
Willie
M
Willie
M
6
Daniel Rojas
83'
M
Daniel Rojas
83'
M
19
Gustavo Cristaldo
45'
M
Gustavo Cristaldo
45'
M
7
Rudy Cardozo
1 👟
82'
F
Rudy Cardozo
1 👟
82'
F
9
J. Cristaldo
1 ⚽
F
J. Cristaldo
1 ⚽
F
20
A. Mercado
34'
F
A. Mercado
34'
F
Bench
88
Adelan Santos Da Silva
13'
M
Adelan Santos Da Silva
13'
M
27
Diego Navarro
F
Diego Navarro
F
50
Diego Vargas
D
Diego Vargas
D
32
Heber Leanos
D
Heber Leanos
D
13
L. Montenegro
56'
D
11
Rafael Lutkowski
8'
F
Rafael Lutkowski
8'
F
23
R. Rivas
1 ⚽
45'
F
R. Rivas
1 ⚽
45'
F
1
G
13
Jesus Yendis
D
Jesus Yendis
D
19
L. Del Pino
D
L. Del Pino
D
4
Jesús Quintero
D
Jesús Quintero
D
2
Eduardo Fereira
D
Eduardo Fereira
D
8
Irving Gudiño
1 👟
M
Irving Gudiño
1 👟
M
15
Christian Larotonda
M
Christian Larotonda
M
7
Robert Hernández
82'
M
Robert Hernández
82'
M
10
Michael Covea
45'
M
Michael Covea
45'
M
33
Wilfred Correa Sanmartín
1 ⚽
83'
M
Wilfred Correa Sanmartín
1 ⚽
83'
M
9
Adrián Fernández
1 ⚽
83'
F
Adrián Fernández
1 ⚽
83'
F
Bench
22
Angel Figueroa
M
Angel Figueroa
M
37
Charly Vegas
F
Charly Vegas
F
14
F. La Mantia
1'
D
F. La Mantia
1'
D
17
Lucciano Reinoso
44'
F
Lucciano Reinoso
44'
F
3
Luigi Pagano
D
Luigi Pagano
D
20
Luis Maestre
M
Luis Maestre
M
11
Mauricio Márquez
13'
F
Mauricio Márquez
13'
F
35
Rodhier Lezama
8'
F
Rodhier Lezama
8'
F
27
Sebastián González
13'
F
Sebastián González
13'
F
Best on the pitch
Adrián Fernández
F · Caracas
7.90
1 ⚽
3 shots
· 26 pass
J. Cristaldo
F · Independiente
7.90
1 ⚽
5 shots
· 20 pass
G · Independiente
7.90
· 23 pass
Wilfred Correa Sanmartín
M · Caracas
7.60
1 ⚽
4 shots
· 17 pass
Rudy Cardozo
F · Independiente
7.50
1 👟
3 shots
· 44 pass
Ronny Montero
D · Independiente
7.20
1 👟
1 shots
· 42 pass
Independiente Petrolero — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | 90 | 7.90 | — | — | — | 23 | 19% | — | — | — | |
| Francisco Rodriguez | D | 45 | 6.00 | 1 | — | — | 24 | 16% | 2 | — | — |
| Ronny Montero | D | 90 | 7.20 | — | 1 | 1 | 42 | 37% | 3 | — | — |
| Luis Palma | D | 90 | 6.30 | — | — | 1 | 50 | 41% | 7 | — | — |
| S. Torres | D | 28 | 4.90 | — | — | — | 10 | 8% | 1 | — | 1 |
| Willie | M | 90 | 6.60 | — | — | 3 | 49 | 39% | 1 | — | — |
| Daniel Rojas | M | 83 | 7.20 | — | — | 2 | 63 | 56% | 3 | — | — |
| Gustavo Cristaldo | M | 45 | 7.20 | — | — | — | 27 | 23% | 1 | — | — |
| Rudy Cardozo | F | 82 | 7.50 | — | 1 | 3 | 44 | 40% | 2 | — | — |
| J. Cristaldo | F | 90 | 7.90 | 1 | — | 5 | 20 | 18% | — | — | — |
| A. Mercado | F | 34 | 6.20 | — | — | 1 | 9 | 7% | — | — | — |
| Adelan Santos Da Silva | M | 13 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 7 | 5% | — | — | — |
| L. Montenegro | D | 56 | 6.90 | — | — | 1 | 35 | 32% | — | — | — |
| Rafael Lutkowski | F | 8 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 1 | — | — | — | — |
| R. Rivas | F | 45 | 7.20 | 1 | — | 1 | 9 | 5% | — | — | — |
Caracas FC — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | 90 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 28 | 19% | — | — | — | |
| Jesus Yendis | D | 90 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 33 | 29% | 1 | — | — |
| L. Del Pino | D | 90 | 6.30 | — | — | 2 | 25 | 21% | — | — | — |
| Jesús Quintero | D | 90 | 6.90 | — | — | 2 | 30 | 27% | 1 | — | — |
| Eduardo Fereira | D | 90 | 5.90 | — | — | — | 18 | 14% | — | 1 | — |
| Irving Gudiño | M | 90 | 6.70 | — | 1 | 1 | 33 | 31% | 1 | 1 | — |
| Christian Larotonda | M | 90 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 36 | 30% | 3 | — | — |
| Robert Hernández | M | 82 | 5.90 | — | — | — | 26 | 18% | — | — | — |
| Michael Covea | M | 45 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 21 | 19% | — | — | — |
| Wilfred Correa Sanmartín | M | 83 | 7.60 | 1 | — | 4 | 17 | 13% | 2 | — | — |
| Adrián Fernández | F | 83 | 7.90 | 1 | — | 3 | 26 | 18% | — | — | — |
| F. La Mantia | D | 1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Lucciano Reinoso | F | 44 | 6.90 | — | — | 1 | 16 | 14% | 1 | — | — |
| Mauricio Márquez | F | 13 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 4 | 2% | — | — | — |
| Rodhier Lezama | F | 8 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 4 | 4% | 1 | — | — |
| Sebastián González | F | 13 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 2 | 1% | — | — | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Independiente Petrolero vs Caracas FC?
The final score was Independiente Petrolero 2–3 Caracas FC.
What did the model predict before Independiente Petrolero vs Caracas FC?
The model assigned 35% probability to a Independiente Petrolero win, 27% to a draw, and 36% to an Caracas FC win.