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Liga Profesional · Clausura - 14 October 25, 2026 21:00 Libertadores de America, Buenos Aires
Independiente
#5 · 24 pts
0 – 1
Final score
Boca Juniors
#2 · 30 pts
✓Model correct — prediction Boca Juniors
88' (ast. Sebastián Villa) Facundo Ezequiel Herrera
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The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Boca Juniors a 56% win probability (draw 21%, Independiente 22%). The final result was Independiente 0–1 Boca Juniors. In 1 previous meetings, Independiente have won 0 times, with 1 draws and 0 wins for Boca Juniors.

Match statistics
23
Total shots
10
5
Shots on target
4
1.68
Actual xG
1.62
3
Saves
5
34%
Possession
66%
4
Corners
3
20
Tackles
21
3
🟨 Yellow cards
4
Match Events
20'
Lautaro Di Lollo
Iván Marcone
45'+1
Chimy Ávila
53'
60'
Sebastián Villa / Alan Velasco ↕
Mateo Pérez Curci
64'
66'
Enner Valencia / Miguel Merentiel ↕
67'
Milton Delgado
↕ Josias Palais / Matías Abaldo
69'
77'
Facundo Ezequiel Herrera
↕ Maximiliano Meza / Iván Morales
77'
↕ Mateo Pérez Curci / Rubén David Martínez
78'
81'
Carlos Palacios / Leonel Flores ↕
↕ Chimy Ávila / Tomás Parmo
86'
↕ Santiago Gabriel Montiel / Felipe Tempone
86'
88'
ast. Sebastián Villa · Facundo Ezequiel Herrera⚽
90'+2
Malcon Braida
Pre-match prediction
22.87%
Independiente
21.03%
X
56.1%
Boca ←
✓ Correct prediction — we assigned to the actual result (Boca Juniors) 56.1% (medium confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
Independiente
1.14
1.68
+0.54
Boca
2.03
1.62
-0.41
xG dominance was balanced (1.68 – 1.62). The final result does not reflect the playing dominance. The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
League Table
#Team GPts
1 Estudiantes L.P. Estudiantes L.P. 16 31
2 Boca Juniors Boca Juniors 16 30
3 Velez Sarsfield Velez Sarsfield 16 28
4 Talleres Cordoba Talleres Cordoba 16 26
5 Independiente Independiente 16 24
6 Lanus Lanus 16 24
7 San Lorenzo San Lorenzo 16 22
8 Union Santa Fe Union Santa Fe 16 21
9 Instituto Cordoba Instituto Cordoba 16 21
10 Defensa Y Justicia Defensa Y Justicia 16 19
11 Gimnasia M. Gimnasia M. 16 19
12 Platense Platense 16 16
13 Central Cordoba de Santiago Central Cordoba de Santiago 16 16
14 Newells Old Boys Newells Old Boys 16 15
15 Deportivo Riestra Deportivo Riestra 16 11
Lineups
Independiente Independiente 4-3-3
77 S. Mele S. Mele G 6.56
5 N. Banegas N. Banegas D 6.30
35 J. Arrayago J. Arrayago D 6.66
36 S. Valdez S. Valdez D 7.15
4 S. Arias S. Arias D 6.08
8 M. Meza M. Meza 77' M 5.80
23 I. Marcone I. Marcone M 6.27
16 M. Perez M. Perez 78' M 6.39
24 J. Palais J. Palais 69' F 6.05
6 E. Ávila E. Ávila 86' F 6.75
7 S. Montiel S. Montiel 86' F 6.44
Bench
32 D. Martínez D. Martínez 12' M 6.21
2 F. Calderón F. Calderón D 0.00
34 F. Tempone F. Tempone 4' F 5.94
22 F. Zabala F. Zabala D 0.00
9 I. Morales I. Morales 13' F 6.62
13 J. Fedorco J. Fedorco D 0.00
14 Lautaro Millán Lautaro Millán M 0.00
10 L. Cabral L. Cabral M 0.00
29 L. Godoy L. Godoy D 0.00
19 M. Abaldo M. Abaldo 21' F 6.54
33 R. Rey R. Rey G 0.00
Boca Juniors Boca Juniors 4-2-3-1
1 Á. Montero Á. Montero G 8.24
27 M. Braida M. Braida D 6.74
42 F. Herrera F. Herrera 1 ⚽ D 7.51
2 L. Di Lollo L. Di Lollo D 6.48
17 L. Lozano L. Lozano D 7.26
18 M. Delgado M. Delgado M 7.05
5 L. Paredes L. Paredes M 6.58
19 L. Flores L. Flores 81' M 6.68
20 A. Velasco A. Velasco 60' M 6.76
25 S. Ascacíbar S. Ascacíbar M 6.49
16 M. Merentiel M. Merentiel 66' F 6.29
Bench
32 A. Costa A. Costa D 0.00
7 C. Palacios C. Palacios 9' M 6.39
24 D. Gorosito D. Gorosito D 0.00
13 E. Valencia E. Valencia 24' F 6.83
12 L. Brey L. Brey G 0.00
26 Marco Pellegrino Marco Pellegrino D 0.00
9 M. Giménez M. Giménez F 0.00
4 N. Figal N. Figal D 0.00
6 R. Battaglia R. Battaglia M 0.00
22 S. Villa S. Villa 1 👟 30' F 6.98
15 W. Alarcón W. Alarcón M 0.00
Best on the pitch
Á. Montero
Á. Montero
G · Boca
8.24
· 25 pass
F. Herrera
F. Herrera
D · Boca
7.51
1 ⚽
1 shots · 83 pass
L. Lozano
L. Lozano
D · Boca
7.26
· 41 pass
S. Valdez
S. Valdez
D · Independiente
7.15
1 shots · 34 pass
M. Delgado
M. Delgado
M · Boca
7.05
1 shots · 85 pass
S. Villa
S. Villa
F · Boca
6.98
1 👟
· 14 pass
Independiente Independiente — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
S. Mele G 90 6.56 — — 0 22 13% 0 — —
N. Banegas D 90 6.30 — — 4 30 21% 2 — —
J. Arrayago D 90 6.66 — — 0 27 22% 3 — —
S. Valdez D 90 7.15 — — 1 34 30% 4 — —
S. Arias D 90 6.08 — — 1 25 17% 1 — —
M. Meza M 77 5.80 — — 5 34 21% 1 — —
I. Marcone M 90 6.27 — — 0 27 21% 4 1 —
M. Perez M 78 6.39 — — 1 23 18% 1 1 —
J. Palais F 69 6.05 — — 2 11 7% 0 — —
E. Ávila F 86 6.75 — — 2 24 21% 0 1 —
S. Montiel F 86 6.44 — — 5 31 22% 3 — —
D. Martínez M 12 6.21 — — 0 7 3% 0 — —
F. Tempone F 4 5.94 — — 0 4 2% 0 — —
I. Morales F 13 6.62 — — 2 2 1% 0 — —
M. Abaldo F 21 6.54 — — 0 7 6% 1 — —
Boca Juniors Boca Juniors — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
Á. Montero G 90 8.24 — — 0 25 23% 0 — —
M. Braida D 90 6.74 — — 0 36 32% 4 1 —
F. Herrera D 90 7.51 1 — 1 83 73% 2 1 —
L. Di Lollo D 90 6.48 — — 0 94 83% 2 1 —
L. Lozano D 90 7.26 — — 0 41 37% 3 — —
M. Delgado M 90 7.05 — — 1 85 80% 5 1 —
L. Paredes M 90 6.58 — — 0 105 88% 1 — —
L. Flores M 81 6.68 — — 3 28 24% 0 — —
A. Velasco M 60 6.76 — — 1 28 22% 2 — —
S. Ascacíbar M 90 6.49 — — 2 29 27% 1 — —
M. Merentiel F 66 6.29 — — 2 14 10% 1 — —
C. Palacios M 9 6.39 — — 0 10 7% 0 — —
E. Valencia F 24 6.83 — — 0 10 8% 0 — —
S. Villa F 30 6.98 — 1 0 14 11% 0 — —
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Independiente vs Boca Juniors?
The final score was Independiente 0–1 Boca Juniors.
What did the model predict before Independiente vs Boca Juniors?
The model assigned 22% probability to a Independiente win, 21% to a draw, and 56% to an Boca Juniors win.