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Independiente - San Lorenzo

Liga Profesional September 14, 2026 00:15
Independiente
#5 · 24 pts
vs
San Lorenzo
#7 · 22 pts
⚡ Pre-match analysis
49.73%
Win
Independiente
29.65%
Draw
20.62%
Win
San Lorenzo
1.19
Expected xG
0.64

Market probabilities

Most likely result 1–0 (19.69%)
1X2 Result ✓ 82.4% hit rate (17 picks)
1 50%
X 30%
2 21%
Double Chance
1X 79%
X2 50%
12 70%
Over / Under
Over 1.5 58%
Over 2.5 34%
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The ForzaPitch prediction gives Independiente a 49% win probability, against 29% for a draw and 20% for San Lorenzo. Expected goals are 1.2 for Independiente and 0.6 for San Lorenzo (total 1.8), with a 58% probability of Over 1.5 goals. The most likely scoreline is 1–0 at 19.69% probability. In 1 previous meetings, Independiente have won 1 times, with 0 draws and 0 wins for San Lorenzo.

Season Stats

Independiente
7W 2D 6L
San Lorenzo
5W 5D 5L
Averages per game
1.1
Goals
0.5
1.1
Conceded
0.6
3.7
Shots OT
3.9
5.3
Corners
3.6
51%
Poss.
52%
Percentages
60%
O 1.5
27%
40%
O 2.5
7%
40%
BTTS
20%
33%
Clean Sht
53%
ℹ Based on the last 15 matches in Liga Profesional. Bars use fixed scales (goals max 3.5, percentages 0–100%).

Venue Form

Goals signal (venue avg)
10%
O 3.5
30%
BTTS
Independiente
5W 2D 3L · at home
San Lorenzo
1W 6D 3L · away
1.4
gls/g
0.4
1.1
Conceded
0.6
50%
Win %
10%
70%
Win or Draw
70%
60%
O 1.5
30%
40%
O 2.5
0%
20%
O 3.5
0%
30%
BTTS
30%
50%
Clean Sht
40%
30%
Failed to Score
60%
last 10
ℹ Home team's record in home matches only · Away team's record in away matches only.

Score Matrix

↕ Independiente San Lorenzo →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0 16.1% 10.3% 3.3% 0.7% 0.1% —
1 19.1% 12.2% 3.9% 0.8% 0.1% —
2 11.3% 7.3% 2.3% 0.5% 0.1% —
3 4.5% 2.9% 0.9% 0.2% — —
4 1.3% 0.8% 0.3% 0.1% — —
5 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% — — —

Recent form

Independiente Independiente
W Central Cordoba de Santiago 0–1
L Gimnasia M. 0–3
D Independ. Rivadavia 0–0
W Lanus 1–3
L Platense 0–1
Home clean sheet (120 days) 36%
San Lorenzo San Lorenzo
W Talleres Cordoba 1–0
L Instituto Cordoba 1–0
D Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto 0–0
W Union Santa Fe 1–0
L Huracan 0–2
Away clean sheet (120 days) 24%

Playing profile

Independiente Independiente
Attack
29
Defence
73
Form
53
San Lorenzo San Lorenzo
Attack
23
Defence
71
Form
47
Indices on a 0–100 scale calculated by the model

Head-to-Head

1
Independiente
0
Draw
0
San Lorenzo
2 May 2026 Liga Profesional 2–1

Apertura, Group A

# Team G Pts
1 Estudiantes L.P. Estudiantes L.P. 16 31
2 Boca Juniors Boca Juniors 16 30
3 Velez Sarsfield Velez Sarsfield 16 28
4 Talleres Cordoba Talleres Cordoba 16 26
5 Independiente Independiente 16 24
6 Lanus Lanus 16 24
7 San Lorenzo San Lorenzo 16 22
8 Union Santa Fe Union Santa Fe 16 21
9 Instituto Cordoba Instituto Cordoba 16 21
10 Defensa Y Justicia Defensa Y Justicia 16 19
11 Gimnasia M. Gimnasia M. 16 19
12 Platense Platense 16 16
13 Central Cordoba de Santiago Central Cordoba de Santiago 16 16
14 Newells Old Boys Newells Old Boys 16 15
15 Deportivo Riestra Deportivo Riestra 16 11

What's at stake · Apertura, Group A

Top 2 advance to the next round

Independiente San Lorenzo
Current #5 #1
→ Independiente #4 #7
→ Draw #5 #7
→ San Lorenzo #6 #5

Projected ranking after this match only. Goal difference tiebreakers not applied.

Frequently Asked Questions
Who will win Independiente vs San Lorenzo?
The model gives Independiente a 49% win probability, 29% for a draw, and 20% for an San Lorenzo win.
How many goals are expected in Independiente vs San Lorenzo?
Expected goals: Independiente 1.2, San Lorenzo 0.6 (total 1.8). Probability of over 1.5 goals: 58%.
What is the most likely score in Independiente vs San Lorenzo?
1–0 is the most probable final score, with an estimated probability of 19.69%.