Italy - Belgium
Weather at kick-off
⛅
Partly cloudy
26.8°C
💨 18 km/h
🌧️ 58%
· Niigata
⚡ Pre-match analysis
52.69%
Win
Italy
17.63%
Draw
29.68%
Win
Belgium
2.89
2.17
Expected xG
Market probabilities
Most likely result
2–2
(6.32%)
1X2 Result
1
53%
X
18%
2
30%
Double Chance
1X
70%
X2
47%
12
82%
Over / Under
Over 1.5
94%
Over 2.5
85%
The ForzaPitch prediction gives Italy a 52% win probability, against 17% for a draw and 29% for Belgium. Expected goals are 2.9 for Italy and 2.2 for Belgium (total 5.1), with a 94% probability of Over 1.5 goals. The most likely scoreline is 2–2 at 6.32% probability. In 2 previous meetings, Italy have won 1 times, with 1 draws and 0 wins for Belgium.
Season Stats
4W
2D
2L
2W
1D
5L
Averages per game
2.1
Goals
1.2
1.6
Conceded
1.5
5.0
Shots OT
5.0
4.0
Corners
7.6
50%
Poss.
58%
Percentages
88%
O 1.5
75%
88%
O 2.5
63%
88%
BTTS
50%
13%
Clean Sht
13%
ℹ
Based on the last 8 matches in UEFA Nations League. Bars use fixed scales (goals max 3.5, percentages 0–100%).
Venue Form
Goals signal (venue avg)
63%
O 3.5
75%
BTTS
1W
1D
2L
· at home
0W
1D
3L
· away
2.0
gls/g
0.8
2.0
Conceded
2.0
25%
Win %
0%
50%
Win or Draw
25%
100%
O 1.5
75%
100%
O 2.5
50%
75%
O 3.5
50%
100%
BTTS
50%
0%
Clean Sht
0%
0%
Failed to Score
50%
last 4
ℹ
Home team's record in home matches only · Away team's record in away matches only.
Score Matrix
↕ Italy
Belgium →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.6% | 1.4% | 1.5% | 1.1% | 0.6% | 0.3% |
| 1 | 1.8% | 4.0% | 4.3% | 3.1% | 1.7% | 0.7% |
| 2 | 2.7% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 4.5% | 2.4% | 1.1% |
| 3 | 2.6% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 4.3% | 2.4% | 1.0% |
| 4 | 1.8% | 4.0% | 4.3% | 3.1% | 1.7% | 0.7% |
| 5 | 1.1% | 2.3% | 2.5% | 1.8% | 1.0% | 0.4% |
Recent form
Playing profile
Italy
Attack
42
Defence
81
Form
58
Belgium
Attack
57
Defence
71
Form
51
Indices on a 0–100 scale calculated by the model
Head-to-Head
Unavailable
Belgium
Injured
Injured
Injured
Injured
UEFA Nations League , League A, Group 1
What's at stake · UEFA Nations League , League A, Group 1
Top 2 advance to the next round
| Current | #2 | #3 |
| → Italy | #1 | #3 |
| → Draw | #1 | #2 |
| → Belgium | #3 | #1 |
Projected ranking after this match only. Goal difference tiebreakers not applied.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who will win Italy vs Belgium?
The model gives Italy a 52% win probability, 17% for a draw, and 29% for an Belgium win.
How many goals are expected in Italy vs Belgium?
Expected goals: Italy 2.9, Belgium 2.2 (total 5.1). Probability of over 1.5 goals: 94%.
What is the most likely score in Italy vs Belgium?
2–2 is the most probable final score, with an estimated probability of 6.32%.