Italy - Türkiye
⚡ Pre-match analysis
57.72%
Win
Italy
17.65%
Draw
24.64%
Win
Türkiye
2.77
1.77
Expected xG
Most likely outcome
Italy
57.72%
Probability
100.0%
1X2 accuracy · 2 predictions (3 months)
Market probabilities
Most likely result
2–1
(7.31%)
1X2 Result
1
58%
X
18%
2
25%
Double Chance
1X
75%
X2
42%
12
82%
Over / Under
Over 1.5
93%
Over 2.5
84%
The ForzaPitch prediction gives Italy a 57% win probability, against 17% for a draw and 24% for Türkiye. Expected goals are 2.8 for Italy and 1.8 for Türkiye (total 4.5), with a 93% probability of Over 1.5 goals. The most likely scoreline is 2–1 at 7.31% probability.
Season Stats
4W
2D
2L
5W
2D
1L
Averages per game
2.1
Goals
1.9
1.6
Conceded
0.9
5.0
Shots OT
5.6
4.0
Corners
4.9
50%
Poss.
58%
Percentages
88%
O 1.5
63%
88%
O 2.5
63%
88%
BTTS
50%
13%
Clean Sht
50%
ℹ
Based on the last 8 matches in UEFA Nations League. Bars use fixed scales (goals max 3.5, percentages 0–100%).
Venue Form
Goals signal (venue avg)
63%
O 3.5
75%
BTTS
1W
1D
2L
· at home
2W
1D
1L
· away
2.0
gls/g
2.0
2.0
Conceded
1.2
25%
Win %
50%
50%
Win or Draw
75%
100%
O 1.5
75%
100%
O 2.5
75%
75%
O 3.5
50%
100%
BTTS
50%
0%
Clean Sht
50%
0%
Failed to Score
25%
last 4
ℹ
Home team's record in home matches only · Away team's record in away matches only.
Score Matrix
↕ Italy
Türkiye →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.1% | 1.9% | 1.7% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.2% |
| 1 | 3.0% | 5.2% | 4.6% | 2.7% | 1.2% | 0.4% |
| 2 | 4.1% | 7.2% | 6.4% | 3.8% | 1.7% | 0.6% |
| 3 | 3.8% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 3.5% | 1.5% | 0.5% |
| 4 | 2.6% | 4.6% | 4.1% | 2.4% | 1.1% | 0.4% |
| 5 | 1.5% | 2.6% | 2.3% | 1.3% | 0.6% | 0.2% |
Recent form
Playing profile
Italy
Attack
42
Defence
81
Form
58
Türkiye
Attack
51
Defence
73
Form
29
Indices on a 0–100 scale calculated by the model
UEFA Nations League , League A, Group 1
What's at stake · UEFA Nations League , League A, Group 1
Top 2 advance to the next round
| Current | #2 | #1 |
| → Italy | #1 | #4 |
| → Draw | #1 | #2 |
| → Türkiye | #3 | #1 |
Projected ranking after this match only. Goal difference tiebreakers not applied.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who will win Italy vs Türkiye?
The model gives Italy a 57% win probability, 17% for a draw, and 24% for an Türkiye win.
How many goals are expected in Italy vs Türkiye?
Expected goals: Italy 2.8, Türkiye 1.8 (total 4.5). Probability of over 1.5 goals: 93%.
What is the most likely score in Italy vs Türkiye?
2–1 is the most probable final score, with an estimated probability of 7.31%.