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Jagiellonia - Ararat-Armenia

Europa League October 15, 2026 21:00
Jagiellonia
#15 · 0 pts
vs
Ararat-Armenia
#2 · 0 pts
⚡ Pre-match analysis
58.88%
Win
Jagiellonia
21.88%
Draw
19.24%
Win
Ararat-Armenia
1.79
Expected xG
0.88
Most likely outcome
Jagiellonia
58.88%
Probability
50.0%
1X2 accuracy · 10 predictions (3 months)

Market probabilities

Most likely result 1–0 (12.89%)
1X2 Result
1 59%
X 22%
2 19%
Double Chance ✓ 100.0% hit rate (10 picks)
1X 81%
X2 41%
12 78%
Over / Under
Over 1.5 82%
Over 2.5 66%
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The ForzaPitch prediction gives Jagiellonia a 58% win probability, against 21% for a draw and 19% for Ararat-Armenia. Expected goals are 1.8 for Jagiellonia and 0.9 for Ararat-Armenia (total 2.7), with a 81% probability of Over 1.5 goals. The most likely scoreline is 1–0 at 12.89% probability.

Season Stats

Jagiellonia
3W 1D 0L
Ararat-Armenia
1W 1D 0L
Averages per game
2.2
Goals
1.0
0.8
Conceded
0.5
5.7
Shots OT
1.0
2.0
Corners
1.5
47%
Poss.
23%
Percentages
100%
O 1.5
50%
75%
O 2.5
0%
75%
BTTS
50%
25%
Clean Sht
50%
ℹ Based on the last 4 matches in Europa League. Bars use fixed scales (goals max 3.5, percentages 0–100%).

Venue Form

Goals signal (venue avg)
25%
O 3.5
75%
BTTS
Jagiellonia
2W 0D 0L · at home
Ararat-Armenia
0W 1D 0L · away
3.0
gls/g
1.0
0.5
Conceded
1.0
100%
Win %
0%
100%
Win or Draw
100%
100%
O 1.5
100%
100%
O 2.5
0%
50%
O 3.5
0%
50%
BTTS
100%
50%
Clean Sht
0%
0%
Failed to Score
0%
last 2
ℹ Home team's record in home matches only · Away team's record in away matches only.

Score Matrix

↕ Jagiellonia Ararat-Armenia →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0 6.9% 6.1% 2.7% 0.8% 0.2% —
1 12.3% 10.9% 4.8% 1.4% 0.3% 0.1%
2 11.1% 9.8% 4.3% 1.3% 0.3% —
3 6.6% 5.8% 2.6% 0.8% 0.2% —
4 3.0% 2.6% 1.2% 0.3% 0.1% —
5 1.1% 0.9% 0.4% 0.1% — —

Recent form

Jagiellonia Jagiellonia
W FC Iberia 1999 1–2
W FC Iberia 1999 4–0
D Rangers 1–1
W Rangers 2–1
Home clean sheet (120 days) 44%
Ararat-Armenia Ararat-Armenia
W Universitatea Craiova 1–0
D Universitatea Craiova 1–1
Away clean sheet (120 days) 20%

Playing profile

Jagiellonia Jagiellonia
Attack
42
Defence
59
Form
49
Ararat-Armenia Ararat-Armenia
Attack
32
Defence
78
Form
63
Indices on a 0–100 scale calculated by the model

League Table

# Team G Pts
1 Anderlecht Anderlecht 0 0
2 Ararat-Armenia Ararat-Armenia 0 0
3 AZ Alkmaar AZ Alkmaar 0 0
4 Benfica Benfica 0 0
5 Beşiktaş Beşiktaş 0 0
6 Bournemouth Bournemouth 0 0
7 Celje Celje 0 0
8 Celta Vigo Celta Vigo 0 0
9 Celtic Celtic 0 0
10 Crystal Palace Crystal Palace 0 0
11 Ferencvarosi TC Ferencvarosi TC 0 0
12 Dinamo Zagreb Dinamo Zagreb 0 0
13 Hapoel Beer Sheva Hapoel Beer Sheva 0 0
14 1899 Hoffenheim 1899 Hoffenheim 0 0
15 Jagiellonia Jagiellonia 0 0
16 Juventus Juventus 0 0
17 Lech Poznan Lech Poznan 0 0
18 Bayer Leverkusen Bayer Leverkusen 0 0
19 Levski Sofia Levski Sofia 0 0
20 Lillestrom Lillestrom 0 0
21 Lyon Lyon 0 0
22 Marseille Marseille 0 0
23 AC Milan AC Milan 0 0
24 NEC Nijmegen NEC Nijmegen 0 0
25 OFI OFI 0 0
26 Olympiakos Piraeus Olympiakos Piraeus 0 0
27 Omonia Nicosia Omonia Nicosia 0 0
28 Real Sociedad Real Sociedad 0 0
29 Rennes Rennes 0 0
30 Red Bull Salzburg Red Bull Salzburg 0 0
31 Sparta Praha Sparta Praha 0 0
32 Sturm Graz Sturm Graz 0 0
33 Sunderland Sunderland 0 0
34 Torreense Torreense 0 0
35 Union St. Gilloise Union St. Gilloise 0 0
36 Plzen Plzen 0 0
Frequently Asked Questions
Who will win Jagiellonia vs Ararat-Armenia?
The model gives Jagiellonia a 58% win probability, 21% for a draw, and 19% for an Ararat-Armenia win.
How many goals are expected in Jagiellonia vs Ararat-Armenia?
Expected goals: Jagiellonia 1.8, Ararat-Armenia 0.9 (total 2.7). Probability of over 1.5 goals: 81%.
What is the most likely score in Jagiellonia vs Ararat-Armenia?
1–0 is the most probable final score, with an estimated probability of 12.89%.