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Japan - Uruguay

Friendlies Internazionali September 24, 2026 12:05
Japan
vs
Uruguay
⚡ Pre-match analysis
38.68%
Win
Japan
30.99%
Draw
30.33%
Win
Uruguay
1.59
Expected xG
0.88

Market probabilities

Most likely result 1–0 (11.93%)
1X2 Result
1 39%
X 31%
2 30%
Double Chance
1X 70%
X2 61%
12 69%
Over / Under
Over 1.5 75%
Over 2.5 52%
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The ForzaPitch prediction gives Japan a 38% win probability, against 30% for a draw and 30% for Uruguay. Expected goals are 1.6 for Japan and 0.9 for Uruguay (total 2.5), with a 74% probability of Over 1.5 goals. The most likely scoreline is 1–0 at 11.93% probability.

Season Stats

Japan
3W 0D 0L
Uruguay
0W 2D 0L
Averages per game
1.0
Goals
0.5
0.0
Conceded
0.5
5.3
Shots OT
1.0
4.7
Corners
3.0
47%
Poss.
53%
Percentages
0%
O 1.5
50%
0%
O 2.5
0%
0%
BTTS
50%
100%
Clean Sht
50%
ℹ Based on the last 3 matches in Friendlies Internazionali. Bars use fixed scales (goals max 3.5, percentages 0–100%).

Venue Form

Goals signal (venue avg)
0%
O 3.5
25%
BTTS
Japan
1W 0D 0L · at home
Uruguay
0W 2D 0L · away
1.0
gls/g
0.5
0.0
Conceded
0.5
100%
Win %
0%
100%
Win or Draw
100%
0%
O 1.5
50%
0%
O 2.5
0%
0%
O 3.5
0%
0%
BTTS
50%
100%
Clean Sht
50%
0%
Failed to Score
50%
last 2
ℹ Home team's record in home matches only · Away team's record in away matches only.

Score Matrix

↕ Japan Uruguay →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0 8.5% 7.4% 3.3% 1.0% 0.2% —
1 13.5% 11.8% 5.2% 1.5% 0.3% 0.1%
2 10.7% 9.4% 4.1% 1.2% 0.3% —
3 5.7% 5.0% 2.2% 0.6% 0.1% —
4 2.3% 2.0% 0.9% 0.3% 0.1% —
5 0.7% 0.6% 0.3% 0.1% — —

Recent form

Japan Japan
W Iceland 1–0
W England 0–1
W Scotland 0–1
Home clean sheet (120 days) 33%
Uruguay Uruguay
D Algeria 0–0
D England 1–1
Away clean sheet (120 days) 23%

Playing profile

Japan Japan
Attack
42
Defence
84
Form
75
Uruguay Uruguay
Attack
11
Defence
81
Form
49
Indices on a 0–100 scale calculated by the model

Unavailable

Japan
S. Machino
S. Machino
Injured
T. Kubo
T. Kubo
Injured
Uruguay
G. de Arrascaeta
G. de Arrascaeta
Injured
R. Araújo
R. Araújo
Injured
Frequently Asked Questions
Who will win Japan vs Uruguay?
The model gives Japan a 38% win probability, 30% for a draw, and 30% for an Uruguay win.
How many goals are expected in Japan vs Uruguay?
Expected goals: Japan 1.6, Uruguay 0.9 (total 2.5). Probability of over 1.5 goals: 74%.
What is the most likely score in Japan vs Uruguay?
1–0 is the most probable final score, with an estimated probability of 11.93%.