Copa Libertadores
· Group Stage - 1
April 09, 2026 02:30
T. Gutierrez
10'
(pen.)
56'
(ast. J. Lopez)
R. Sosa
The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Junior a 35% win probability (draw 31%, Palmeiras 33%). The final result was Junior 1–1 Palmeiras. In 1 previous meetings, Junior have won 0 times, with 0 draws and 1 wins for Palmeiras.
Match statistics
6
Total shots
13
3
Shots on target
5
1.16
Actual xG
1.75
4
Saves
2
43%
Possession
57%
2
Corners
11
14
Tackles
18
3
🟨 Yellow cards
1
Match Events
⚽T. Gutierrez
(pen.)
10'
K. Perez
14'
T. Gutierrez
42'
44'
Arthur Gabriel
46'
Khellven
/
Arthur Gabriel
46'
R. Sosa
/
Mauricio
56'
ast. J. Lopez ·
R. Sosa⚽
K. Perez
/ G. Celis
57'
T. Gutierrez
/ G. Paiva
58'
70'
Lucas Evangelista
/
Andreas Pereira
70'
Felipe Anderson
/
Allan Elias
Y. Chara
/ L. Muriel
71'
J. Rivas
/ J. Canchimbo
71'
83'
Luighi
/
J. Lopez
G. Paiva
83'
J. Guerrero
/ E. Herrera
87'
Pre-match prediction
35.1%
Junior
31.19%
X ←
33.71%
Palmeiras
we assigned to the actual result (Draw)
31.19%
(low confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
1.05
1.16
+0.11
1.03
1.75
+0.72
Palmeiras dominated by xG (1.75 vs 1.16).
The final result does not reflect the playing dominance.
The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
Lineups
1
M. Silveira
G
M. Silveira
G
33
D
5
D. Rivera
D
D. Rivera
D
98
Jermein Peña
D
Jermein Peña
D
26
Y. Súarez
M
Y. Súarez
M
22
Jesús Rivas
71'
M
Jesús Rivas
71'
M
14
J. Ríos
M
J. Ríos
M
34
Jhonier Guerrero
87'
M
Jhonier Guerrero
87'
M
18
K. Pérez
57'
F
K. Pérez
57'
F
8
Y. Chará
71'
F
Y. Chará
71'
F
29
T. Gutiérrez
1 ⚽
58'
F
T. Gutiérrez
1 ⚽
58'
F
Bench
88
B. Castrillón
F
B. Castrillón
F
70
C. Bacca
F
C. Bacca
F
9
G. Paiva
38'
F
G. Paiva
38'
F
7
H. Rivera
M
H. Rivera
M
24
Jean Carlos Pestaña
D
Jean Carlos Pestaña
D
30
J. Martínez
G
J. Martínez
G
21
Joel Canchimbo
25'
F
Joel Canchimbo
25'
F
20
J. Sarmiento
M
J. Sarmiento
M
10
L. Muriel
25'
F
L. Muriel
25'
F
1
Carlos Miguel
G
Carlos Miguel
G
56
Arthur
45'
D
Arthur
45'
D
26
Murilo
D
Murilo
D
15
G. Gómez
D
G. Gómez
D
4
Agustín Giay
D
Agustín Giay
D
17
Marlon Freitas
M
Marlon Freitas
M
8
Andreas Pereira
70'
M
Andreas Pereira
70'
M
11
J. Arias
M
J. Arias
M
18
Mauricio
45'
M
Mauricio
45'
M
40
Allan
70'
M
Allan
70'
M
42
J. López
1 👟
83'
F
J. López
1 👟
83'
F
Bench
7
Felipe Anderson
26'
M
Felipe Anderson
26'
M
12
Khellven
51'
D
Khellven
51'
D
30
Lucas Evangelista
26'
M
Lucas Evangelista
26'
M
31
Luighi Hanri
13'
F
Luighi Hanri
13'
F
50
Luis Felipe
M
Luis Felipe
M
19
Ramón Sosa
1 ⚽
51'
F
Ramón Sosa
1 ⚽
51'
F
Best on the pitch
Ramón Sosa
F · Palmeiras
8.70
1 ⚽
1 shots
· 17 pass
D. Rivera
D · Junior
7.70
· 24 pass
M. Silveira
G · Junior
7.30
· 24 pass
Murilo
D · Palmeiras
7.20
· 48 pass
Carlos Miguel
G · Palmeiras
7.20
· 10 pass
Jesús Rivas
M · Junior
7.00
1 shots
· 36 pass
Junior — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Silveira | G | 96 | 7.30 | — | — | — | 24 | 12% | — | — | — |
| D | 96 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 15 | 12% | 2 | — | — | |
| D. Rivera | D | 96 | 7.70 | — | — | — | 24 | 21% | 3 | — | — |
| Jermein Peña | D | 96 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 22 | 17% | 2 | — | — |
| Y. Súarez | M | 96 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 35 | 24% | 1 | — | — |
| Jesús Rivas | M | 71 | 7.00 | — | — | 1 | 36 | 31% | — | — | — |
| J. Ríos | M | 96 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 25 | 23% | 1 | — | — |
| Jhonier Guerrero | M | 87 | 6.90 | — | — | 2 | 22 | 17% | 2 | — | — |
| K. Pérez | F | 57 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 30 | 28% | 1 | 1 | — |
| Y. Chará | F | 71 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 28 | 27% | 1 | — | — |
| T. Gutiérrez | F | 58 | 6.60 | 1 | — | 1 | 29 | 22% | — | 1 | — |
| G. Paiva | F | 38 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 11 | 7% | — | 1 | — |
| Joel Canchimbo | F | 25 | 6.60 | — | — | 1 | 1 | 1% | — | — | — |
| L. Muriel | F | 25 | 6.30 | — | — | 1 | 4 | 4% | 1 | — | — |
Palmeiras — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carlos Miguel | G | 96 | 7.20 | — | — | — | 10 | 7% | — | — | — |
| Arthur | D | 45 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 31 | 23% | 2 | 1 | — |
| Murilo | D | 96 | 7.20 | — | — | — | 48 | 45% | 1 | — | — |
| G. Gómez | D | 96 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 38 | 29% | — | — | — |
| Agustín Giay | D | 96 | 6.20 | — | — | 1 | 34 | 27% | 3 | — | — |
| Marlon Freitas | M | 96 | 6.60 | — | — | 1 | 61 | 53% | — | — | — |
| Andreas Pereira | M | 70 | 6.70 | — | — | 1 | 25 | 23% | — | — | — |
| J. Arias | M | 96 | 7.00 | — | — | 1 | 48 | 46% | 2 | — | — |
| Mauricio | M | 45 | 5.60 | — | — | — | 14 | 13% | 1 | — | — |
| Allan | M | 70 | 6.90 | — | — | 1 | 14 | 13% | 2 | — | — |
| J. López | F | 83 | 6.90 | — | 1 | — | 17 | 12% | 3 | — | — |
| Felipe Anderson | M | 26 | 6.60 | — | — | 3 | 8 | 7% | 4 | — | — |
| Khellven | D | 51 | 6.90 | — | — | 2 | 28 | 25% | — | — | — |
| Lucas Evangelista | M | 26 | 6.90 | — | — | 1 | 9 | 8% | — | — | — |
| Luighi Hanri | F | 13 | 6.50 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Ramón Sosa | F | 51 | 8.70 | 1 | — | 1 | 17 | 15% | — | — | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Junior vs Palmeiras?
The final score was Junior 1–1 Palmeiras.
What did the model predict before Junior vs Palmeiras?
The model assigned 35% probability to a Junior win, 31% to a draw, and 33% to an Palmeiras win.