Copa Libertadores
· Group Stage - 5
May 21, 2026 04:00
L. Muriel
9'
K. Perez
(ast. J. Rivas)
28'
L. Muriel
(ast. E. Herrera)
36'
45'+5
(ast. A. J. Posito Olazabal)
Y. Yotun
56'
G. Cazonatti
The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Junior a 48% win probability (draw 27%, Sporting Cristal 23%). The final result was Junior 3–2 Sporting Cristal. In 1 previous meetings, Junior have won 0 times, with 0 draws and 1 wins for Sporting Cristal.
Match statistics
14
Total shots
15
8
Shots on target
5
1.92
Actual xG
1.19
3
Saves
5
50%
Possession
50%
4
Corners
6
6
Tackles
19
2
🟨 Yellow cards
0
Match Events
⚽L. Muriel
9'
⚽K. Perez
· ast. J. Rivas
28'
⚽L. Muriel
· ast. E. Herrera
36'
45'+5
ast. A. J. Posito Olazabal ·
Y. Yotun⚽
46'
Cristiano
/
A. J. Posito Olazabal
46'
Gabriel
/
L. Sosa
46'
F. Vizeu
/
I. Avila
J. Rivas
/ F. S. Angel Bernal
55'
J. Canchimbo
/ C. Barrios
55'
56'
G. Cazonatti⚽
H. Rivera
/ J. Sarmiento
63'
L. Muriel
/ T. Gutierrez
63'
J. Sarmiento
66'
J. Navia
/ Y. Suarez
71'
73'
C. Cabellos
/
G. Cazonatti
84'
M. Rodriguez
/
M. Tavara
Y. Suarez
85'
90'+7
Cristiano
Pre-match prediction
48.15%
Junior ←
27.93%
X
23.92%
Sporting
we assigned to the actual result (Junior)
48.15%
(medium confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
1.25
1.92
+0.67
0.78
1.19
+0.41
Junior dominated by xG (1.92 vs 1.19).
The final result reflects the playing dominance.
The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
Lineups
30
Jefersson Martínez
G
Jefersson Martínez
G
27
Jhon Navia
71'
D
Jhon Navia
71'
D
5
Daniel Rivera
D
Daniel Rivera
D
24
J. Pestaña
D
J. Pestaña
D
3
E. Herrera
1 👟
D
E. Herrera
1 👟
D
22
Jesús Rivas
1 👟
55'
M
Jesús Rivas
1 👟
55'
M
7
Harold Rivera
63'
M
Harold Rivera
63'
M
18
Kevin Pérez
1 ⚽
M
Kevin Pérez
1 ⚽
M
8
Yimmi Chará
M
Yimmi Chará
M
21
Joel Canchimbo
55'
M
Joel Canchimbo
55'
M
10
L. Muriel
2 ⚽
63'
F
L. Muriel
2 ⚽
63'
F
Bench
38
Andrés Schmalbach
M
Andrés Schmalbach
M
88
Bryan Castrillón
F
Bryan Castrillón
F
70
Carlos Bacca
F
Carlos Bacca
F
77
Cristian Barrios
42'
F
Cristian Barrios
42'
F
80
Fabián Ángel
42'
M
Fabián Ángel
42'
M
9
G. Paiva
F
G. Paiva
F
34
Jhonier Guerrero
D
Jhonier Guerrero
D
14
J. Ríos
M
J. Ríos
M
20
J. Sarmiento
34'
M
J. Sarmiento
34'
M
1
Mauro Silveira
G
Mauro Silveira
G
29
T. Gutiérrez
34'
F
T. Gutiérrez
34'
F
26
Yeison Suárez
26'
D
Yeison Suárez
26'
D
1
D. Enríquez
G
D. Enríquez
G
5
R. Lutiger
D
R. Lutiger
D
96
L. Abram
D
L. Abram
D
15
A. Pósito
1 👟
45'
D
A. Pósito
1 👟
45'
D
8
L. Sosa
45'
D
L. Sosa
45'
D
25
G. Távara
84'
M
G. Távara
84'
M
55
Gustavo Cazonatti
1 ⚽
73'
M
Gustavo Cazonatti
1 ⚽
73'
M
18
J. González
M
J. González
M
19
Y. Yotún
1 ⚽
M
Y. Yotún
1 ⚽
M
23
M. Castro
M
M. Castro
M
11
I. Ávila
45'
F
I. Ávila
45'
F
Bench
34
Carlos Del Valle
M
Carlos Del Valle
M
33
C. Bautista
G
C. Bautista
G
21
C. Cabellos
24'
M
C. Cabellos
24'
M
90
Cris Silva
52'
D
Cris Silva
52'
D
14
Cristian Benavente
F
Cristian Benavente
F
28
D. Otoya
F
9
Felipe Vizeu
52'
F
Felipe Vizeu
52'
F
27
Gabriel
52'
M
Gabriel
52'
M
26
I. Wisdom
M
I. Wisdom
M
41
Joao Cuenca
D
Joao Cuenca
D
32
L. Díaz
D
L. Díaz
D
97
M. RodrÃguez
13'
F
M. RodrÃguez
13'
F
Best on the pitch
L. Muriel
F · Junior
8.50
2 ⚽
3 shots
· 18 pass
Gustavo Cazonatti
M · Sporting
7.90
1 ⚽
2 shots
· 32 pass
Y. Yotún
M · Sporting
7.70
1 ⚽
3 shots
· 48 pass
G. Távara
M · Sporting
7.50
1 shots
· 30 pass
J. González
M · Sporting
7.20
2 shots
· 37 pass
Kevin Pérez
M · Junior
7.20
1 ⚽
2 shots
· 39 pass
Junior — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jefersson Martínez | G | 97 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 27 | 13% | — | — | — |
| Jhon Navia | D | 71 | 6.20 | — | — | 1 | 32 | 28% | 1 | — | — |
| Daniel Rivera | D | 97 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 33 | 30% | 2 | — | — |
| J. Pestaña | D | 97 | 5.90 | — | — | — | 42 | 36% | — | — | — |
| E. Herrera | D | 97 | 6.50 | — | 1 | — | 52 | 48% | — | — | — |
| Jesús Rivas | M | 55 | 6.70 | — | 1 | 1 | 26 | 22% | — | — | — |
| Harold Rivera | M | 63 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 38 | 32% | — | — | — |
| Kevin Pérez | M | 97 | 7.20 | 1 | — | 2 | 39 | 33% | — | — | — |
| Yimmi Chará | M | 97 | 7.20 | — | — | 1 | 50 | 48% | 1 | — | — |
| Joel Canchimbo | M | 55 | 6.90 | — | — | 3 | 17 | 15% | 1 | — | — |
| L. Muriel | F | 63 | 8.50 | 2 | — | 3 | 18 | 13% | — | — | — |
| Cristian Barrios | F | 42 | 6.30 | — | — | 1 | 6 | 4% | — | — | — |
| Fabián Ángel | M | 42 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 11 | 8% | 1 | — | — |
| J. Sarmiento | M | 34 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 9 | 6% | — | 1 | — |
| T. Gutiérrez | F | 34 | 6.30 | — | — | 2 | 17 | 12% | — | — | — |
| Yeison Suárez | D | 26 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 7 | 7% | — | 1 | — |
Sporting Cristal — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D. Enríquez | G | 97 | 7.20 | — | — | — | 25 | 23% | — | — | — |
| R. Lutiger | D | 97 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 39 | 36% | 2 | — | — |
| L. Abram | D | 97 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 54 | 49% | 1 | — | — |
| A. Pósito | D | 45 | 6.00 | — | 1 | — | 23 | 21% | 1 | — | — |
| L. Sosa | D | 45 | 5.90 | — | — | — | 18 | 14% | — | — | — |
| G. Távara | M | 84 | 7.50 | — | — | 1 | 30 | 25% | 2 | — | — |
| Gustavo Cazonatti | M | 73 | 7.90 | 1 | — | 2 | 32 | 26% | 4 | — | — |
| J. González | M | 97 | 7.20 | — | — | 2 | 37 | 29% | 4 | — | — |
| Y. Yotún | M | 97 | 7.70 | 1 | — | 3 | 48 | 40% | — | — | — |
| M. Castro | M | 97 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 21 | 16% | 1 | — | — |
| I. Ávila | F | 45 | 6.30 | — | — | 1 | 21 | 16% | 1 | — | — |
| C. Cabellos | M | 24 | 6.90 | — | — | 3 | 11 | 8% | 2 | — | — |
| Cris Silva | D | 52 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 18 | 17% | — | — | — |
| Felipe Vizeu | F | 52 | 6.90 | — | — | 2 | 10 | 7% | — | — | — |
| Gabriel | M | 52 | 6.30 | — | — | 1 | 15 | 12% | 1 | — | — |
| M. RodrÃguez | F | 13 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 2 | 2% | — | — | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Junior vs Sporting Cristal?
The final score was Junior 3–2 Sporting Cristal.
What did the model predict before Junior vs Sporting Cristal?
The model assigned 48% probability to a Junior win, 27% to a draw, and 23% to an Sporting Cristal win.