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Juventud - Danubio

Primera División September 13, 2026 18:00
Juventud
#4 · 8 pts
vs
Danubio
#8 · 4 pts
⚡ Pre-match analysis
57.63%
Win
Juventud
30.24%
Draw
12.13%
Win
Danubio
1.2
Expected xG
0.31
Most likely outcome
Juventud
57.63%
Probability
64.7%
1X2 accuracy · 17 predictions (3 months)

Market probabilities

Most likely result 1–0 (26.91%)
1X2 Result ✓ 64.7% hit rate (17 picks)
1 58%
X 30%
2 12%
Double Chance
1X 88%
X2 42%
12 70%
Over / Under
Over 1.5 61%
Over 2.5 35%
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The ForzaPitch prediction gives Juventud a 57% win probability, against 30% for a draw and 12% for Danubio. Expected goals are 1.2 for Juventud and 0.3 for Danubio (total 1.5), with a 61% probability of Over 1.5 goals. The most likely scoreline is 1–0 at 26.91% probability. In 2 previous meetings, Juventud have won 0 times, with 1 draws and 1 wins for Danubio.

Season Stats

Juventud
6W 5D 4L
Danubio
1W 6D 8L
Averages per game
1.3
Goals
0.5
1.2
Conceded
1.3
Percentages
73%
O 1.5
47%
40%
O 2.5
40%
60%
BTTS
33%
33%
Clean Sht
27%
ℹ Based on the last 15 matches in Primera División. Bars use fixed scales (goals max 3.5, percentages 0–100%).

Venue Form

Goals signal (venue avg)
25%
O 3.5
45%
BTTS
Juventud
4W 1D 5L · at home
Danubio
1W 4D 5L · away
1.2
gls/g
0.7
1.4
Conceded
1.5
40%
Win %
10%
50%
Win or Draw
50%
70%
O 1.5
60%
40%
O 2.5
50%
20%
O 3.5
30%
50%
BTTS
40%
30%
Clean Sht
20%
20%
Failed to Score
60%
last 10
ℹ Home team's record in home matches only · Away team's record in away matches only.

Score Matrix

↕ Juventud Danubio →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0 22.1% 6.9% 1.1% 0.1% — —
1 26.5% 8.2% 1.3% 0.1% — —
2 15.9% 4.9% 0.8% 0.1% — —
3 6.3% 2.0% 0.3% — — —
4 1.9% 0.6% 0.1% — — —
5 0.5% 0.1% — — — —

Recent form

Juventud Juventud
D Club Nacional 2–2
W Deportivo Maldonado 2–0
W Central Espanol 0–1
L Atletico Torque 0–1
D Cerro Largo 1–1
Home clean sheet (120 days) 33%
Danubio Danubio
L Penarol 0–4
L Progreso 1–0
D Racing Montevideo 0–0
D Boston River 0–0
L Cerro 0–1
Away clean sheet (120 days) 30%

Playing profile

Juventud Juventud
Attack
26
Defence
79
Form
53
Danubio Danubio
Attack
6
Defence
70
Form
36
Indices on a 0–100 scale calculated by the model

Head-to-Head

0
Juventud
1
Draw
1
Danubio
5 Jul 2026 Primera División 1–1
16 Mar 2026 Primera División 1–4

Primera: Clausura

# Team G Pts
1 Liverpool Montevideo Liverpool Montevideo 5 13
2 Atletico Torque Atletico Torque 4 12
3 Cerro Cerro 5 10
4 Juventud Juventud 5 8
5 Deportivo Maldonado Deportivo Maldonado 5 8
6 Racing Montevideo Racing Montevideo 5 8
7 Boston River Boston River 5 8
8 Club Nacional Club Nacional 5 7
9 Wanderers Wanderers 5 7
10 Penarol Penarol 4 6
11 Progreso Progreso 5 6
12 Cerro Largo Cerro Largo 5 4
13 Central Espanol Central Espanol 5 4
14 Danubio Danubio 5 2
15 Defensor Sporting Defensor Sporting 5 2
16 Albion FC Albion FC 5 0

What's at stake · Primera: Clausura

Top 2 advance to the next round

Juventud Danubio
Current #4 #1
→ Juventud #3 #14
→ Draw #4 #14
→ Danubio #4 #12

Projected ranking after this match only. Goal difference tiebreakers not applied.

Frequently Asked Questions
Who will win Juventud vs Danubio?
The model gives Juventud a 57% win probability, 30% for a draw, and 12% for an Danubio win.
How many goals are expected in Juventud vs Danubio?
Expected goals: Juventud 1.2, Danubio 0.3 (total 1.5). Probability of over 1.5 goals: 61%.
What is the most likely score in Juventud vs Danubio?
1–0 is the most probable final score, with an estimated probability of 26.91%.