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J1 League · Regular Season - 12 October 24, 2026 08:00 Mercari Stadium, Kashima
Kashima
#8 · 20 pts
2 – 3
Final score
Kashiwa Reysol
#4 · 25 pts
Homare Tokuda (ast. Ryoya Ogawa) 14'
Aleksandar Čavrić (ast. José Élber Pimentel da Silva) 88'
35' (ast. Sachiro Toshima) Keita Endo
45'+1 (ast. Keita Endo) Hinata Yamauchi
59' (ast. Nobuteru Nakagawa) Hinata Yamauchi
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The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Kashima a 38% win probability (draw 30%, Kashiwa Reysol 30%). The final result was Kashima 2–3 Kashiwa Reysol. In 2 previous meetings, Kashima have won 2 times, with 0 draws and 0 wins for Kashiwa Reysol.

Match statistics
24
Total shots
11
3
Shots on target
6
1.57
Actual xG
0.67
3
Saves
1
62%
Possession
38%
9
Corners
2
14
Tackles
6
0
🟨 Yellow cards
1
Match Events
⚽Homare Tokuda · ast. Ryoya Ogawa
14'
35'
ast. Sachiro Toshima · Keita Endo⚽
39'
Nobuteru Nakagawa
45'+1
ast. Keita Endo · Hinata Yamauchi⚽
↕ Homare Tokuda / Aleksandar Čavrić
45'
45'
Mao Hosoya / Yuki Kakita ↕
↕ Keisuke Tsukui / Ryuta Koike
45'
51'
Tojiro Kubo / Shusuke Furuya ↕
59'
ast. Nobuteru Nakagawa · Hinata Yamauchi⚽
60'
Kenshin Yuba / Keita Endo ↕
60'
Yusuke Segawa / Hinata Yamauchi ↕
↕ Gaku Shibasaki / Matheus Bueno
62'
↕ Haruki Hayashi / José Élber Pimentel da Silva
62'
75'
↕ Ryoya Ogawa / Minato Yoshida
78'
⚽Aleksandar Čavrić · ast. José Élber Pimentel da Silva
88'
90'
Yudai Konishi / Sachiro Toshima ↕
Pre-match prediction
38.19%
Kashima
30.84%
X
30.97%
Kashiwa ←
we assigned to the actual result (Kashiwa Reysol) 30.97% (low confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
Kashima
1.02
1.57
+0.55
Kashiwa
0.87
0.67
-0.2
Kashima dominated by xG (1.57 vs 0.67). The final result does not reflect the playing dominance. The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
League Table
#Team GPts
1 Machida Zelvia Machida Zelvia 12 27
2 FC Tokyo FC Tokyo 12 27
3 Sanfrecce Hiroshima Sanfrecce Hiroshima 12 26
4 Kashiwa Reysol Kashiwa Reysol 12 25
5 Vissel Kobe Vissel Kobe 12 23
6 Kawasaki Frontale Kawasaki Frontale 12 22
7 Urawa Urawa 12 21
8 Kashima Kashima 12 20
9 Yokohama F. Marinos Yokohama F. Marinos 12 18
10 Fagiano Okayama Fagiano Okayama 12 16
11 Nagoya Grampus Nagoya Grampus 12 14
12 Cerezo Osaka Cerezo Osaka 12 14
13 Shimizu S-pulse Shimizu S-pulse 12 14
14 V-varen Nagasaki V-varen Nagasaki 12 12
15 Gamba Osaka Gamba Osaka 12 11
16 Kyoto Sanga Kyoto Sanga 12 10
17 Mito Hollyhock Mito Hollyhock 12 9
18 Tokyo Verdy Tokyo Verdy 12 8
19 Avispa Fukuoka Avispa Fukuoka 12 7
20 JEF United Chiba JEF United Chiba 12 7
Lineups
Kashima Kashima 4-4-2
1 T. Hayakawa T. Hayakawa G 5.68
7 R. Ogawa R. Ogawa 1 👟 78' D 6.88
3 Kim Tae-Hyeon Kim Tae-Hyeon D 6.25
55 N. Ueda N. Ueda D 6.66
23 K. Tsukui K. Tsukui 45' D 6.09
24 H. Hayashu H. Hayashu 62' M 6.30
6 K. Misao K. Misao M 6.02
10 G. Shibasaki G. Shibasaki 62' M 6.21
27 Y. Matsumura Y. Matsumura M 6.32
40 Y. Suzuki Y. Suzuki F 6.81
34 H. Tokuda H. Tokuda 1 ⚽ 45' F 7.67
Bench
77 A. Čavrić A. Čavrić 1 ⚽ 45' F 7.27
35 A. Motosuna A. Motosuna D 0.00
17 Élber Élber 1 👟 28' F 6.67
5 I. Sekigawa I. Sekigawa D 0.00
8 Matheus Bueno Matheus Bueno 28' M 6.76
30 M. Yoshida M. Yoshida 12' F 6.51
25 R. Koike R. Koike 45' D 6.14
21 T. Yamada T. Yamada G 0.00
14 Y. Higuchi Y. Higuchi M 0.00
Kashiwa Reysol Kashiwa Reysol 3-4-2-1
29 K. Nagai K. Nagai G 5.88
26 D. Sugioka D. Sugioka D 6.25
4 T. Koga T. Koga D 5.84
42 W. Harada W. Harada D 6.83
5 K. Endo K. Endo 1 ⚽ 1 👟 60' M 7.66
28 S. Toshima S. Toshima 1 👟 89' M 6.47
39 N. Nakagawa N. Nakagawa 1 👟 M 6.65
30
51' M 6.11
87 H. Yamauchi H. Yamauchi 2 ⚽ 60' M 8.37
8 Y. Koizumi Y. Koizumi M 6.08
18 Y. Kakita Y. Kakita 45' F 6.57
Bench
2 H. Mitsumaru H. Mitsumaru D 0.00
1 H. Saruta H. Saruta G 0.00
44 K. Yuba K. Yuba 30' M 5.90
9 M. Hosoya M. Hosoya 45' F 6.69
40 R. Harakawa R. Harakawa M 0.00
24 T. Kubo T. Kubo 39' M 6.03
21 Y. Konishi Y. Konishi 1' M 0.00
20 Y. Segawa Y. Segawa 30' M 6.22
32 Y. Yamanouchi Y. Yamanouchi D 0.00
Best on the pitch
H. Yamauchi
H. Yamauchi
M · Kashiwa
8.37
2 ⚽
2 shots · 11 pass
H. Tokuda
H. Tokuda
F · Kashima
7.67
1 ⚽
2 shots · 15 pass
K. Endo
K. Endo
M · Kashiwa
7.66
1 ⚽ 1 👟
1 shots · 17 pass
A. Čavrić
A. Čavrić
F · Kashima
7.27
1 ⚽
4 shots · 8 pass
R. Ogawa
R. Ogawa
D · Kashima
6.88
1 👟
1 shots · 50 pass
W. Harada
W. Harada
D · Kashiwa
6.83
1 shots · 57 pass
Kashima Kashima — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
T. Hayakawa G 90 5.68 — — 0 37 26% 0 — —
R. Ogawa D 78 6.88 — 1 1 50 42% 2 — —
Kim Tae-Hyeon D 90 6.25 — — 0 93 81% 0 — —
N. Ueda D 90 6.66 — — 2 72 63% 1 — —
K. Tsukui D 45 6.09 — — 0 25 21% 0 — —
H. Hayashu M 62 6.30 — — 2 44 39% 2 — —
K. Misao M 90 6.02 — — 1 55 44% 2 — —
G. Shibasaki M 62 6.21 — — 3 46 41% 1 — —
Y. Matsumura M 90 6.32 — — 1 41 32% 0 — —
Y. Suzuki F 90 6.81 — — 4 38 27% 2 — —
H. Tokuda F 45 7.67 1 — 2 15 10% 0 — —
A. Čavrić F 45 7.27 1 — 4 8 5% 1 — —
Élber F 28 6.67 — 1 2 14 11% 1 — —
Matheus Bueno M 28 6.76 — — 1 41 37% 0 — —
M. Yoshida F 12 6.51 — — 1 8 8% 1 — —
R. Koike D 45 6.14 — — 0 34 31% 1 — —
Kashiwa Reysol Kashiwa Reysol — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
K. Nagai G 90 5.88 — — 0 22 13% 0 — —
D. Sugioka D 90 6.25 — — 0 40 33% 1 — —
T. Koga D 90 5.84 — — 0 54 44% 0 — —
W. Harada D 90 6.83 — — 1 57 49% 1 — —
K. Endo M 60 7.66 1 1 1 17 13% 0 — —
S. Toshima M 89 6.47 — 1 0 42 32% 0 — —
N. Nakagawa M 90 6.65 — 1 1 48 38% 1 1 —
M 51 6.11 — — 1 11 8% 0 — —
H. Yamauchi M 60 8.37 2 — 2 11 10% 0 — —
Y. Koizumi M 90 6.08 — — 1 47 32% 1 — —
Y. Kakita F 45 6.57 — — 0 8 6% 0 — —
K. Yuba M 30 5.90 — — 1 6 4% 1 — —
M. Hosoya F 45 6.69 — — 2 7 4% 0 — —
T. Kubo M 39 6.03 — — 0 14 11% 0 — —
Y. Konishi M 1 0.00 — — 0 4 3% 0 — —
Y. Segawa M 30 6.22 — — 1 9 6% 1 — —
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Kashima vs Kashiwa Reysol?
The final score was Kashima 2–3 Kashiwa Reysol.
What did the model predict before Kashima vs Kashiwa Reysol?
The model assigned 38% probability to a Kashima win, 30% to a draw, and 30% to an Kashiwa Reysol win.