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J1 League · Regular Season - 10 October 17, 2026 08:00 Mercari Stadium, Kashima
Kashima
#8 · 20 pts
2 – 0
Final score
V-varen Nagasaki
#14 · 12 pts
Léo Ceará 2' (pen.)
Aleksandar Čavrić (ast. Haruki Hayashi) 5'
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The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Kashima a 46% win probability (draw 29%, V-varen Nagasaki 23%). The final result was Kashima 2–0 V-varen Nagasaki.

Match statistics
5
Total shots
16
3
Shots on target
4
1.30
Actual xG
1.35
3
Saves
2
49%
Possession
51%
2
Corners
6
15
Tackles
13
0
🟨 Yellow cards
3
Match Events
⚽Léo Ceará (pen.)
2'
⚽Aleksandar Čavrić · ast. Haruki Hayashi
5'
23'
Tenmu Matsumoto
43'
Jonathan Junior
↕ Sho Omori / Ryoya Ogawa
45'
54'
Kenshin Yasuda / Tenmu Matsumoto ↕
↕ José Élber Pimentel da Silva / Yuta Matsumura
55'
67'
Ryosuke Shindo / Ikki Arai ↕
67'
Ryogo Yamasaki / Jonathan Junior ↕
↕ Aleksandar Čavrić / Yuma Suzuki
72'
↕ Gaku Shibasaki / Kento Misao
72'
82'
Kenshin Yasuda
↕ Léo Ceará / Homare Tokuda
85'
85'
Hijiri Onaga / Asahi Masuyama ↕
85'
Takashi Sawada / Hotaru Yamaguchi ↕
Pre-match prediction
46.97%
Kashima ←
29.3%
X
23.74%
V-varen
we assigned to the actual result (Kashima) 46.97% (medium confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
Kashima
1.32
1.30
-0.02
V-varen
0.62
1.35
+0.73
xG dominance was balanced (1.30 – 1.35). The final result does not reflect the playing dominance. The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
League Table
#Team GPts
1 Machida Zelvia Machida Zelvia 12 27
2 FC Tokyo FC Tokyo 12 27
3 Sanfrecce Hiroshima Sanfrecce Hiroshima 12 26
4 Kashiwa Reysol Kashiwa Reysol 12 25
5 Vissel Kobe Vissel Kobe 12 23
6 Kawasaki Frontale Kawasaki Frontale 12 22
7 Urawa Urawa 12 21
8 Kashima Kashima 12 20
9 Yokohama F. Marinos Yokohama F. Marinos 12 18
10 Fagiano Okayama Fagiano Okayama 12 16
11 Nagoya Grampus Nagoya Grampus 12 14
12 Cerezo Osaka Cerezo Osaka 12 14
13 Shimizu S-pulse Shimizu S-pulse 12 14
14 V-varen Nagasaki V-varen Nagasaki 12 12
15 Gamba Osaka Gamba Osaka 12 11
16 Kyoto Sanga Kyoto Sanga 12 10
17 Mito Hollyhock Mito Hollyhock 12 9
18 Tokyo Verdy Tokyo Verdy 12 8
19 Avispa Fukuoka Avispa Fukuoka 12 7
20 JEF United Chiba JEF United Chiba 12 7
Lineups
Kashima Kashima 4-4-2
1 T. Hayakawa T. Hayakawa G 7.01
19 S. Omori S. Omori 45' D 7.08
5 I. Sekigawa I. Sekigawa D 7.31
55 N. Ueda N. Ueda D 7.26
23 K. Tsukui K. Tsukui D 7.24
17 Élber Élber 55' M 7.00
8 Matheus Bueno Matheus Bueno M 7.50
10 G. Shibasaki G. Shibasaki 72' M 7.08
24 H. Hayashu H. Hayashu 1 👟 M 7.70
77 A. Čavrić A. Čavrić 1 ⚽ 72' F 7.86
9 Léo Ceará Léo Ceará 1 ⚽ 85' F 7.42
Bench
35 A. Motosuna A. Motosuna D 0.00
34 H. Tokuda H. Tokuda 5' F 6.60
3 Kim Tae-Hyeon Kim Tae-Hyeon D 0.00
6 K. Misao K. Misao 18' M 6.75
30 M. Yoshida M. Yoshida F 0.00
7 R. Ogawa R. Ogawa 45' D 7.15
21 T. Yamada T. Yamada G 0.00
27 Y. Matsumura Y. Matsumura 35' M 6.90
40 Y. Suzuki Y. Suzuki 18' F 6.56
V-varen Nagasaki V-varen Nagasaki 3-4-2-1
1 M. Goto M. Goto G 6.35
31 K. Doi K. Doi D 6.49
29 I. Arai I. Arai 67' D 6.64
25 T. Ominami T. Ominami D 6.88
23 S. Yoneda S. Yoneda M 5.50
41 M. Hasegawa M. Hasegawa M 7.20
5 H. Yamaguchi H. Yamaguchi 85' M 6.42
88 A. Masuyama A. Masuyama 85' M 6.40
34 T. Matsumoto T. Matsumoto 54' M 6.16
10 Matheus Jesus Matheus Jesus M 6.67
99 Jonathan Jonathan 67' F 6.55
Bench
21 Diego Pituca Diego Pituca M 0.00
13 G. Hatano G. Hatano G 0.00
22 H. Onaga H. Onaga 5' M 5.96
7 K. Yasuda K. Yasuda 36' M 5.66
50 R. Shindo R. Shindo 23' D 6.12
24 R. Yamada R. Yamada M 0.00
18 R. Yamasaki R. Yamasaki 23' F 6.19
19 T. Sawada T. Sawada 5' M 5.98
8 Y. Iwasaki Y. Iwasaki F 0.00
Best on the pitch
A. Čavrić
A. Čavrić
F · Kashima
7.86
1 ⚽
1 shots · 10 pass
H. Hayashu
H. Hayashu
M · Kashima
7.70
1 👟
· 33 pass
Matheus Bueno
Matheus Bueno
M · Kashima
7.50
· 79 pass
Léo Ceará
Léo Ceará
F · Kashima
7.42
1 ⚽
1 shots · 26 pass
I. Sekigawa
I. Sekigawa
D · Kashima
7.31
· 46 pass
N. Ueda
N. Ueda
D · Kashima
7.26
· 51 pass
Kashima Kashima — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
T. Hayakawa G 90 7.01 — — 0 33 19% 0 — —
S. Omori D 45 7.08 — — 0 18 17% 1 — —
I. Sekigawa D 90 7.31 — — 0 46 39% 1 — —
N. Ueda D 90 7.26 — — 0 51 42% 0 — —
K. Tsukui D 90 7.24 — — 0 50 43% 1 — —
Élber M 55 7.00 — — 1 22 17% 1 — —
Matheus Bueno M 90 7.50 — — 0 79 76% 1 — —
G. Shibasaki M 72 7.08 — — 0 55 51% 3 — —
H. Hayashu M 90 7.70 — 1 0 33 29% 2 — —
A. Čavrić F 72 7.86 1 — 1 10 8% 0 — —
Léo Ceará F 85 7.42 1 — 1 26 23% 4 — —
H. Tokuda F 5 6.60 — — 0 2 1% 1 — —
K. Misao M 18 6.75 — — 0 10 8% 0 — —
R. Ogawa D 45 7.15 — — 1 19 15% 0 — —
Y. Matsumura M 35 6.90 — — 1 16 13% 0 — —
Y. Suzuki F 18 6.56 — — 0 4 4% 0 — —
V-varen Nagasaki V-varen Nagasaki — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
M. Goto G 90 6.35 — — 0 20 19% 0 — —
K. Doi D 90 6.49 — — 0 56 51% 0 — —
I. Arai D 67 6.64 — — 1 39 36% 0 — —
T. Ominami D 90 6.88 — — 1 61 51% 3 — —
S. Yoneda M 90 5.50 — — 0 48 32% 1 — —
M. Hasegawa M 90 7.20 — — 0 92 88% 0 — —
H. Yamaguchi M 85 6.42 — — 1 45 40% 1 — —
A. Masuyama M 85 6.40 — — 2 30 25% 0 — —
T. Matsumoto M 54 6.16 — — 1 13 10% 5 1 —
Matheus Jesus M 90 6.67 — — 4 32 26% 3 — —
Jonathan F 67 6.55 — — 4 16 11% 0 1 —
H. Onaga M 5 5.96 — — 0 2 1% 0 — —
K. Yasuda M 36 5.66 — — 2 11 9% 0 1 —
R. Shindo D 23 6.12 — — 0 18 16% 0 — —
R. Yamasaki F 23 6.19 — — 0 2 2% 0 — —
T. Sawada M 5 5.98 — — 0 3 3% 0 — —
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Kashima vs V-varen Nagasaki?
The final score was Kashima 2–0 V-varen Nagasaki.
What did the model predict before Kashima vs V-varen Nagasaki?
The model assigned 46% probability to a Kashima win, 29% to a draw, and 23% to an V-varen Nagasaki win.