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J1 League · Regular Season - 10 October 17, 2026 12:00 Sankyo Frontier Kashiwa Stadium, Kashiwa
Kashiwa Reysol
#4 · 25 pts
1 – 3
Final score
Nagoya Grampus
#11 · 14 pts
Keita Endo (ast. Shota Fujio) 23'
6' (ast. Yudai Kimura) Takuya Uchida
36' (ast. Kensuke Nagai) Yudai Kimura
79' (ast. Hidemasa Koda) Yuya Yamagishi
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The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Kashiwa Reysol a 49% win probability (draw 28%, Nagoya Grampus 22%). The final result was Kashiwa Reysol 1–3 Nagoya Grampus.

Match statistics
14
Total shots
9
2
Shots on target
4
0.95
Actual xG
1.07
1
Saves
2
59%
Possession
41%
7
Corners
2
10
Tackles
17
2
🟨 Yellow cards
0
Match Events
6'
ast. Yudai Kimura · Takuya Uchida⚽
↕ Tomoya Wakahara / Kengo Nagai
13'
Yoshio Koizumi
16'
⚽Keita Endo · ast. Shota Fujio
23'
36'
ast. Kensuke Nagai · Yudai Kimura⚽
↕ Hinata Yamauchi / Yusuke Segawa
45'
↕ Sachiro Toshima / Wataru Harada
45'
Daiki Sugioka
52'
57'
Hidemasa Koda / Kensuke Nagai ↕
63'
Yuya Yamagishi / Yudai Kimura ↕
↕ Keita Endo / Kenshin Yuba
68'
↕ Yudai Konishi / Riki Harakawa
68'
↕ Shota Fujio / Mao Hosoya
73'
77'
Masahito Ono / Tsukasa Morishima ↕
77'
Tomoya Koyamatsu / Yuki Nogami ↕
77'
Shuhei Tokumoto / Ryuji Izumi ↕
79'
ast. Hidemasa Koda · Yuya Yamagishi⚽
86'
Yota Sato / Tomoki Takamine ↕
Pre-match prediction
49.55%
Kashiwa
28.23%
X
22.22%
Nagoya ←
we assigned to the actual result (Nagoya Grampus) 22.22% (low confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
Kashiwa
1.45
0.95
-0.5
Nagoya
0.54
1.07
+0.53
xG dominance was balanced (0.95 – 1.07). The final result does not reflect the playing dominance. The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
League Table
#Team GPts
1 Machida Zelvia Machida Zelvia 12 27
2 FC Tokyo FC Tokyo 12 27
3 Sanfrecce Hiroshima Sanfrecce Hiroshima 12 26
4 Kashiwa Reysol Kashiwa Reysol 12 25
5 Vissel Kobe Vissel Kobe 12 23
6 Kawasaki Frontale Kawasaki Frontale 12 22
7 Urawa Urawa 12 21
8 Kashima Kashima 12 20
9 Yokohama F. Marinos Yokohama F. Marinos 12 18
10 Fagiano Okayama Fagiano Okayama 12 16
11 Nagoya Grampus Nagoya Grampus 12 14
12 Cerezo Osaka Cerezo Osaka 12 14
13 Shimizu S-pulse Shimizu S-pulse 12 14
14 V-varen Nagasaki V-varen Nagasaki 12 12
15 Gamba Osaka Gamba Osaka 12 11
16 Kyoto Sanga Kyoto Sanga 12 10
17 Mito Hollyhock Mito Hollyhock 12 9
18 Tokyo Verdy Tokyo Verdy 12 8
19 Avispa Fukuoka Avispa Fukuoka 12 7
20 JEF United Chiba JEF United Chiba 12 7
Lineups
Kashiwa Reysol Kashiwa Reysol 3-4-2-1
77 T. Wakahara T. Wakahara 13' G 4.78
26 D. Sugioka D. Sugioka D 5.81
4 T. Koga T. Koga D 6.45
28 S. Toshima S. Toshima 46' D 6.12
5 K. Endo K. Endo 1 ⚽ 68' M 7.28
39 N. Nakagawa N. Nakagawa M 6.80
21 Y. Konishi Y. Konishi 68' M 6.34
24 T. Kubo T. Kubo M 6.05
87 H. Yamauchi H. Yamauchi 46' M 6.06
8 Y. Koizumi Y. Koizumi M 5.30
15 S. Fujio S. Fujio 1 👟 73' F 6.46
Bench
2 H. Mitsumaru H. Mitsumaru D 0.00
19 H. Nakama H. Nakama M 0.00
29 K. Nagai K. Nagai 77' G 5.66
44 K. Yuba K. Yuba 22' M 5.82
9 M. Hosoya M. Hosoya 17' F 6.39
40 R. Harakawa R. Harakawa 22' M 6.01
42 W. Harada W. Harada 44' D 5.56
20 Y. Segawa Y. Segawa 44' M 5.67
Nagoya Grampus Nagoya Grampus 3-4-2-1
1 D. Schmidt D. Schmidt G 6.98
31 T. Takamine T. Takamine 86' D 6.42
13 H. Fujii H. Fujii D 7.13
70 T. Hara T. Hara D 6.18
7 R. Izumi R. Izumi 77' M 5.95
14 T. Morishima T. Morishima 77' M 6.09
15 S. Inagaki S. Inagaki M 6.38
17 T. Uchida T. Uchida 1 ⚽ M 7.07
22 Y. Kimura Y. Kimura 1 ⚽ 1 👟 63' M 8.30
2 Y. Nogami Y. Nogami 77' M 5.87
18 K. Nagai K. Nagai 1 👟 57' F 7.68
Bench
35 A. Pisano A. Pisano G 0.00
19 H. Koda H. Koda 1 👟 33' M 6.75
27 K. Nakayama K. Nakayama M 0.00
10 Mateus Mateus F 0.00
41 M. Ono M. Ono 13' M 6.21
55 S. Tokumoto S. Tokumoto 13' D 6.68
58 T. Koyamatsu T. Koyamatsu 13' M 6.35
3 Y. Sato Y. Sato 4' D 6.33
11 Y. Yamagishi Y. Yamagishi 1 ⚽ 27' F 7.36
Best on the pitch
Y. Kimura
Y. Kimura
M · Nagoya
8.30
1 ⚽ 1 👟
3 shots · 13 pass
K. Nagai
K. Nagai
F · Nagoya
7.68
1 👟
· 12 pass
Y. Yamagishi
Y. Yamagishi
F · Nagoya
7.36
1 ⚽
2 shots · 10 pass
K. Endo
K. Endo
M · Kashiwa
7.28
1 ⚽
3 shots · 24 pass
H. Fujii
H. Fujii
D · Nagoya
7.13
· 61 pass
T. Uchida
T. Uchida
M · Nagoya
7.07
1 ⚽
1 shots · 26 pass
Kashiwa Reysol Kashiwa Reysol — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
T. Wakahara G 13 4.78 — — 0 0 0% 0 — —
D. Sugioka D 90 5.81 — — 0 73 63% 0 1 —
T. Koga D 90 6.45 — — 0 77 70% 0 — —
S. Toshima D 46 6.12 — — 0 27 22% 1 — —
K. Endo M 68 7.28 1 — 3 24 19% 1 — —
N. Nakagawa M 90 6.80 — — 3 73 66% 0 — —
Y. Konishi M 68 6.34 — — 1 60 53% 0 — —
T. Kubo M 90 6.05 — — 2 40 34% 1 — —
H. Yamauchi M 46 6.06 — — 1 18 13% 0 — —
Y. Koizumi M 90 5.30 — — 0 67 48% 0 1 —
S. Fujio F 73 6.46 — 1 3 21 18% 2 — —
K. Nagai G 77 5.66 — — 0 43 38% 0 — —
K. Yuba M 22 5.82 — — 0 14 11% 2 — —
M. Hosoya F 17 6.39 — — 0 7 3% 0 — —
R. Harakawa M 22 6.01 — — 1 24 18% 1 — —
W. Harada D 44 5.56 — — 0 24 20% 1 — —
Y. Segawa M 44 5.67 — — 0 10 6% 1 — —
Nagoya Grampus Nagoya Grampus — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
D. Schmidt G 90 6.98 — — 0 43 33% 0 — —
T. Takamine D 86 6.42 — — 1 56 45% 0 — —
H. Fujii D 90 7.13 — — 0 61 52% 3 — —
T. Hara D 90 6.18 — — 0 36 26% 2 — —
R. Izumi M 77 5.95 — — 0 35 31% 1 — —
T. Morishima M 77 6.09 — — 0 46 36% 3 — —
S. Inagaki M 90 6.38 — — 0 44 33% 1 — —
T. Uchida M 90 7.07 1 — 1 26 17% 1 — —
Y. Kimura M 63 8.30 1 1 3 13 11% 2 — —
Y. Nogami M 77 5.87 — — 0 19 15% 1 — —
K. Nagai F 57 7.68 — 1 0 12 9% 1 — —
H. Koda M 33 6.75 — 1 2 11 8% 1 — —
M. Ono M 13 6.21 — — 0 2 1% 1 — —
S. Tokumoto D 13 6.68 — — 0 4 2% 0 — —
T. Koyamatsu M 13 6.35 — — 0 2 2% 0 — —
Y. Sato D 4 6.33 — — 0 1 1% 0 — —
Y. Yamagishi F 27 7.36 1 — 2 10 5% 0 — —
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Kashiwa Reysol vs Nagoya Grampus?
The final score was Kashiwa Reysol 1–3 Nagoya Grampus.
What did the model predict before Kashiwa Reysol vs Nagoya Grampus?
The model assigned 49% probability to a Kashiwa Reysol win, 28% to a draw, and 22% to an Nagoya Grampus win.