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J1 League · Regular Season - 12 October 25, 2026 08:00 Uvance Todoroki Stadium by Fujitsu, Kawasaki
Kawasaki Frontale
#6 · 22 pts
2 – 1
Final score
Fagiano Okayama
#10 · 16 pts
Derik Lacerda (ast. Marcio Augusto da Silva Barbosa) 12'
Marcio Augusto da Silva Barbosa (ast. Tatsuya Ito) 51'
75' Oberdan Alionço de Lima
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The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Kawasaki Frontale a 47% win probability (draw 27%, Fagiano Okayama 24%). The final result was Kawasaki Frontale 2–1 Fagiano Okayama.

Match statistics
6
Total shots
20
2
Shots on target
2
0.65
Actual xG
1.06
1
Saves
0
51%
Possession
49%
3
Corners
8
23
Tackles
17
1
🟨 Yellow cards
2
Match Events
⚽Derik Lacerda · ast. Marcio Augusto da Silva Barbosa
12'
27'
Yoshitake Suzuki
45'+3
Lucas Marcos Meireles
⚽Marcio Augusto da Silva Barbosa · ast. Tatsuya Ito
51'
55'
Kamiya Yuta / Eiji Miyamoto ↕
55'
Léo Gaúcho / Kota Kawano ↕
Derik Lacerda
59'
61'
Soichiro Mori / Masaya Matsumoto ↕
↕ Derik Lacerda / Kyosuke Mochiyama
64'
72'
Ryoga Sato / Lucas Marcos Meireles ↕
72'
Towa Yamane / Haruka Motoyama ↕
↕ Reon Yamahara / Asahi Sasaki
72'
↕ Marcio Augusto da Silva Barbosa / Shuto Yamaichi
72'
75'
Oberdan Alionço de Lima⚽
↕ Yuki Yamamoto / So Kawahara
82'
↕ Tatsuya Ito / Yuto Ozeki
82'
Pre-match prediction
47.71%
Kawasaki ←
27.87%
X
24.41%
Fagiano
we assigned to the actual result (Kawasaki Frontale) 47.71% (medium confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
Kawasaki
1.42
0.65
-0.77
Fagiano
0.74
1.06
+0.32
Fagiano Okayama dominated by xG (1.06 vs 0.65). The final result does not reflect the playing dominance. The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
League Table
#Team GPts
1 Machida Zelvia Machida Zelvia 12 27
2 FC Tokyo FC Tokyo 12 27
3 Sanfrecce Hiroshima Sanfrecce Hiroshima 12 26
4 Kashiwa Reysol Kashiwa Reysol 12 25
5 Vissel Kobe Vissel Kobe 12 23
6 Kawasaki Frontale Kawasaki Frontale 12 22
7 Urawa Urawa 12 21
8 Kashima Kashima 12 20
9 Yokohama F. Marinos Yokohama F. Marinos 12 18
10 Fagiano Okayama Fagiano Okayama 12 16
11 Nagoya Grampus Nagoya Grampus 12 14
12 Cerezo Osaka Cerezo Osaka 12 14
13 Shimizu S-pulse Shimizu S-pulse 12 14
14 V-varen Nagasaki V-varen Nagasaki 12 12
15 Gamba Osaka Gamba Osaka 12 11
16 Kyoto Sanga Kyoto Sanga 12 10
17 Mito Hollyhock Mito Hollyhock 12 9
18 Tokyo Verdy Tokyo Verdy 12 8
19 Avispa Fukuoka Avispa Fukuoka 12 7
20 JEF United Chiba JEF United Chiba 12 7
Lineups
Kawasaki Frontale Kawasaki Frontale 4-2-3-1
49 S. Brodersen S. Brodersen G 6.03
13 S. Miura S. Miura D 7.22
22 F. Uremović F. Uremović D 7.01
4 Pedro Romano Pedro Romano D 6.68
29 R. Yamahara R. Yamahara 72' D 6.55
6 Y. Yamamoto Y. Yamamoto 82' M 6.22
8 K. Tachibanada K. Tachibanada M 6.29
23 Marcinho Marcinho 1 ⚽ 1 👟 72' M 8.22
14 Y. Wakizaka Y. Wakizaka M 6.60
17 T. Ito T. Ito 1 👟 82' M 6.25
97 Derik Lacerda Derik Lacerda 1 ⚽ 64' F 7.53
Bench
5 A. Sasaki A. Sasaki 18' D 6.13
20 K. Mochiyama K. Mochiyama 26' F 6.41
1 L. Yamaguchi L. Yamaguchi G 0.00
34 Ryuki Osa Ryuki Osa M 0.00
25 Shuto Yamaichi Shuto Yamaichi 18' M 6.39
19 S. Kawahara S. Kawahara 8' M 6.46
11 Y. Kobayashi Y. Kobayashi F 0.00
28 Y. Maruyama Y. Maruyama D 0.00
16 Y. Ozeki Y. Ozeki 8' M 6.32
Fagiano Okayama Fagiano Okayama 3-4-2-1
1 L. Moser L. Moser G 5.95
43 Y. Suzuki Y. Suzuki D 5.49
48 Y. Tatsuta Y. Tatsuta D 6.47
26 H. Motoyama H. Motoyama 72' D 6.03
51 K. Shirai K. Shirai M 6.20
80 Oberdan Oberdan 1 ⚽ M 8.10
41 E. Miyamoto E. Miyamoto 55' M 6.96
28 M. Matsumoto M. Matsumoto 61' M 5.87
8 A. Esaka A. Esaka M 6.14
20 K. Kawano K. Kawano 55' M 6.45
99 Lucão Lucão 72' F 6.09
Bench
24 I. Fujita I. Fujita M 0.00
9 Léo Gaúcho Léo Gaúcho 35' F 6.41
19 R. Sato R. Sato 18' F 6.61
7 R. Takeuchi R. Takeuchi M 0.00
44 S. Mori S. Mori 29' D 6.26
52 T. Hamada T. Hamada G 0.00
88 T. Yamane T. Yamane 18' M 5.71
55 Y. Fujii Y. Fujii D 0.00
33 Y. Kamiya Y. Kamiya 35' M 6.23
Best on the pitch
Marcinho
Marcinho
M · Kawasaki
8.22
1 ⚽ 1 👟
2 shots · 18 pass
Oberdan
Oberdan
M · Fagiano
8.10
1 ⚽
2 shots · 49 pass
Derik Lacerda
Derik Lacerda
F · Kawasaki
7.53
1 ⚽
1 shots · 15 pass
S. Miura
S. Miura
D · Kawasaki
7.22
· 50 pass
F. Uremović
F. Uremović
D · Kawasaki
7.01
· 36 pass
E. Miyamoto
E. Miyamoto
M · Fagiano
6.96
2 shots · 29 pass
Kawasaki Frontale Kawasaki Frontale — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
S. Brodersen G 90 6.03 — — 0 40 19% 0 — —
S. Miura D 90 7.22 — — 0 50 43% 0 — —
F. Uremović D 90 7.01 — — 0 36 29% 6 — —
Pedro Romano D 90 6.68 — — 0 35 27% 2 — —
R. Yamahara D 72 6.55 — — 0 19 12% 1 — —
Y. Yamamoto M 82 6.22 — — 0 56 45% 1 — —
K. Tachibanada M 90 6.29 — — 0 41 33% 2 — —
Marcinho M 72 8.22 1 1 2 18 11% 0 — —
Y. Wakizaka M 90 6.60 — — 2 34 31% 3 — —
T. Ito M 82 6.25 — 1 0 27 17% 1 — —
Derik Lacerda F 64 7.53 1 — 1 15 7% 2 1 —
A. Sasaki D 18 6.13 — — 0 5 2% 1 — —
K. Mochiyama F 26 6.41 — — 1 12 6% 0 — —
Shuto Yamaichi M 18 6.39 — — 0 12 8% 2 — —
S. Kawahara M 8 6.46 — — 0 2 1% 2 — —
Y. Ozeki M 8 6.32 — — 0 7 6% 0 — —
Fagiano Okayama Fagiano Okayama — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
L. Moser G 90 5.95 — — 0 20 13% 0 — —
Y. Suzuki D 90 5.49 — — 3 38 27% 0 1 —
Y. Tatsuta D 90 6.47 — — 1 46 33% 2 — —
H. Motoyama D 72 6.03 — — 0 23 17% 1 — —
K. Shirai M 90 6.20 — — 1 30 23% 1 — —
Oberdan M 90 8.10 1 — 2 49 44% 2 — —
E. Miyamoto M 55 6.96 — — 2 29 27% 1 — —
M. Matsumoto M 61 5.87 — — 1 16 12% 0 — —
A. Esaka M 90 6.14 — — 1 53 39% 1 — —
K. Kawano M 55 6.45 — — 2 15 14% 0 — —
Lucão F 72 6.09 — — 3 13 11% 1 1 —
Léo Gaúcho F 35 6.41 — — 2 9 6% 0 — —
R. Sato F 18 6.61 — — 0 2 2% 1 — —
S. Mori D 29 6.26 — — 0 11 7% 2 — —
T. Yamane M 18 5.71 — — 1 7 3% 2 — —
Y. Kamiya M 35 6.23 — — 1 9 6% 3 — —
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Kawasaki Frontale vs Fagiano Okayama?
The final score was Kawasaki Frontale 2–1 Fagiano Okayama.
What did the model predict before Kawasaki Frontale vs Fagiano Okayama?
The model assigned 47% probability to a Kawasaki Frontale win, 27% to a draw, and 24% to an Fagiano Okayama win.