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Kazakhstan - Moldova

UEFA Nations League October 02, 2026 16:00 Prifoods Stadium, Hachinohe
Kazakhstan
#1 · 0 pts
vs
Moldova
#4 · 0 pts
⚡ Pre-match analysis
83.52%
Win
Kazakhstan
8.1%
Draw
8.37%
Win
Moldova
4.39
Expected xG
1.28
Most likely outcome
Kazakhstan
83.52%
Probability
100.0%
1X2 accuracy · 2 predictions (3 months)

Market probabilities

Most likely result 4–1 (7.41%)
1X2 Result
1 84%
X 8%
2 8%
Double Chance
1X 92%
X2 17%
12 92%
Over / Under
Over 1.5 92%
Over 2.5 85%
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The ForzaPitch prediction gives Kazakhstan a 83% win probability, against 8% for a draw and 8% for Moldova. Expected goals are 4.4 for Kazakhstan and 1.3 for Moldova (total 5.7), with a 92% probability of Over 1.5 goals. The most likely scoreline is 4–1 at 7.41% probability.

Season Stats

Kazakhstan
0W 1D 5L
Moldova
3W 0D 1L
Averages per game
0.0
Goals
1.2
2.5
Conceded
0.2
1.2
Shots OT
3.3
2.2
Corners
3.0
38%
Poss.
54%
Percentages
67%
O 1.5
50%
50%
O 2.5
0%
0%
BTTS
0%
17%
Clean Sht
75%
ℹ Based on the last 6 matches in UEFA Nations League. Bars use fixed scales (goals max 3.5, percentages 0–100%).

Venue Form

Goals signal (venue avg)
0%
O 3.5
0%
BTTS
Kazakhstan
0W 1D 2L · at home
Moldova
1W 0D 1L · away
0.0
gls/g
0.5
1.0
Conceded
0.5
0%
Win %
50%
33%
Win or Draw
50%
33%
O 1.5
0%
0%
O 2.5
0%
0%
O 3.5
0%
0%
BTTS
0%
33%
Clean Sht
50%
100%
Failed to Score
50%
last 3
ℹ Home team's record in home matches only · Away team's record in away matches only.

Score Matrix

↕ Kazakhstan Moldova →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0 0.3% 0.4% 0.3% 0.1% — —
1 1.5% 1.9% 1.2% 0.5% 0.2% —
2 3.3% 4.3% 2.7% 1.2% 0.4% 0.1%
3 4.9% 6.2% 4.0% 1.7% 0.5% 0.1%
4 5.3% 6.8% 4.4% 1.9% 0.6% 0.2%
5 4.7% 6.0% 3.8% 1.6% 0.5% 0.1%

Recent form

Kazakhstan Kazakhstan
L Norway 5–0
L Austria 0–2
L Slovenia 0–1
L Austria 4–0
L Slovenia 3–0
Moldova Moldova
W Andorra 0–1
L Malta 1–0
W Andorra 2–0
W Malta 2–0
Away clean sheet (120 days) 23%

Playing profile

Kazakhstan Kazakhstan
Attack
32
Defence
67
Form
57
Moldova Moldova
Attack
29
Defence
41
Form
6
Indices on a 0–100 scale calculated by the model

UEFA Nations League , League C, Group 3

# Team G Pts
1 Kazakhstan Kazakhstan 0 0
2 Slovakia Slovakia 0 0
3 Faroe Islands Faroe Islands 0 0
4 Moldova Moldova 0 0

What's at stake · UEFA Nations League , League C, Group 3

Top 2 advance to the next round

Kazakhstan Moldova
Current #1 #4
→ Kazakhstan #1 #4
→ Draw #1 #2
→ Moldova #2 #1

Projected ranking after this match only. Goal difference tiebreakers not applied.

Frequently Asked Questions
Who will win Kazakhstan vs Moldova?
The model gives Kazakhstan a 83% win probability, 8% for a draw, and 8% for an Moldova win.
How many goals are expected in Kazakhstan vs Moldova?
Expected goals: Kazakhstan 4.4, Moldova 1.3 (total 5.7). Probability of over 1.5 goals: 92%.
What is the most likely score in Kazakhstan vs Moldova?
4–1 is the most probable final score, with an estimated probability of 7.41%.