Kenya - Eritrea
Africa Cup of Nations - Qual.
September 26, 2026 15:00
⚡ Pre-match analysis
36.09%
Win
Kenya
30.61%
Draw
33.3%
Win
Eritrea
2.08
1.8
Expected xG
Market probabilities
Most likely result
1–1
(9.0%)
1X2 Result
1
36%
X
31%
2
33%
Double Chance
1X
67%
X2
64%
12
69%
Over / Under
Over 1.5
76%
Over 2.5
53%
The ForzaPitch prediction gives Kenya a 36% win probability, against 30% for a draw and 33% for Eritrea. Expected goals are 2.1 for Kenya and 1.8 for Eritrea (total 3.9), with a 76% probability of Over 1.5 goals. The most likely scoreline is 1–1 at 9.0% probability.
Score Matrix
↕ Kenya
Eritrea →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.1% | 3.7% | 3.3% | 2.0% | 0.9% | 0.3% |
| 1 | 4.3% | 7.7% | 6.9% | 4.2% | 1.9% | 0.7% |
| 2 | 4.5% | 8.0% | 7.2% | 4.3% | 2.0% | 0.7% |
| 3 | 3.1% | 5.6% | 5.0% | 3.0% | 1.4% | 0.5% |
| 4 | 1.6% | 2.9% | 2.6% | 1.6% | 0.7% | 0.3% |
| 5 | 0.7% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
Playing profile
Kenya
Attack
58
Defence
88
Form
69
Eritrea
Attack
50
Defence
87
Form
80
Indices on a 0–100 scale calculated by the model
Frequently Asked Questions
Who will win Kenya vs Eritrea?
The model gives Kenya a 36% win probability, 30% for a draw, and 33% for an Eritrea win.
How many goals are expected in Kenya vs Eritrea?
Expected goals: Kenya 2.1, Eritrea 1.8 (total 3.9). Probability of over 1.5 goals: 76%.
What is the most likely score in Kenya vs Eritrea?
1–1 is the most probable final score, with an estimated probability of 9.0%.