Africa Cup of Nations - Qual.
· Group Stage - 1
September 26, 2026 15:00
Rambok Ryan Wesley Ogam
(ast. Ben Stanley Omondi)
87'
36'
(ast. Ali Sulieman)
Nahom Girmai
The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Kenya a 39% win probability (draw 29%, Eritrea 31%). The final result was Kenya 1–1 Eritrea.
Match statistics
25
Total shots
11
6
Shots on target
6
68%
Possession
32%
8
Corners
0
5
Tackles
13
2
🟨 Yellow cards
1
Match Events
23'
Jozef Misignha
/
Jamal Ali
Ronney Onyango
29'
36'
ast. Ali Sulieman ·
Nahom Girmai⚽
52'
Victor Fors
Manzur Okwaro
60'
Job Ochieng
/ Ben Stanley Omondi
64'
Timothy Ouma
/ S. Wilson
65'
67'
Nahom Tadese Mekonen
/
Tesfaldet Tekie
Manzur Okwaro
/ mohammed bajaber
70'
78'
Awed Issac Abeselom
/
Esrom Yohannes
78'
Maill Lundgren
/
Filimon Gerezgiher
Ronney Onyango
/ Amos Wanjala
79'
Micah Obiero
/ Shariff Sirengo
79'
⚽Rambok Ryan Wesley Ogam
· ast. Ben Stanley Omondi
87'
Pre-match prediction
39.96%
Kenya
29.03%
X ←
31.0%
Eritrea
we assigned to the actual result (Draw)
29.03%
(low confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
2.60
—
—
2.10
—
—
Lineups
23
78'
G
3
78'
D
5
F. Odhiambo
D
2
78'
D
16
R. Onyango
79'
D
8
Duke Ooga Abuya
M
Duke Ooga Abuya
M
20
M. Okwaro
70'
M
19
J. Ochieng
64'
M
J. Ochieng
64'
M
10
T. Ouma
65'
M
T. Ouma
65'
M
22
M. Obiero
79'
M
M. Obiero
79'
M
15
R. Ogam
1 ⚽
F
Bench
14
A. Wanjala
11'
D
4
M. Kibwage
D
21
S. Wilson
25'
M
S. Wilson
25'
M
17
V. Harper
D
1
78'
G
3
78'
D
14
Namrud Embaye
D
Namrud Embaye
D
4
J. Ali
23'
D
J. Ali
23'
D
25
V. Fors
D
V. Fors
D
20
N. Girmai Netabay
1 ⚽
M
N. Girmai Netabay
1 ⚽
M
9
T. Tekie
67'
M
T. Tekie
67'
M
7
F. Gerezgiher
78'
M
F. Gerezgiher
78'
M
19
78'
M
8
78'
M
10
A. Sulieman
1 👟
F
A. Sulieman
1 👟
F
Bench
26
A. Alemseged
F
A. Alemseged
F
16
Hennos Asmelash
D
Hennos Asmelash
D
23
I. Lundgren
12'
F
I. Lundgren
12'
F
31
Y. Sebhatu
D
Y. Sebhatu
D
Best on the pitch
R. Ogam
F · Kenya
8.20
1 ⚽
9 shots
· 20 pass
N. Girmai Netabay
M · Eritrea
8.02
1 ⚽
2 shots
· 20 pass
A. Sulieman
F · Eritrea
7.55
1 👟
4 shots
· 3 pass
Duke Ooga Abuya
M · Kenya
7.20
3 shots
· 74 pass
M. Obiero
M · Kenya
7.07
2 shots
· 28 pass
R. Onyango
D · Kenya
6.88
2 shots
· 52 pass
Kenya — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | 78 | 6.07 | — | — | 1 | 9 | 5% | 0 | — | — | |
| D | 78 | 6.07 | — | — | 1 | 9 | 5% | 0 | — | — | |
| F. Odhiambo | D | 90 | 6.45 | — | — | 1 | 52 | 43% | 1 | — | — |
| D | 78 | 6.07 | — | — | 1 | 9 | 5% | 0 | — | — | |
| R. Onyango | D | 79 | 6.88 | — | — | 2 | 52 | 47% | 0 | 1 | — |
| Duke Ooga Abuya | M | 90 | 7.20 | — | — | 3 | 74 | 65% | 1 | — | — |
| M. Okwaro | M | 70 | 6.47 | — | — | 2 | 40 | 38% | 0 | 1 | — |
| J. Ochieng | M | 64 | 6.78 | — | — | 2 | 27 | 23% | 0 | — | — |
| T. Ouma | M | 65 | 6.41 | — | — | 0 | 26 | 22% | 2 | — | — |
| M. Obiero | M | 79 | 7.07 | — | — | 2 | 28 | 26% | 1 | — | — |
| R. Ogam | F | 90 | 8.20 | 1 | — | 9 | 20 | 16% | 0 | — | — |
| A. Wanjala | D | 11 | 6.34 | — | — | 0 | 13 | 11% | 0 | — | — |
| S. Wilson | M | 25 | 6.70 | — | — | 1 | 22 | 19% | 0 | — | — |
Eritrea — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | 78 | 6.07 | — | — | 1 | 9 | 5% | 0 | — | — | |
| D | 78 | 6.07 | — | — | 1 | 9 | 5% | 0 | — | — | |
| Namrud Embaye | D | 90 | 6.84 | — | — | 0 | 37 | 34% | 2 | — | — |
| J. Ali | D | 23 | 6.32 | — | — | 0 | 14 | 12% | 2 | — | — |
| V. Fors | D | 90 | 6.27 | — | — | 0 | 36 | 29% | 3 | 1 | — |
| N. Girmai Netabay | M | 90 | 8.02 | 1 | — | 2 | 20 | 15% | 2 | — | — |
| T. Tekie | M | 67 | 6.60 | — | — | 0 | 22 | 21% | 1 | — | — |
| F. Gerezgiher | M | 78 | 5.94 | — | — | 1 | 9 | 7% | 0 | — | — |
| M | 78 | 6.07 | — | — | 1 | 9 | 5% | 0 | — | — | |
| M | 78 | 6.07 | — | — | 1 | 9 | 5% | 0 | — | — | |
| A. Sulieman | F | 90 | 7.55 | — | 1 | 4 | 3 | 2% | 1 | — | — |
| I. Lundgren | F | 12 | 6.55 | — | — | 0 | 4 | 4% | 2 | — | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Kenya vs Eritrea?
The final score was Kenya 1–1 Eritrea.
What did the model predict before Kenya vs Eritrea?
The model assigned 39% probability to a Kenya win, 29% to a draw, and 31% to an Eritrea win.