Kenya - South Africa
Africa Cup of Nations - Qual.
November 15, 2026 18:00
⚡ Pre-match analysis
35.18%
Win
Kenya
32.64%
Draw
32.18%
Win
South Africa
0.88
0.83
Expected xG
Market probabilities
Most likely result
1–0
(15.72%)
1X2 Result
1
35%
X
33%
2
32%
Double Chance
1X
68%
X2
65%
12
67%
Over / Under
Over 1.5
81%
✓ 77.1% hit rate (48 picks)
Over 2.5
57%
The ForzaPitch prediction gives Kenya a 35% win probability, against 32% for a draw and 32% for South Africa. Expected goals are 0.9 for Kenya and 0.8 for South Africa (total 1.7), with a 80% probability of Over 1.5 goals. The most likely scoreline is 1–0 at 15.72% probability.
Season Stats
0W
1D
1L
2W
0D
0L
Averages per game
0.5
Goals
3.5
1.0
Conceded
0.5
4.0
Shots OT
7.0
5.0
Corners
6.5
59%
Poss.
60%
Percentages
50%
O 1.5
100%
0%
O 2.5
100%
50%
BTTS
50%
0%
Clean Sht
50%
ℹ
Based on the last 2 matches in Africa Cup of Nations - Qual.. Bars use fixed scales (goals max 3.5, percentages 0–100%).
Score Matrix
↕ Kenya
South Africa →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 18.0% | 15.0% | 6.2% | 1.7% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| 1 | 15.9% | 13.2% | 5.5% | 1.5% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| 2 | 7.0% | 5.8% | 2.4% | 0.7% | 0.1% | — |
| 3 | 2.1% | 1.7% | 0.7% | 0.2% | — | — |
| 4 | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.2% | — | — | — |
| 5 | 0.1% | 0.1% | — | — | — | — |
Recent form
Playing profile
Kenya
Attack
31
Defence
80
Form
23
South Africa
Attack
41
Defence
71
Form
65
Indices on a 0–100 scale calculated by the model
Group D
| # | Team | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
South Africa
|
2 | 6 |
| 2 |
Guinea
|
2 | 3 |
| 3 |
Eritrea
|
2 | 1 |
| 4 |
Kenya
|
2 | 1 |
What's at stake · Group D
Top 2 advance to the next round
| Current | #4 | #1 |
| → Kenya | #2 | #1 |
| → Draw | #3 | #1 |
| → South Africa | #3 | #1 |
Projected ranking after this match only. Goal difference tiebreakers not applied.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who will win Kenya vs South Africa?
The model gives Kenya a 35% win probability, 32% for a draw, and 32% for an South Africa win.
How many goals are expected in Kenya vs South Africa?
Expected goals: Kenya 0.9, South Africa 0.8 (total 1.7). Probability of over 1.5 goals: 80%.
What is the most likely score in Kenya vs South Africa?
1–0 is the most probable final score, with an estimated probability of 15.72%.