Scottish Premiership
· Regular Season - 9
October 17, 2026 16:00
The BBSP Stadium Rugby Park, Kilmarnock
Greg Kiltie
2'
Tyreece John-Jules
(ast. Jamie Brandon)
58'
Greg Kiltie
(ast. Jamie Brandon)
69'
17'
Alex·Lowry
56'
Sebastian Palmer-Houlden
The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Motherwell a 34% win probability (draw 35%, Kilmarnock 30%). The final result was Kilmarnock 3–2 Motherwell. In 3 previous meetings, Kilmarnock have won 0 times, with 1 draws and 2 wins for Motherwell.
Match statistics
16
Total shots
15
6
Shots on target
7
1.56
Actual xG
2.46
6
Saves
4
52%
Possession
48%
5
Corners
3
7
Tackles
23
1
🟨 Yellow cards
0
Match Events
⚽Greg Kiltie
2'
17'
Alex·Lowry⚽
Michael-John Kamson-Kamara
/ Jamie Brandon
33'
Bailey Rice
/ Aaron Tshibola
35'
52'
George Stanger
55'
56'
Sebastian Palmer-Houlden⚽
⚽Tyreece John-Jules
· ast. Jamie Brandon
58'
68'
Eythor Bjørgolfsson
/
Sebastian Palmer-Houlden
68'
Jardell Kanga
/
Alex·Lowry
68'
Jake Max Girdwood-Reich
/
Martin Moormann
⚽Greg Kiltie
· ast. Jamie Brandon
69'
75'
Dylan Levitt
/
Lukas Fadinger
Greg Kiltie
/ Ieuan Gwyn Owen
77'
Tyreece John-Jules
/ Djenairo Daniels
77'
81'
Johnny Koutroumbis
/
Tom Sparrow
Pre-match prediction
30.08%
Kilmarnock ←
35.31%
X
34.61%
Motherwell
we assigned to the actual result (Kilmarnock)
30.08%
(low confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
0.58
1.56
+0.98
0.72
2.46
+1.74
Motherwell dominated by xG (2.46 vs 1.56).
The final result does not reflect the playing dominance.
The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
Lineups
12
C. Ferrie
G
C. Ferrie
G
21
M. Schjønning-Larsen
D
M. Schjønning-Larsen
D
14
G. Stanger
D
G. Stanger
D
4
C. McCarthy
D
C. McCarthy
D
3
Michael-John Kamson-Kamara
33'
D
Michael-John Kamson-Kamara
33'
D
18
T. Lowery
M
T. Lowery
M
49
B. Rice
35'
M
B. Rice
35'
M
11
G. Kiltie
2 ⚽
77'
M
G. Kiltie
2 ⚽
77'
M
10
T. John-Jules
1 ⚽
77'
M
T. John-Jules
1 ⚽
77'
M
8
E. Ring
M
E. Ring
M
9
J. Hugill
F
J. Hugill
F
Bench
36
A. Tshibola
55'
M
A. Tshibola
55'
M
29
D. Daniels
13'
F
D. Daniels
13'
F
27
I. Owen
13'
F
I. Owen
13'
F
2
J. Brandon
2 👟
57'
D
J. Brandon
2 👟
57'
D
19
J. Meier
D
J. Meier
D
5
M. O'Hara
M
M. O'Hara
M
20
N. Cleșcenco
F
N. Cleșcenco
F
58
N. Mantl
G
N. Mantl
G
6
R. Deas
D
R. Deas
D
1
A. Paulsen
G
A. Paulsen
G
45
M. Emmanuel
D
M. Emmanuel
D
5
M. Moormann
68'
D
M. Moormann
68'
D
2
S. O'Donnell
D
S. O'Donnell
D
7
T. Sparrow
81'
D
T. Sparrow
81'
D
71
J. Hodge
M
J. Hodge
M
8
L. Fadinger
75'
M
L. Fadinger
75'
M
19
I. Said
M
I. Said
M
11
A. Lowry
1 ⚽
68'
M
A. Lowry
1 ⚽
68'
M
18
Tawanda Jethro Maswanhise
M
Tawanda Jethro Maswanhise
M
47
S. Palmer-Houlden
1 ⚽
68'
F
S. Palmer-Houlden
1 ⚽
68'
F
Bench
63
D. Levitt
15'
M
D. Levitt
15'
M
15
E. Björgólfsson
22'
F
E. Björgólfsson
22'
F
4
Jamie Knight-Lebel
D
Jamie Knight-Lebel
D
3
J. Girdwood-Reich
22'
D
J. Girdwood-Reich
22'
D
13
J. Kanga
22'
M
J. Kanga
22'
M
22
J. Koutroumbis
9'
D
J. Koutroumbis
9'
D
6
J. McGhee
D
J. McGhee
D
21
M. Connelly
G
M. Connelly
G
77
W. Vogt
F
W. Vogt
F
Best on the pitch
G. Kiltie
M · Kilmarnock
9.04
2 ⚽
4 shots
· 30 pass
T. John-Jules
M · Kilmarnock
7.89
1 ⚽
5 shots
· 25 pass
S. Palmer-Houlden
F · Motherwell
7.28
1 ⚽
5 shots
· 8 pass
C. Ferrie
G · Kilmarnock
7.11
· 40 pass
I. Owen
F · Kilmarnock
6.88
1 shots
· 6 pass
L. Fadinger
M · Motherwell
6.75
· 43 pass
Kilmarnock — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C. Ferrie | G | 90 | 7.11 | — | — | 0 | 40 | 28% | 0 | — | — |
| M. Schjønning-Larsen | D | 90 | 6.07 | — | — | 0 | 41 | 33% | 0 | — | — |
| G. Stanger | D | 90 | 5.76 | — | — | 0 | 63 | 52% | 1 | 1 | — |
| C. McCarthy | D | 90 | 6.04 | — | — | 0 | 80 | 63% | 1 | — | — |
| Michael-John Kamson-Kamara | D | 33 | 6.13 | — | — | 0 | 9 | 8% | 0 | — | — |
| T. Lowery | M | 90 | 6.30 | — | — | 1 | 57 | 52% | 1 | — | — |
| B. Rice | M | 35 | 6.00 | — | — | 0 | 16 | 12% | 0 | — | — |
| G. Kiltie | M | 77 | 9.04 | 2 | — | 4 | 30 | 27% | 0 | — | — |
| T. John-Jules | M | 77 | 7.89 | 1 | — | 5 | 25 | 19% | 1 | — | — |
| E. Ring | M | 90 | 6.15 | — | — | 2 | 34 | 25% | 1 | — | — |
| J. Hugill | F | 90 | 6.42 | — | — | 3 | 10 | 6% | 0 | — | — |
| A. Tshibola | M | 55 | 6.42 | — | — | 0 | 47 | 43% | 1 | — | — |
| D. Daniels | F | 13 | 6.45 | — | — | 0 | 7 | 4% | 0 | — | — |
| I. Owen | F | 13 | 6.88 | — | — | 1 | 6 | 4% | 0 | — | — |
| J. Brandon | D | 57 | 6.62 | — | 2 | 0 | 49 | 39% | 1 | — | — |
Motherwell — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Paulsen | G | 90 | 6.18 | — | — | 0 | 39 | 28% | 0 | — | — |
| M. Emmanuel | D | 90 | 5.91 | — | — | 0 | 32 | 25% | 2 | — | — |
| M. Moormann | D | 68 | 6.24 | — | — | 0 | 50 | 45% | 3 | — | — |
| S. O'Donnell | D | 90 | 6.26 | — | — | 0 | 63 | 48% | 2 | — | — |
| T. Sparrow | D | 81 | 5.96 | — | — | 0 | 43 | 32% | 2 | — | — |
| J. Hodge | M | 90 | 6.36 | — | — | 2 | 66 | 58% | 4 | — | — |
| L. Fadinger | M | 75 | 6.75 | — | — | 0 | 43 | 42% | 3 | — | — |
| I. Said | M | 90 | 6.45 | — | — | 2 | 33 | 24% | 0 | — | — |
| A. Lowry | M | 68 | 6.71 | 1 | — | 3 | 23 | 15% | 1 | — | — |
| Tawanda Jethro Maswanhise | M | 90 | 6.68 | — | — | 2 | 18 | 10% | 0 | — | — |
| S. Palmer-Houlden | F | 68 | 7.28 | 1 | — | 5 | 8 | 7% | 2 | — | — |
| D. Levitt | M | 15 | 5.52 | — | — | 0 | 14 | 11% | 1 | — | — |
| E. Björgólfsson | F | 22 | 6.28 | — | — | 0 | 2 | 2% | 0 | — | — |
| J. Girdwood-Reich | D | 22 | 5.85 | — | — | 0 | 20 | 16% | 0 | — | — |
| J. Kanga | M | 22 | 5.75 | — | — | 0 | 13 | 10% | 1 | — | — |
| J. Koutroumbis | D | 9 | 6.12 | — | — | 1 | 11 | 7% | 2 | — | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Kilmarnock vs Motherwell?
The final score was Kilmarnock 3–2 Motherwell.
What did the model predict before Kilmarnock vs Motherwell?
The model assigned 30% probability to a Kilmarnock win, 35% to a draw, and 34% to an Motherwell win.