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Kosovo - Austria

UEFA Nations League October 04, 2026 18:00 Denka Big Swan Stadium, Niigata
Kosovo
#2 · 6 pts
vs
Austria
#2 · 0 pts
⚡ Pre-match analysis
72.13%
Win
Kosovo
13.76%
Draw
14.11%
Win
Austria
3.2
Expected xG
1.32
Most likely outcome
Kosovo
72.13%
Probability
100.0%
1X2 accuracy · 2 predictions (3 months)

Market probabilities

Most likely result 3–1 (7.99%)
1X2 Result
1 72%
X 14%
2 14%
Double Chance
1X 86%
X2 28%
12 86%
Over / Under
Over 1.5 92%
Over 2.5 84%
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The ForzaPitch prediction gives Kosovo a 72% win probability, against 13% for a draw and 14% for Austria. Expected goals are 3.2 for Kosovo and 1.3 for Austria (total 4.5), with a 92% probability of Over 1.5 goals. The most likely scoreline is 3–1 at 7.99% probability.

Season Stats

Kosovo
6W 0D 2L
Austria
3W 3D 2L
Averages per game
1.9
Goals
1.9
1.1
Conceded
1.0
5.6
Shots OT
5.8
4.4
Corners
4.8
51%
Poss.
65%
Percentages
88%
O 1.5
100%
88%
O 2.5
38%
38%
BTTS
63%
38%
Clean Sht
25%
ℹ Based on the last 8 matches in UEFA Nations League. Bars use fixed scales (goals max 3.5, percentages 0–100%).

Venue Form

Goals signal (venue avg)
0%
O 3.5
38%
BTTS
Kosovo
3W 0D 1L · at home
Austria
1W 1D 2L · away
1.5
gls/g
1.0
1.0
Conceded
1.2
75%
Win %
25%
75%
Win or Draw
50%
75%
O 1.5
100%
75%
O 2.5
25%
0%
O 3.5
0%
25%
BTTS
50%
50%
Clean Sht
25%
25%
Failed to Score
25%
last 4
ℹ Home team's record in home matches only · Away team's record in away matches only.

Score Matrix

↕ Kosovo Austria →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0 1.1% 1.4% 0.9% 0.4% 0.1% —
1 3.5% 4.6% 3.0% 1.3% 0.4% 0.1%
2 5.6% 7.4% 4.9% 2.1% 0.7% 0.2%
3 6.0% 7.9% 5.2% 2.3% 0.7% 0.2%
4 4.8% 6.3% 4.1% 1.8% 0.6% 0.2%
5 3.1% 4.0% 2.6% 1.2% 0.4% 0.1%

Recent form

Kosovo Kosovo
W Iceland 1–3
W Iceland 2–1
W Lithuania 1–0
L Romania 3–0
W Cyprus 3–0
Home clean sheet (120 days) 37%
Austria Austria
L Serbia 2–0
D Serbia 1–1
D Slovenia 1–1
W Kazakhstan 0–2
W Norway 5–1
Away clean sheet (120 days) 18%

Playing profile

Kosovo Kosovo
Attack
43
Defence
69
Form
28
Austria Austria
Attack
31
Defence
58
Form
41
Indices on a 0–100 scale calculated by the model

Play-offs B/C

# Team G Pts
1 Georgia Georgia 2 6
2 Kosovo Kosovo 2 6
3 Rep. Of Ireland Rep. Of Ireland 2 6
4 Slovenia Slovenia 2 4
5 Slovakia Slovakia 2 1
6 Bulgaria Bulgaria 2 0
7 Iceland Iceland 2 0
8 Armenia Armenia 2 0

What's at stake · Play-offs B/C

Top 2 advance to the next round

Kosovo Austria
Current #2 #1
→ Kosovo #1 #1
→ Draw #1 #1
→ Austria #2 #1

Projected ranking after this match only. Goal difference tiebreakers not applied.

Frequently Asked Questions
Who will win Kosovo vs Austria?
The model gives Kosovo a 72% win probability, 13% for a draw, and 14% for an Austria win.
How many goals are expected in Kosovo vs Austria?
Expected goals: Kosovo 3.2, Austria 1.3 (total 4.5). Probability of over 1.5 goals: 92%.
What is the most likely score in Kosovo vs Austria?
3–1 is the most probable final score, with an estimated probability of 7.99%.