Krylia Sovetov 1–1 Spartak Moscow — pre-match prediction — Premier League — October 10, 2026

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Premier League · Regular Season - 10 October 10, 2026 16:30 Solidarnost Samara Arena, Samara

Krylia Sovetov

#8 · 15 pts

1 – 1

Final score

Spartak Moscow

#5 · 23 pts

Martin Kramarič (ast. Kazbek Mukailov) 86'

79' (ast. Igor Dmitriev) Manfred Ugalde

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The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Spartak Moscow a 41% win probability (draw 29%, Krylia Sovetov 28%). The final result was Krylia Sovetov 1–1 Spartak Moscow. In 3 previous meetings, Krylia Sovetov have won 1 times, with 0 draws and 2 wins for Spartak Moscow.

Match statistics

Total shots

Shots on target

2.59

Actual xG

0.58

Saves

59%

Possession

41%

Corners

Tackles

🟨 Yellow cards

🟥 Red cards

Match Events

24'

Aleksandr Maksimenko

26'

Ilya Pomazun / Marquinhos ↕

Amar Rahmanović

55'

↕ Amar Rahmanović / Denis Makarov

60'

↕ Nikita Saltykov / Ilzat Akhmetov

60'

↕ Maksim Vityugov / Vitaliy Shitov

60'

65'

Daniil Denisov / Roman Zobnin ↕

65'

Victor Parada / Pablo Solari ↕

↕ Kirill Pechenin / Kirill Stolbov

70'

78'

Igor Dmitriev / Esequiel Barco ↕

78'

Danil Prutsev / Srdjan Babic ↕

79'

ast. Igor Dmitriev · Manfred Ugalde⚽

83'

Manfred Ugalde

↕ Yuriy Gorshkov / Kazbek Mukailov

85'

⚽Martin Kramarič · ast. Kazbek Mukailov

86'

90'+1

Gedson Fernandes

Pre-match prediction

28.91%

Krylia

29.24%

X ←

41.86%

Spartak

we assigned to the actual result (Draw) 29.24% (low confidence)

Expected vs actual xG

Exp.

Actual

Krylia

0.86

2.59

+1.73

Spartak

1.15

0.58

-0.57

Krylia Sovetov dominated by xG (2.59 vs 0.58). The final result does not reflect the playing dominance. The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.

League Table

#	Team	G	Pts
1	Zenit	12	27
2	Dynamo	12	25
3	CSKA Moscow	12	25
4	FC Krasnodar	12	23
5	Spartak Moscow	12	23
6	FC Orenburg	12	16
7	FC Rostov	12	15
8	Krylia Sovetov	12	15
9	Baltika	12	14
10	Dinamo Makhachkala	12	13
11	Rubin	12	12
12	Akron	12	12
13	Lokomotiv	12	11
14	Akhmat	12	11
15	Rodina Moskva	12	9
16	Fakel	12	6

Lineups

Krylia Sovetov 4-2-3-1

N. Kokarev G 6.17

K. Pechenin 70' D 6.68

S. Bozhin D 7.29

N. Chernov D 7.29

N. Rasskazov D 6.84

Y. Gorshkov 85' M 6.37

Fernando Costanza M 7.08

M. Kramarič 1 ⚽ M 7.38

M. Vityugov 60' M 6.55

N. Saltykov 60' M 6.72

A. Rahmanović 60' F 6.56

Bench

Dani Fernández D 0.00

D. Makarov 30' M 6.49

D. Oroz D 0.00

E. Frolov G 0.00

I. Akhmetov 30' M 7.06

I. Lepskiy D 0.00

J. Marín M 0.00

Kazbek Mukailov 1 👟 5' F 6.93

K. Stolbov 20' M 6.43

M. Banjac M 0.00

T. Galdames D 0.00

V. Shitov 30' F 7.20

Spartak Moscow 4-2-3-1

A. Maksimenko 24' G 4.96

R. Zobnin 65' D 6.84

S. Babić 78' D 7.04

C. Wooh D 7.15

Gedson Fernandes D 6.18

N. Umyarov M 6.18

R. Litvinov M 6.71

Marquinhos 26' M 6.11

E. Barco 78' M 5.82

P. Solari 65' M 6.38

M. Ugalde 1 ⚽ F 7.88

Bench

A. Dovbnya G 0.00

D. Denisov 25' D 6.61

D. Prutsev 12' M 6.47

I. Dmitriev 1 👟 12' M 6.78

I. Pomazun 64' G 6.54

I. Sorokin M 0.00

M. Daku F 0.00

Nikita Massalyga M 0.00

P. Polekh F 0.00

Víctor Parada 25' D 6.58

V. Saus M 0.00

Best on the pitch

M. Ugalde

F · Spartak

7.88

1 ⚽

3 shots · 24 pass

M. Kramarič

M · Krylia

7.38

1 ⚽

3 shots · 24 pass

S. Bozhin

D · Krylia

7.29

3 shots · 61 pass

N. Chernov

D · Krylia

7.29

2 shots · 77 pass

V. Shitov

F · Krylia

7.20

4 shots · 6 pass

C. Wooh

D · Spartak

7.15

· 30 pass

Krylia Sovetov — Player statistics

Team	Pos	Min	Rating	⚽	👟	Shots	Pass	Acc%	Tck	YC	RC
N. Kokarev	G	90	6.17	—	—	0	23	16%	0	—	—
K. Pechenin	D	70	6.68	—	—	0	40	32%	2	—	—
S. Bozhin	D	90	7.29	—	—	3	61	55%	1	—	—
N. Chernov	D	90	7.29	—	—	2	77	73%	1	—	—
N. Rasskazov	D	90	6.84	—	—	3	50	36%	0	—	—
Y. Gorshkov	M	85	6.37	—	—	5	49	41%	0	—	—
Fernando Costanza	M	90	7.08	—	—	1	64	58%	1	—	—
M. Kramarič	M	90	7.38	1	—	3	24	16%	2	—	—
M. Vityugov	M	60	6.55	—	—	1	15	13%	0	—	—
N. Saltykov	M	60	6.72	—	—	1	17	12%	1	—	—
A. Rahmanović	F	60	6.56	—	—	0	8	7%	0	1	—
D. Makarov	M	30	6.49	—	—	1	4	2%	0	—	—
I. Akhmetov	M	30	7.06	—	—	0	10	10%	1	—	—
Kazbek Mukailov	F	5	6.93	—	1	0	1	1%	0	—	—
K. Stolbov	M	20	6.43	—	—	0	5	3%	0	—	—
V. Shitov	F	30	7.20	—	—	4	6	4%	1	—	—

Spartak Moscow — Player statistics

Team	Pos	Min	Rating	⚽	👟	Shots	Pass	Acc%	Tck	YC	RC
A. Maksimenko	G	24	4.96	—	—	0	5	5%	0	—	1
R. Zobnin	D	65	6.84	—	—	0	23	20%	0	—	—
S. Babić	D	78	7.04	—	—	0	42	36%	1	—	—
C. Wooh	D	90	7.15	—	—	0	30	25%	2	—	—
Gedson Fernandes	D	90	6.18	—	—	0	22	16%	1	1	—
N. Umyarov	M	90	6.18	—	—	2	27	18%	1	—	—
R. Litvinov	M	90	6.71	—	—	1	34	26%	1	—	—
Marquinhos	M	26	6.11	—	—	0	10	9%	1	—	—
E. Barco	M	78	5.82	—	—	1	30	21%	0	—	—
P. Solari	M	65	6.38	—	—	1	18	13%	1	—	—
M. Ugalde	F	90	7.88	1	—	3	24	19%	2	1	—
D. Denisov	D	25	6.61	—	—	0	9	6%	0	—	—
D. Prutsev	M	12	6.47	—	—	0	3	2%	1	—	—
I. Dmitriev	M	12	6.78	—	1	1	2	2%	1	—	—
I. Pomazun	G	64	6.54	—	—	0	33	10%	0	—	—
Víctor Parada	D	25	6.58	—	—	0	2	2%	0	—	—

Frequently Asked Questions

What was the final score of Krylia Sovetov vs Spartak Moscow?

The final score was Krylia Sovetov 1–1 Spartak Moscow.

What did the model predict before Krylia Sovetov vs Spartak Moscow?

The model assigned 28% probability to a Krylia Sovetov win, 29% to a draw, and 41% to an Spartak Moscow win.