Copa Libertadores
· Group Stage - 3
April 29, 2026 00:00
Agustín Cardozo
(ast. Marcelino Moreno)
74'
The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Lanus a 46% win probability (draw 34%, LDU de Quito 19%). The final result was Lanus 1–0 LDU de Quito. In 1 previous meetings, Lanus have won 0 times, with 0 draws and 1 wins for LDU de Quito.
Match statistics
8
Total shots
5
5
Shots on target
1
0.86
Actual xG
0.26
1
Saves
4
55%
Possession
45%
6
Corners
4
22
Tackles
20
3
🟨 Yellow cards
3
Match Events
12'
Yerlin Quinonez
Tomás Guidara
15'
Ramiro Carrera
45'+4
45'+5
Gian Franco Allala
Carlos Izquierdoz
53'
58'
Jeison Medina
Ramiro Carrera
/ Yoshan Valois
62'
Lucas Besozzi
/ Dylan Aquino
62'
Felipe Peña Biafore
/ Agustín Cardozo
72'
Eduardo Salvio
/ Matías Sepúlveda
72'
⚽Agustín Cardozo
· ast. Marcelino Moreno
74'
77'
Alejandro Tobar
/
Rodney Redes
77'
Michael Estrada
/
Deyverson
77'
Ruddy Mina
/
Jeison Medina
Marcelino Moreno
/ Franco Watson
85'
Pre-match prediction
46.4%
Lanus ←
34.36%
X
19.23%
LDU
we assigned to the actual result (Lanus)
46.4%
(medium confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
0.91
0.86
-0.05
0.47
0.26
-0.21
Lanus dominated by xG (0.86 vs 0.26).
The final result reflects the playing dominance.
The model's xG estimates were accurate.
Lineups
26
G
6
Sasha Marcich
D
Sasha Marcich
D
13
J. Canale
D
J. Canale
D
24
Carlos Izquierdoz
D
Carlos Izquierdoz
D
33
T. Guidara
D
T. Guidara
D
17
Agustín Medina
M
Agustín Medina
M
5
Felipe Peña Biafore
72'
M
Felipe Peña Biafore
72'
M
77
Lucas Besozzi
62'
M
Lucas Besozzi
62'
M
10
Marcelino Moreno
1 👟
85'
M
Marcelino Moreno
1 👟
85'
M
11
Eduardo Salvio
72'
M
Eduardo Salvio
72'
M
23
R. Carrera
62'
F
R. Carrera
62'
F
Bench
30
Agustín Cardozo
1 ⚽
18'
M
Agustín Cardozo
1 ⚽
18'
M
25
D. Aquino
28'
F
D. Aquino
28'
F
27
Facundo Sánchez
D
Facundo Sánchez
D
8
Franco Watson
10'
M
Franco Watson
10'
M
4
Gonzalo Perez
D
Gonzalo Perez
D
16
Matías Sepúlveda
18'
M
Matías Sepúlveda
18'
M
35
Ronaldo De Jesus
D
Ronaldo De Jesus
D
9
Walter Bou
F
Walter Bou
F
19
Yoshan Valois
28'
F
Yoshan Valois
28'
F
1
G. Valle
G
G. Valle
G
33
Leonel Quiñónez
D
Leonel Quiñónez
D
44
L. Segovia
D
L. Segovia
D
30
Gian Franco Allala
D
Gian Franco Allala
D
23
Yerlin Quinonez
M
Yerlin Quinonez
M
8
Jesús Pretell
M
Jesús Pretell
M
15
G. Villamíl
M
G. Villamíl
M
14
José Quintero
M
José Quintero
M
7
Rodney Redes
77'
F
Rodney Redes
77'
F
16
Deyverson
77'
F
Deyverson
77'
F
9
Jeison Medina
77'
F
Jeison Medina
77'
F
Bench
99
Alejandro Tobar
13'
M
Alejandro Tobar
13'
M
10
Alexander Alvarado
M
Alexander Alvarado
M
32
Edison Gomez
M
Edison Gomez
M
26
Josue Caicedo
D
Josue Caicedo
D
5
Kevin Minda
M
Kevin Minda
M
11
Michael Estrada
13'
F
Michael Estrada
13'
F
25
Patrick Ortiz
M
Patrick Ortiz
M
Best on the pitch
Marcelino Moreno
M · Lanus
7.90
1 👟
3 shots
· 29 pass
J. Canale
D · Lanus
7.50
· 49 pass
Agustín Medina
M · Lanus
7.50
· 71 pass
Carlos Izquierdoz
D · Lanus
7.30
1 shots
· 74 pass
Leonel Quiñónez
D · LDU
7.30
· 57 pass
G. Valle
G · LDU
7.30
· 37 pass
Lanus — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | 90 | 7.20 | — | — | — | 18 | 13% | — | — | — | |
| Sasha Marcich | D | 90 | 7.00 | — | — | — | 34 | 23% | 2 | — | — |
| J. Canale | D | 90 | 7.50 | — | — | — | 49 | 47% | 2 | — | — |
| Carlos Izquierdoz | D | 90 | 7.30 | — | — | 1 | 74 | 70% | — | 1 | — |
| T. Guidara | D | 90 | 7.20 | — | — | — | 47 | 38% | 6 | 1 | — |
| Agustín Medina | M | 90 | 7.50 | — | — | — | 71 | 55% | 4 | — | — |
| Felipe Peña Biafore | M | 72 | 7.00 | — | — | 1 | 50 | 43% | 2 | — | — |
| Lucas Besozzi | M | 62 | 7.00 | — | — | — | 18 | 15% | — | — | — |
| Marcelino Moreno | M | 85 | 7.90 | — | 1 | 3 | 29 | 21% | 1 | — | — |
| Eduardo Salvio | M | 72 | 6.90 | — | — | 2 | 28 | 22% | — | — | — |
| R. Carrera | F | 62 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 13 | 9% | 1 | 1 | — |
| Agustín Cardozo | M | 18 | 7.20 | 1 | — | 1 | 6 | 5% | — | — | — |
| D. Aquino | F | 28 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 9 | 8% | — | — | — |
| Franco Watson | M | 10 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 5 | 3% | — | — | — |
| Matías Sepúlveda | M | 18 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 7 | 4% | 3 | — | — |
| Yoshan Valois | F | 28 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 9 | 5% | 1 | — | — |
LDU de Quito — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G. Valle | G | 90 | 7.30 | — | — | — | 37 | 29% | — | — | — |
| Leonel Quiñónez | D | 90 | 7.30 | — | — | — | 57 | 48% | 3 | — | — |
| L. Segovia | D | 90 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 43 | 38% | 2 | — | — |
| Gian Franco Allala | D | 90 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 35 | 32% | — | 1 | — |
| Yerlin Quinonez | M | 90 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 31 | 25% | 4 | 1 | — |
| Jesús Pretell | M | 90 | 7.00 | — | — | 1 | 43 | 36% | 6 | — | — |
| G. Villamíl | M | 90 | 6.20 | — | — | 1 | 30 | 24% | 2 | — | — |
| José Quintero | M | 90 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 28 | 14% | 1 | — | — |
| Rodney Redes | F | 77 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 14 | 9% | 1 | — | — |
| Deyverson | F | 77 | 7.00 | — | — | 2 | 22 | 11% | — | — | — |
| Jeison Medina | F | 77 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 22 | 16% | 1 | 1 | — |
| Alejandro Tobar | M | 13 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 13 | 11% | — | — | — |
| Michael Estrada | F | 13 | 6.30 | — | — | 1 | 2 | 2% | — | — | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Lanus vs LDU de Quito?
The final score was Lanus 1–0 LDU de Quito.
What did the model predict before Lanus vs LDU de Quito?
The model assigned 46% probability to a Lanus win, 34% to a draw, and 19% to an LDU de Quito win.