Copa Libertadores
· Group Stage - 3
April 29, 2026 00:00
Agustín Cardozo
(ast. Marcelino Moreno)
74'
The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Lanus a 46% win probability (draw 34%, LDU de Quito 19%). The final result was Lanus 1–0 LDU de Quito. In 1 previous meetings, Lanus have won 0 times, with 0 draws and 1 wins for LDU de Quito.
Match statistics
8
Total shots
5
5
Shots on target
1
0.86
Actual xG
0.26
1
Saves
4
55%
Possession
45%
6
Corners
4
22
Tackles
20
3
🟨 Yellow cards
3
Match Events
12'
Yerlin Quinonez
Tomás Guidara
15'
Ramiro Carrera
45'+4
45'+5
Gian Franco Allala
Carlos Izquierdoz
53'
58'
Jeison Medina
Ramiro Carrera
/ Yoshan Valois
62'
Lucas Besozzi
/ Dylan Aquino
62'
Felipe Peña Biafore
/ Agustín Cardozo
72'
Eduardo Salvio
/ Matías Sepúlveda
72'
⚽Agustín Cardozo
· ast. Marcelino Moreno
74'
77'
Alejandro Tobar
/
Rodney Redes
77'
Michael Estrada
/
Deyverson
77'
Ruddy Mina
/
Jeison Medina
Marcelino Moreno
/ Franco Watson
85'
Pre-match prediction
46.4%
Lanus ←
34.36%
X
19.23%
LDU
we assigned to the actual result (Lanus)
46.4%
(medium confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
0.91
0.86
-0.05
0.47
0.26
-0.21
Lanus dominated by xG (0.86 vs 0.26).
The final result reflects the playing dominance.
The model's xG estimates were accurate.
Lineups
26
G
6
S. Marcich
D
S. Marcich
D
13
José Canale
D
José Canale
D
24
C. Izquierdoz
D
C. Izquierdoz
D
33
T. Guidara
D
T. Guidara
D
17
A. Medina
M
A. Medina
M
5
F. Peña
72'
M
F. Peña
72'
M
77
L. Besozzi
62'
M
L. Besozzi
62'
M
10
M. Moreno
1 👟
85'
M
M. Moreno
1 👟
85'
M
11
E. Salvio
72'
M
E. Salvio
72'
M
23
R. Carrera
62'
F
R. Carrera
62'
F
Bench
30
A. Cardozo
1 ⚽
18'
M
A. Cardozo
1 ⚽
18'
M
25
D. Aquino
28'
F
D. Aquino
28'
F
27
F. Sánchez
D
F. Sánchez
D
8
F. Watson
10'
M
F. Watson
10'
M
4
G. Pérez
D
G. Pérez
D
16
Matías Sepúlveda
18'
M
Matías Sepúlveda
18'
M
35
R. De Jesús
D
R. De Jesús
D
9
W. Bou
F
W. Bou
F
19
Y. Valois
28'
F
Y. Valois
28'
F
1
Gonzalo Valle
G
Gonzalo Valle
G
33
Leonel Enrique Quiñónez Padilla
D
Leonel Enrique Quiñónez Padilla
D
44
L. Segovia
D
L. Segovia
D
30
G. Allala
D
G. Allala
D
23
Yerlin Quinonez
M
Yerlin Quinonez
M
8
Jesús Pretell
M
Jesús Pretell
M
15
G. Villamíl
M
G. Villamíl
M
14
José Quintero
M
José Quintero
M
7
Rodney Redes
77'
F
16
Deyverson
77'
F
Deyverson
77'
F
9
J. Medina
77'
F
J. Medina
77'
F
Bench
10
Alexander Antonio Alvarado Carriel
M
Alexander Antonio Alvarado Carriel
M
99
C. Tobar
13'
M
C. Tobar
13'
M
32
Edison Gomez
M
Edison Gomez
M
26
Josue Caicedo
D
Josue Caicedo
D
5
K. Minda
M
K. Minda
M
11
M. Estrada
13'
F
M. Estrada
13'
F
25
Patrick Ortiz
M
Patrick Ortiz
M
Best on the pitch
M. Moreno
M · Lanus
7.90
1 👟
3 shots
· 29 pass
José Canale
D · Lanus
7.50
· 49 pass
A. Medina
M · Lanus
7.50
· 71 pass
C. Izquierdoz
D · Lanus
7.30
1 shots
· 74 pass
Leonel Enrique Quiñónez Padilla
D · LDU
7.30
· 57 pass
Gonzalo Valle
G · LDU
7.30
· 37 pass
Lanus — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | 90 | 7.20 | — | — | — | 18 | 13% | — | — | — | |
| S. Marcich | D | 90 | 7.00 | — | — | — | 34 | 23% | 2 | — | — |
| José Canale | D | 90 | 7.50 | — | — | — | 49 | 47% | 2 | — | — |
| C. Izquierdoz | D | 90 | 7.30 | — | — | 1 | 74 | 70% | — | 1 | — |
| T. Guidara | D | 90 | 7.20 | — | — | — | 47 | 38% | 6 | 1 | — |
| A. Medina | M | 90 | 7.50 | — | — | — | 71 | 55% | 4 | — | — |
| F. Peña | M | 72 | 7.00 | — | — | 1 | 50 | 43% | 2 | — | — |
| L. Besozzi | M | 62 | 7.00 | — | — | — | 18 | 15% | — | — | — |
| M. Moreno | M | 85 | 7.90 | — | 1 | 3 | 29 | 21% | 1 | — | — |
| E. Salvio | M | 72 | 6.90 | — | — | 2 | 28 | 22% | — | — | — |
| R. Carrera | F | 62 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 13 | 9% | 1 | 1 | — |
| A. Cardozo | M | 18 | 7.20 | 1 | — | 1 | 6 | 5% | — | — | — |
| D. Aquino | F | 28 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 9 | 8% | — | — | — |
| F. Watson | M | 10 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 5 | 3% | — | — | — |
| Matías Sepúlveda | M | 18 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 7 | 4% | 3 | — | — |
| Y. Valois | F | 28 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 9 | 5% | 1 | — | — |
LDU de Quito — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gonzalo Valle | G | 90 | 7.30 | — | — | — | 37 | 29% | — | — | — |
| Leonel Enrique Quiñónez Padilla | D | 90 | 7.30 | — | — | — | 57 | 48% | 3 | — | — |
| L. Segovia | D | 90 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 43 | 38% | 2 | — | — |
| G. Allala | D | 90 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 35 | 32% | — | 1 | — |
| Yerlin Quinonez | M | 90 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 31 | 25% | 4 | 1 | — |
| Jesús Pretell | M | 90 | 7.00 | — | — | 1 | 43 | 36% | 6 | — | — |
| G. Villamíl | M | 90 | 6.20 | — | — | 1 | 30 | 24% | 2 | — | — |
| José Quintero | M | 90 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 28 | 14% | 1 | — | — |
| Rodney Redes | F | 77 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 14 | 9% | 1 | — | — |
| Deyverson | F | 77 | 7.00 | — | — | 2 | 22 | 11% | — | — | — |
| J. Medina | F | 77 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 22 | 16% | 1 | 1 | — |
| C. Tobar | M | 13 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 13 | 11% | — | — | — |
| M. Estrada | F | 13 | 6.30 | — | — | 1 | 2 | 2% | — | — | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Lanus vs LDU de Quito?
The final score was Lanus 1–0 LDU de Quito.
What did the model predict before Lanus vs LDU de Quito?
The model assigned 46% probability to a Lanus win, 34% to a draw, and 19% to an LDU de Quito win.