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Bundesliga · Championship Group - 27 April 19, 2026 17:00 Raiffeisen Arena, Linz
Lask Linz
#3 · 19 pts
1 – 1
Final score
Sturm Graz
#4 · 18 pts
S. Kalajdzic (ast. G. Bello) 68'
(pen.) 10' O. Kiteishvili
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The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Lask Linz a 45% win probability (draw 23%, Sturm Graz 31%). The final result was Lask Linz 1–1 Sturm Graz. In 4 previous meetings, Lask Linz have won 1 times, with 1 draws and 2 wins for Sturm Graz.

Match statistics
24
Total shots
3
5
Shots on target
2
3.41
Actual xG
1.12
1
Saves
4
63%
Possession
37%
8
Corners
2
17
Tackles
18
0
🟨 Yellow cards
3
Match Events
10'
(pen.) O. Kiteishvili⚽
44'
J. Hodl
49'
N. Geyrhofer / J. Mitchell ↕
51'
A. Vallci
59'
D. Khudyakov
↕ I. Coulibaly / G. Bello
65'
⚽S. Kalajdzic · ast. G. Bello
68'
70'
G. Mamageishvili / M. Malone ↕
70'
A. Malic / J. Hodl ↕
80'
E. Karic / J. Gazibegovic ↕
↕ M. Usor / C. Lang
86'
Pre-match prediction
45.09%
Lask
23.64%
X ←
31.27%
Sturm
we assigned to the actual result (Draw) 23.64% (low confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
Lask
1.88
3.41
+1.53
Sturm
1.56
1.12
-0.44
Lask Linz dominated by xG (3.41 vs 1.12). The final result does not reflect the playing dominance. The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
League Table
#Team GPts
1 Rapid Vienna Rapid Vienna 10 27
2 Red Bull Salzburg Red Bull Salzburg 10 24
3 Lask Linz Lask Linz 10 19
4 Sturm Graz Sturm Graz 10 18
5 Ried Ried 10 15
6 TSV Hartberg TSV Hartberg 10 14
7 WSG Wattens WSG Wattens 10 12
8 Grazer AK Grazer AK 10 10
9 SCR Altach SCR Altach 10 9
10 Austria Lustenau Austria Lustenau 10 8
11 Austria Vienna Austria Vienna 10 7
12 Wolfsberger AC Wolfsberger AC 10 5
Lineups
Lask Linz Lask Linz 3-4-1-2
1
G 7.50
16 A. Andrade A. Andrade D 7.20
43 Alemão Alemão D 6.90
48 M. Cissé M. Cissé D 6.70
6 M. Bogarde M. Bogarde M 7.90
30 S. Horvath S. Horvath M 7.90
4 Ismaila Coulibaly Ismaila Coulibaly 65' M 6.60
20 K. Jørgensen K. Jørgensen M 6.30
10 S. Kalajdzic S. Kalajdzic 1 ⚽ F 8.30
7 S. Adeniran S. Adeniran F 6.90
8 M. Usor M. Usor 86' F 7.90
Bench
27 C. Lang C. Lang 11' F 6.30
2 G. Bello G. Bello 1 👟 25' D 7.70
11 M. Entrup M. Entrup F
3 X. Mbuyamba X. Mbuyamba D
Sturm Graz Sturm Graz 3-4-2-1
53 D. Khudyakov D. Khudyakov G 7.90
30 P. Koller P. Koller D 6.90
2 J. Mitchell J. Mitchell 49' D 6.60
5 A. Vallci A. Vallci D 6.50
22 J. Gazibegović J. Gazibegović 80' M 6.90
80 Ryan Fosso Ryan Fosso M 6.30
4 J. Gorenc Stankovič J. Gorenc Stankovič M 7.30
43 Jacob Peter Hödl Jacob Peter Hödl 70' M 5.90
77 M. Malone M. Malone 70' F 6.00
10 O. Kiteishvili O. Kiteishvili 1 ⚽ F 6.90
20 S. Jatta S. Jatta F 6.50
Bench
11 A. Kayombo A. Kayombo F
23 A. Malic A. Malic 20' D 6.90
17 E. Karić E. Karić 10' D 6.90
15 G. Mamageishvili G. Mamageishvili 20' M 6.90
39 Luca Weinhandl Luca Weinhandl M
Best on the pitch
S. Kalajdzic
S. Kalajdzic
F · Lask
8.30
1 ⚽
3 shots · 23 pass
M. Bogarde
M. Bogarde
M · Lask
7.90
· 57 pass
S. Horvath
S. Horvath
M · Lask
7.90
1 shots · 49 pass
M. Usor
M. Usor
F · Lask
7.90
1 shots · 23 pass
D. Khudyakov
D. Khudyakov
G · Sturm
7.90
· 32 pass
G. Bello
G. Bello
D · Lask
7.70
1 👟
1 shots · 11 pass
Lask Linz Lask Linz — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
G 90 7.50 — — — 27 21% — — —
A. Andrade D 90 7.20 — — 1 61 49% — — —
Alemão D 90 6.90 — — 2 40 38% 3 — —
M. Cissé D 90 6.70 — — 3 48 39% 1 — —
M. Bogarde M 90 7.90 — — — 57 43% 3 — —
S. Horvath M 90 7.90 — — 1 49 47% 5 — —
Ismaila Coulibaly M 65 6.60 — — 1 33 29% 1 — —
K. Jørgensen M 90 6.30 — — 4 36 27% — — —
S. Kalajdzic F 90 8.30 1 — 3 23 17% 2 — —
S. Adeniran F 90 6.90 — — 7 19 17% 1 — —
M. Usor F 86 7.90 — — 1 23 15% — — —
C. Lang F 11 6.30 — — — 4 4% — — —
G. Bello D 25 7.70 — 1 1 11 10% 1 — —
Sturm Graz Sturm Graz — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
D. Khudyakov G 90 7.90 — — — 32 17% — 1 —
P. Koller D 90 6.90 — — — 33 23% 2 — —
J. Mitchell D 49 6.60 — — — 7 6% — — —
A. Vallci D 90 6.50 — — — 23 14% 2 1 —
J. Gazibegović M 80 6.90 — — — 16 11% 2 — —
Ryan Fosso M 90 6.30 — — — 25 15% — — —
J. Gorenc Stankovič M 90 7.30 — — — 29 14% 3 — —
Jacob Peter Hödl M 70 5.90 — — — 19 6% 3 1 —
M. Malone F 70 6.00 — — 1 10 8% 1 — —
O. Kiteishvili F 90 6.90 1 — 2 20 16% 2 — —
S. Jatta F 90 6.50 — — — 15 9% 1 — —
A. Malic D 20 6.90 — — — 12 7% 1 — —
E. Karić D 10 6.90 — — — 6 4% — — —
G. Mamageishvili M 20 6.90 — — — 4 4% 1 — —
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Lask Linz vs Sturm Graz?
The final score was Lask Linz 1–1 Sturm Graz.
What did the model predict before Lask Linz vs Sturm Graz?
The model assigned 45% probability to a Lask Linz win, 23% to a draw, and 31% to an Sturm Graz win.