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Latvia - Cyprus

UEFA Nations League September 28, 2026 20:45 Denka Big Swan Stadium, Niigata
Latvia
#1 · 0 pts
vs
Cyprus
#4 · 0 pts
⚡ Pre-match analysis
43.38%
Win
Latvia
21.84%
Draw
34.77%
Win
Cyprus
1.89
Expected xG
1.73

Market probabilities

Most likely result 1–1 (8.78%)
1X2 Result
1 43%
X 22%
2 35%
Double Chance
1X 65%
X2 57%
12 78%
Over / Under
Over 1.5 91%
Over 2.5 82%
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The ForzaPitch prediction gives Latvia a 43% win probability, against 21% for a draw and 34% for Cyprus. Expected goals are 1.9 for Latvia and 1.7 for Cyprus (total 3.6), with a 91% probability of Over 1.5 goals. The most likely scoreline is 1–1 at 8.78% probability.

Season Stats

Latvia
3W 1D 4L
Cyprus
2W 0D 4L
Averages per game
0.8
Goals
0.7
1.4
Conceded
2.5
2.6
Shots OT
3.3
4.0
Corners
4.5
48%
Poss.
40%
Percentages
50%
O 1.5
83%
38%
O 2.5
83%
38%
BTTS
33%
38%
Clean Sht
17%
ℹ Based on the last 8 matches in UEFA Nations League. Bars use fixed scales (goals max 3.5, percentages 0–100%).

Venue Form

Goals signal (venue avg)
17%
O 3.5
29%
BTTS
Latvia
2W 0D 2L · at home
Cyprus
1W 0D 2L · away
0.8
gls/g
0.7
1.2
Conceded
2.3
50%
Win %
33%
50%
Win or Draw
33%
50%
O 1.5
67%
50%
O 2.5
67%
0%
O 3.5
33%
25%
BTTS
33%
50%
Clean Sht
33%
25%
Failed to Score
33%
last 4
ℹ Home team's record in home matches only · Away team's record in away matches only.

Score Matrix

↕ Latvia Cyprus →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0 2.7% 4.7% 4.0% 2.3% 1.0% 0.3%
1 5.1% 8.8% 7.6% 4.4% 1.9% 0.7%
2 4.8% 8.3% 7.2% 4.1% 1.8% 0.6%
3 3.0% 5.2% 4.5% 2.6% 1.1% 0.4%
4 1.4% 2.5% 2.1% 1.2% 0.5% 0.2%
5 0.5% 0.9% 0.8% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1%

Recent form

Latvia Latvia
W Gibraltar 1–0
W Gibraltar 0–1
L Armenia 1–2
L FYR Macedonia 1–0
D Faroe Islands 1–1
Cyprus Cyprus
L Romania 4–1
W Lithuania 2–1
L Kosovo 3–0
L Romania 0–3
L Kosovo 0–4
Away clean sheet (120 days) 33%

Playing profile

Latvia Latvia
Attack
27
Defence
72
Form
55
Cyprus Cyprus
Attack
39
Defence
74
Form
24
Indices on a 0–100 scale calculated by the model

UEFA Nations League , League C, Group 2

# Team G Pts
1 Latvia Latvia 0 0
2 Montenegro Montenegro 0 0
3 Armenia Armenia 0 0
4 Cyprus Cyprus 0 0

What's at stake · UEFA Nations League , League C, Group 2

Top 2 advance to the next round

Latvia Cyprus
Current #1 #4
→ Latvia #1 #4
→ Draw #1 #2
→ Cyprus #2 #1

Projected ranking after this match only. Goal difference tiebreakers not applied.

Frequently Asked Questions
Who will win Latvia vs Cyprus?
The model gives Latvia a 43% win probability, 21% for a draw, and 34% for an Cyprus win.
How many goals are expected in Latvia vs Cyprus?
Expected goals: Latvia 1.9, Cyprus 1.7 (total 3.6). Probability of over 1.5 goals: 91%.
What is the most likely score in Latvia vs Cyprus?
1–1 is the most probable final score, with an estimated probability of 8.78%.