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Latvia - Montenegro

UEFA Nations League October 02, 2026 20:45 Denka Big Swan Stadium, Niigata
Latvia
#1 · 0 pts
vs
Montenegro
#2 · 0 pts
⚡ Pre-match analysis
44.35%
Win
Latvia
19.5%
Draw
36.15%
Win
Montenegro
2.32
Expected xG
2.16

Market probabilities

Most likely result 2–2 (7.15%)
1X2 Result
1 44%
X 20%
2 36%
Double Chance
1X 64%
X2 56%
12 81%
Over / Under
Over 1.5 93%
Over 2.5 84%
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The ForzaPitch prediction gives Latvia a 44% win probability, against 19% for a draw and 36% for Montenegro. Expected goals are 2.3 for Latvia and 2.2 for Montenegro (total 4.5), with a 93% probability of Over 1.5 goals. The most likely scoreline is 2–2 at 7.15% probability.

Season Stats

Latvia
3W 1D 4L
Montenegro
1W 0D 5L
Averages per game
0.8
Goals
0.7
1.4
Conceded
1.5
2.6
Shots OT
3.3
4.0
Corners
5.3
48%
Poss.
43%
Percentages
50%
O 1.5
67%
38%
O 2.5
33%
38%
BTTS
33%
38%
Clean Sht
0%
ℹ Based on the last 8 matches in UEFA Nations League. Bars use fixed scales (goals max 3.5, percentages 0–100%).

Venue Form

Goals signal (venue avg)
0%
O 3.5
13%
BTTS
Latvia
2W 0D 2L · at home
Montenegro
0W 0D 3L · away
0.8
gls/g
0.0
1.2
Conceded
1.3
50%
Win %
0%
50%
Win or Draw
0%
50%
O 1.5
33%
50%
O 2.5
0%
0%
O 3.5
0%
25%
BTTS
0%
50%
Clean Sht
0%
25%
Failed to Score
100%
last 4
ℹ Home team's record in home matches only · Away team's record in away matches only.

Score Matrix

↕ Latvia Montenegro →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0 1.1% 2.4% 2.6% 1.9% 1.0% 0.4%
1 2.6% 5.7% 6.1% 4.4% 2.4% 1.0%
2 3.0% 6.6% 7.1% 5.1% 2.8% 1.2%
3 2.4% 5.1% 5.5% 4.0% 2.1% 0.9%
4 1.4% 3.0% 3.2% 2.3% 1.2% 0.5%
5 0.6% 1.4% 1.5% 1.1% 0.6% 0.2%

Recent form

Latvia Latvia
W Gibraltar 1–0
W Gibraltar 0–1
L Armenia 1–2
L FYR Macedonia 1–0
D Faroe Islands 1–1
Montenegro Montenegro
W Türkiye 3–1
L Iceland 0–2
L Wales 1–0
L Türkiye 1–0
L Wales 1–2
Away clean sheet (120 days) 23%

Playing profile

Latvia Latvia
Attack
27
Defence
72
Form
55
Montenegro Montenegro
Attack
45
Defence
60
Form
43
Indices on a 0–100 scale calculated by the model

UEFA Nations League , League C, Group 2

# Team G Pts
1 Latvia Latvia 0 0
2 Montenegro Montenegro 0 0
3 Armenia Armenia 0 0
4 Cyprus Cyprus 0 0

What's at stake · UEFA Nations League , League C, Group 2

Top 2 advance to the next round

Latvia Montenegro
Current #1 #2
→ Latvia #1 #2
→ Draw #1 #2
→ Montenegro #2 #1

Projected ranking after this match only. Goal difference tiebreakers not applied.

Frequently Asked Questions
Who will win Latvia vs Montenegro?
The model gives Latvia a 44% win probability, 19% for a draw, and 36% for an Montenegro win.
How many goals are expected in Latvia vs Montenegro?
Expected goals: Latvia 2.3, Montenegro 2.2 (total 4.5). Probability of over 1.5 goals: 93%.
What is the most likely score in Latvia vs Montenegro?
2–2 is the most probable final score, with an estimated probability of 7.15%.