Serie A
· Regular Season - 31
April 04, 2026 20:45
✗Model wrong — prediction Lazio, result Draw
T. Noslin
(ast. K. Taylor)
77'
15'
E. Delprato
The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Lazio a 54% win probability (draw 27%, Parma 17%). The final result was Lazio 1–1 Parma. In 2 previous meetings, Lazio have won 2 times, with 0 draws and 0 wins for Parma.
Match statistics
6
Total shots
5
3
Shots on target
4
0.40
Actual xG
0.44
3
Saves
2
61%
Possession
39%
7
Corners
2
9
Tackles
10
1
🟨 Yellow cards
2
Match Events
15'
E. Delprato⚽
27'
Gabriel Strefezza
32'
Mateo Pellegrino
A. Marusic
/ M. Lazzari
57'
G. Isaksen
/ M. Cancellieri
58'
Pedro
/ T. Noslin
58'
D. Maldini
/ B. Dia
65'
71'
N. Estevez
/
H. Nicolussi Caviglia
⚽T. Noslin
· ast. K. Taylor
77'
80'
C. Ordonez
/
A. Bernabe
81'
G. Oristanio
/
G. Strefezza
85'
Tijjani Noslin
87'
90'+2
O. Sorensen
/
M. Keita
90'+2
F. Carboni
/
S. Britschgi
Pre-match prediction
54.85%
Lazio
27.22%
X ←
17.93%
Parma
✗ Wrong prediction —
we assigned to the actual result (Draw)
27.22%
(low confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
1.42
0.40
-1.02
0.69
0.44
-0.25
xG dominance was balanced (0.40 – 0.44).
The final result reflects the playing dominance.
The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
Lineups
40
G
17
Nuno Tavares
D
Nuno Tavares
D
25
O. Provstgaard
D
O. Provstgaard
D
13
A. Romagnoli
D
A. Romagnoli
D
77
Adam Marušić
57'
D
Adam Marušić
57'
D
24
K. Taylor
1 👟
M
K. Taylor
1 👟
M
32
D. Cataldi
M
D. Cataldi
M
7
M
9
Pedro
58'
F
Pedro
58'
F
27
D. Maldini
65'
F
D. Maldini
65'
F
18
G. Isaksen
58'
F
G. Isaksen
58'
F
Bench
19
B. Dia
25'
F
B. Dia
25'
F
23
E. Hysaj
D
E. Hysaj
D
22
M. Cancellieri
32'
F
M. Cancellieri
32'
F
29
M. Lazzari
33'
M
M. Lazzari
33'
M
26
T. Bašić
M
T. Bašić
M
14
T. Noslin
1 ⚽
32'
F
T. Noslin
1 ⚽
32'
F
31
Z. Suzuki
G
Z. Suzuki
G
5
D
39
A. Circati
D
A. Circati
D
15
E. Del Prato
1 ⚽
D
E. Del Prato
1 ⚽
D
14
E. Valeri
M
E. Valeri
M
16
M. Keita
89'
M
M. Keita
89'
M
41
H. Nicolussi
71'
M
H. Nicolussi
71'
M
10
Adrián Bernabé
80'
M
Adrián Bernabé
80'
M
27
S. Britschgi
89'
M
S. Britschgi
89'
M
7
Gabriel Strefezza
81'
F
Gabriel Strefezza
81'
F
9
Mateo Pellegrino
F
Mateo Pellegrino
F
Bench
3
A. N'Diaye
D
A. N'Diaye
D
29
F. Carboni
1'
D
F. Carboni
1'
D
23
N. Elphege
F
N. Elphege
F
Best on the pitch
T. Noslin
F · Lazio
7.30
1 ⚽
1 shots
· 17 pass
A. Circati
D · Parma
7.30
· 56 pass
Gabriel Strefezza
F · Parma
7.20
1 shots
· 28 pass
E. Del Prato
D · Parma
7.20
1 ⚽
1 shots
· 31 pass
K. Taylor
M · Lazio
7.20
1 👟
1 shots
· 58 pass
O. Provstgaard
D · Lazio
7.20
· 91 pass
Lazio — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | 90 | 7.00 | — | — | — | 16 | 14% | — | — | — | |
| Nuno Tavares | D | 90 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 70 | 60% | 3 | — | — |
| O. Provstgaard | D | 90 | 7.20 | — | — | — | 91 | 88% | 1 | — | — |
| A. Romagnoli | D | 90 | 7.20 | — | — | 1 | 86 | 84% | — | — | — |
| Adam Marušić | D | 57 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 46 | 42% | 1 | — | — |
| K. Taylor | M | 90 | 7.20 | — | 1 | 1 | 58 | 53% | 2 | — | — |
| D. Cataldi | M | 90 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 38 | 38% | — | — | — |
| M | 90 | 6.50 | — | — | 2 | 43 | 43% | 1 | — | — | |
| Pedro | F | 58 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 42 | 36% | 1 | — | — |
| D. Maldini | F | 65 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 21 | 19% | — | — | — |
| G. Isaksen | F | 58 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 17 | 17% | — | — | — |
| B. Dia | F | 25 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 4 | 4% | — | — | — |
| M. Cancellieri | F | 32 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 14 | 11% | — | — | — |
| M. Lazzari | M | 33 | 6.90 | — | — | 1 | 13 | 11% | — | — | — |
| T. Noslin | F | 32 | 7.30 | 1 | — | 1 | 17 | 14% | — | 1 | — |
Parma — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Z. Suzuki | G | 90 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 40 | 28% | — | — | — |
| D | 90 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 42 | 39% | 1 | — | — | |
| A. Circati | D | 90 | 7.30 | — | — | — | 56 | 56% | — | — | — |
| E. Del Prato | D | 90 | 7.20 | 1 | — | 1 | 31 | 25% | — | — | — |
| E. Valeri | M | 90 | 7.00 | — | — | 1 | 21 | 19% | 2 | — | — |
| M. Keita | M | 89 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 37 | 34% | — | — | — |
| H. Nicolussi | M | 71 | 6.90 | — | — | 1 | 33 | 29% | 3 | — | — |
| Adrián Bernabé | M | 80 | 6.60 | — | — | 1 | 41 | 33% | — | — | — |
| S. Britschgi | M | 89 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 24 | 17% | — | — | — |
| Gabriel Strefezza | F | 81 | 7.20 | — | — | 1 | 28 | 24% | 3 | 1 | — |
| Mateo Pellegrino | F | 90 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 17 | 10% | 1 | 1 | — |
| F. Carboni | D | 1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Lazio vs Parma?
The final score was Lazio 1–1 Parma.
What did the model predict before Lazio vs Parma?
The model assigned 54% probability to a Lazio win, 27% to a draw, and 17% to an Parma win.