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Ligue 1 · Regular Season - 1 August 22, 2026 20:45 MMArena, Le Mans
Le Mans
#14 · 2 pts
2 – 2
Final score
Stade Brestois 29
#7 · 5 pts
D. Gueye (ast. L. Mafouta) 45'+2
L. Mafouta (ast. A. Bourabaa) 55'
31' (ast. K. Doumbia) R. Del Castillo
62' K. Doumbia
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The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Le Mans a 33% win probability (draw 32%, Stade Brestois 29 33%). The final result was Le Mans 2–2 Stade Brestois 29.

Match statistics
7
Total shots
12
5
Shots on target
5
0.69
Actual xG
1.65
3
Saves
3
51%
Possession
49%
0
Corners
4
10
Tackles
14
1
🟨 Yellow cards
1
Match Events
31'
ast. K. Doumbia · R. Del Castillo⚽
43'
L. Ajorque
⚽D. Gueye · ast. L. Mafouta
45'+2
A. Lauray
51'
⚽L. Mafouta · ast. A. Bourabaa
55'
62'
K. Doumbia⚽
↕ L. Mafouta / E. Colas
63'
↕ A. Lauray / L. Bretelle
63'
63'
M. Diambou / J. Nonge ↕
71'
M. Balde / R. Del Castillo ↕
71'
A. Camblan / P. Mboup ↕
↕ A. Bourabaa / B. Brahimi
72'
↕ D. Gueye / W. Harhouz
72'
↕ Y. Larouci / L. Calodat
81'
89'
L. C. Laine M. / K. Doumbia ↕
Pre-match prediction
33.76%
Le
32.66%
X ←
33.58%
Stade
we assigned to the actual result (Draw) 32.66% (low confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
Le
2.66
0.69
-1.97
Stade
0.30
1.65
+1.35
Stade Brestois 29 dominated by xG (1.65 vs 0.69). The final result does not reflect the playing dominance. The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
League Table
#Team GPts
1 Monaco Monaco 4 10
2 Rennes Rennes 4 10
3 Paris FC Paris FC 3 7
4 Lyon Lyon 3 7
5 Lille Lille 3 7
6 Strasbourg Strasbourg 4 7
7 Stade Brestois 29 Stade Brestois 29 3 5
8 Lorient Lorient 3 4
9 Estac Troyes Estac Troyes 3 4
10 Lens Lens 3 3
11 Marseille Marseille 4 3
12 Angers Angers 3 3
13 Paris Saint Germain Paris Saint Germain 3 2
14 Le Mans Le Mans 3 2
15 Nice Nice 3 2
16 Le Havre Le Havre 3 1
17 Toulouse Toulouse 3 1
18 Auxerre Auxerre 3 0
Lineups
Le Mans Le Mans 3-5-2
98 Nicolas Kocik Nicolas Kocik 67' G 6.60
26 R. Bamba R. Bamba 67' D 6.50
21 Théo Eyoum Théo Eyoum 67' D 6.20
15 N. Boissé N. Boissé 67' D 6.60
76 Y. Larouci Y. Larouci 67' M 6.20
9 A. Rabillard A. Rabillard 67' M 6.20
8 A. Lauray A. Lauray 63' M 6.30
11 A. Bourabaa A. Bourabaa 1 👟 67' M 6.30
18 L. Buadés L. Buadés 67' M 7.20
14 L. Mafouta L. Mafouta 1 ⚽ 1 👟 63' F 7.60
25 D. Guèye D. Guèye 1 ⚽ 67' F 6.90
Bench
7 B. Brahimi B. Brahimi F
19 D. Sidibé D. Sidibé D
1 E. Hatfout E. Hatfout G
28 Erwan Colas Erwan Colas 4' F
29 L. Bretelle L. Bretelle 4' M
22 L. Calodat L. Calodat D
24 Milan Robin Milan Robin M
16 Raúl Torrente Raúl Torrente D
20 William Harhouz William Harhouz F
Stade Brestois 29 Stade Brestois 29 4-2-3-1
1 E. Selvik E. Selvik 67' G 6.50
2 B. Locko B. Locko 67' D 6.30
71 R. Le Guen R. Le Guen 67' D 6.30
29 L. Tousart L. Tousart 67' D 6.20
70 K. Lala K. Lala 67' D 6.50
7 J. Nonge Boende J. Nonge Boende 63' M 6.70
13 J. Chotard J. Chotard 67' M 7.00
9 P. Mboup P. Mboup 67' M 6.00
23 K. Doumbia K. Doumbia 1 ⚽ 1 👟 67' M 7.60
10 R. Del Castillo R. Del Castillo 1 ⚽ 67' M 7.90
19 L. Ajorque L. Ajorque 67' F 6.50
Bench
11 A. Camblan A. Camblan M
4 G. Lloris G. Lloris D
33 Hamidou Makalou Hamidou Makalou M
32 L. C. Laine M. L. C. Laine M. M
20 L. Zogbe L. Zogbe D
17 Mama Baldé Mama Baldé F
6 M. Diambou M. Diambou 4' M
49 Romain Cagnon Romain Cagnon G
Best on the pitch
R. Del Castillo
R. Del Castillo
M · Stade
7.90
1 ⚽
1 shots · 31 pass
K. Doumbia
K. Doumbia
M · Stade
7.60
1 ⚽ 1 👟
2 shots · 35 pass
L. Mafouta
L. Mafouta
F · Le
7.60
1 ⚽ 1 👟
2 shots · 13 pass
L. Buadés
L. Buadés
M · Le
7.20
1 shots · 27 pass
J. Chotard
J. Chotard
M · Stade
7.00
· 37 pass
D. Guèye
D. Guèye
F · Le
6.90
1 ⚽
1 shots · 21 pass
Le Mans Le Mans — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
Nicolas Kocik G 67 6.60 — — — 41 28% — — —
R. Bamba D 67 6.50 — — — 54 50% — — —
Théo Eyoum D 67 6.20 — — — 31 30% 1 — —
N. Boissé D 67 6.60 — — — 35 34% 2 — —
Y. Larouci M 67 6.20 — — 2 25 17% — — —
A. Rabillard M 67 6.20 — — 1 19 14% 1 — —
A. Lauray M 63 6.30 — — — 27 18% 1 1 —
A. Bourabaa M 67 6.30 — 1 — 24 19% 2 — —
L. Buadés M 67 7.20 — — 1 27 20% 2 — —
L. Mafouta F 63 7.60 1 1 2 13 9% — — —
D. Guèye F 67 6.90 1 — 1 21 14% 1 — —
Erwan Colas F 4 — — — — — — — — —
L. Bretelle M 4 — — — — 1 1% — — —
Stade Brestois 29 Stade Brestois 29 — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
E. Selvik G 67 6.50 — — — 16 10% — — —
B. Locko D 67 6.30 — — — 30 25% 2 — —
R. Le Guen D 67 6.30 — — 3 34 30% 1 — —
L. Tousart D 67 6.20 — — 1 29 23% 1 — —
K. Lala D 67 6.50 — — — 36 22% — — —
J. Nonge Boende M 63 6.70 — — — 14 9% 2 — —
J. Chotard M 67 7.00 — — — 37 31% 1 — —
P. Mboup M 67 6.00 — — 2 15 13% 2 — —
K. Doumbia M 67 7.60 1 1 2 35 31% 2 — —
R. Del Castillo M 67 7.90 1 — 1 31 23% 2 — —
L. Ajorque F 67 6.50 — — 3 16 13% — 1 —
M. Diambou M 4 — — — — 3 3% 1 — —
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Le Mans vs Stade Brestois 29?
The final score was Le Mans 2–2 Stade Brestois 29.
What did the model predict before Le Mans vs Stade Brestois 29?
The model assigned 33% probability to a Le Mans win, 32% to a draw, and 33% to an Stade Brestois 29 win.