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Ligue 1 · Regular Season - 7 October 16, 2026 20:45 Stade Marie-Marvingt, Le Mans
Le Mans
#15 · 7 pts
0 – 3
Final score
Toulouse
#11 · 10 pts
46' (ast. Aron Dønnum) Jacen Russell-Rowe
59' Aron Dønnum
87' (ast. Cristian Casseres) Casper Tengstedt
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The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Le Mans a 40% win probability (draw 27%, Toulouse 31%). The final result was Le Mans 0–3 Toulouse.

Match statistics
11
Total shots
13
1
Shots on target
5
0.93
Actual xG
1.83
2
Saves
1
53%
Possession
47%
2
Corners
2
11
Tackles
13
2
🟨 Yellow cards
1
Match Events
46'
ast. Aron Dønnum · Jacen Russell-Rowe⚽
49'
Jacen Russell-Rowe
59'
Aron Dønnum⚽
↕ Yasser Larouci / Lucas Calodat
61'
↕ Dame Gueye / Habib Diallo
61'
↕ Daouda Traore / Bilal Brahimi
61'
64'
Alexis Vossah / Aron Dønnum ↕
↕ Lucas Buades / Rayan Bamba
69'
76'
Julián Vignolo / Jacen Russell-Rowe ↕
↕ Harold Voyer / Noa Boissé
77'
78'
85'
Seny Koumbassa / Rasmus Nicolaisen ↕
87'
ast. Cristian Casseres · Casper Tengstedt⚽
Djibril Sidibé
90'+4
Samuel Yohou
90'
Pre-match prediction
40.89%
Le
27.86%
X
31.25%
Toulouse ←
we assigned to the actual result (Toulouse) 31.25% (low confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
Le
2.55
0.93
-1.62
Toulouse
1.71
1.83
+0.12
Toulouse dominated by xG (1.83 vs 0.93). The final result reflects the playing dominance. The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
League Table
#Team GPts
1 Paris Saint Germain Paris Saint Germain 8 17
2 Rennes Rennes 8 16
3 Lille Lille 8 15
4 Monaco Monaco 8 15
5 Lyon Lyon 8 14
6 Paris FC Paris FC 8 14
7 Lens Lens 8 13
8 Marseille Marseille 8 12
9 Lorient Lorient 8 12
10 Nice Nice 8 11
11 Toulouse Toulouse 8 10
12 Auxerre Auxerre 8 10
13 Stade Brestois 29 Stade Brestois 29 8 9
14 Angers Angers 8 8
15 Le Mans Le Mans 8 7
16 Strasbourg Strasbourg 8 7
17 Estac Troyes Estac Troyes 8 5
18 Le Havre Le Havre 8 2
Lineups
Le Mans Le Mans 3-1-4-2
98 N. Kocik N. Kocik G 5.54
5 H. Voyer H. Voyer 77' D 6.18
17 S. Yohou S. Yohou D 5.69
19 D. Sidibé D. Sidibé D 6.07
29 L. Bretelle L. Bretelle M 6.62
76 Y. Larouci Y. Larouci 61' M 5.75
10 J. Vercruysse J. Vercruysse M 6.71
23 D. Traoré D. Traoré 61' M 6.46
18 L. Buadés L. Buadés 69' M 5.87
14 L. Mafouta L. Mafouta F 6.30
25 D. Guèye D. Guèye 61' F 6.45
Bench
8 A. Lauray A. Lauray M 0.00
9 A. Rabillard A. Rabillard F 0.00
7 B. Brahimi B. Brahimi 29' F 6.43
1 E. Hatfout E. Hatfout G 0.00
13 H. Diallo H. Diallo 29' F 6.26
22 L. Calodat L. Calodat 29' D 6.38
15 N. Boissé N. Boissé 13' D 6.03
26 R. Bamba R. Bamba 21' D 5.98
20 W. Harhouz W. Harhouz F 0.00
Toulouse Toulouse 4-2-3-1
16 G. Restes G. Restes G 6.72
12 C. Tapé C. Tapé D 6.59
2 R. Nicolaisen R. Nicolaisen 85' D 6.91
3 M. McKenzie M. McKenzie D 7.07
22 R. Messali R. Messali D 7.10
14 N. Sigur N. Sigur M 6.78
23 C. Cásseres C. Cásseres 1 👟 M 7.70
8 T. Jørgensen T. Jørgensen M 6.39
20 C. Tengstedt C. Tengstedt 1 ⚽ M 8.00
15 A. Dønnum A. Dønnum 1 ⚽ 1 👟 64' M 8.92
13 J. Russell-Rowe J. Russell-Rowe 1 ⚽ 76' F 7.72
Bench
6 A. Vossah A. Vossah 26' M 6.66
19 D. Odogu D. Odogu D 0.00
94 I. Diallo I. Diallo D 0.00
7 Julián Vignolo Julián Vignolo 14' F 6.55
18 M. Amougou M. Amougou M 0.00
31 N. Schmidt N. Schmidt M 0.00
9 S. Hidalgo S. Hidalgo F 0.00
5 S. Koumbassa S. Koumbassa 5' D 6.50
1 T. Collin T. Collin G 0.00
Best on the pitch
A. Dønnum
A. Dønnum
M · Toulouse
8.92
1 ⚽ 1 👟
1 shots · 52 pass
C. Tengstedt
C. Tengstedt
M · Toulouse
8.00
1 ⚽
6 shots · 16 pass
J. Russell-Rowe
J. Russell-Rowe
F · Toulouse
7.72
1 ⚽
2 shots · 29 pass
C. Cásseres
C. Cásseres
M · Toulouse
7.70
1 👟
1 shots · 80 pass
R. Messali
R. Messali
D · Toulouse
7.10
· 74 pass
M. McKenzie
M. McKenzie
D · Toulouse
7.07
· 68 pass
Le Mans Le Mans — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
N. Kocik G 90 5.54 — — 0 30 19% 0 — —
H. Voyer D 77 6.18 — — 0 73 62% 1 — —
S. Yohou D 90 5.69 — — 0 79 69% 0 1 —
D. Sidibé D 90 6.07 — — 0 101 91% 1 1 —
L. Bretelle M 90 6.62 — — 1 51 45% 2 — —
Y. Larouci M 61 5.75 — — 0 31 25% 1 — —
J. Vercruysse M 90 6.71 — — 2 35 31% 1 — —
D. Traoré M 61 6.46 — — 1 22 22% 1 — —
L. Buadés M 69 5.87 — — 0 43 38% 1 — —
L. Mafouta F 90 6.30 — — 2 17 15% 0 — —
D. Guèye F 61 6.45 — — 0 13 12% 0 — —
B. Brahimi F 29 6.43 — — 2 16 12% 1 — —
H. Diallo F 29 6.26 — — 2 8 6% 0 — —
L. Calodat D 29 6.38 — — 1 16 14% 1 — —
N. Boissé D 13 6.03 — — 0 14 14% 1 — —
R. Bamba D 21 5.98 — — 0 17 15% 0 — —
Toulouse Toulouse — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
G. Restes G 90 6.72 — — 0 40 31% 0 — —
C. Tapé D 90 6.59 — — 1 33 27% 2 — —
R. Nicolaisen D 85 6.91 — — 0 41 36% 0 — —
M. McKenzie D 90 7.07 — — 0 68 60% 0 — —
R. Messali D 90 7.10 — — 0 74 67% 1 — —
N. Sigur M 90 6.78 — — 0 38 35% 1 — —
C. Cásseres M 90 7.70 — 1 1 80 65% 3 — —
T. Jørgensen M 90 6.39 — — 2 43 34% 3 — —
C. Tengstedt M 90 8.00 1 — 6 16 12% 0 — —
A. Dønnum M 64 8.92 1 1 1 52 43% 2 — —
J. Russell-Rowe F 76 7.72 1 — 2 29 27% 0 1 —
A. Vossah M 26 6.66 — — 0 10 9% 1 — —
Julián Vignolo F 14 6.55 — — 0 4 3% 0 — —
S. Koumbassa D 5 6.50 — — 0 1 1% 0 — —
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Le Mans vs Toulouse?
The final score was Le Mans 0–3 Toulouse.
What did the model predict before Le Mans vs Toulouse?
The model assigned 40% probability to a Le Mans win, 27% to a draw, and 31% to an Toulouse win.