Ekstraklasa
· Regular Season - 32
May 08, 2026 20:30
✗Model wrong — prediction Lech Poznan, result Draw
L. Palma
(ast. M. Ishak)
57'
52'
K. Hermoso
The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Lech Poznan a 81% win probability (draw 10%, Arka Gdynia 7%). The final result was Lech Poznan 1–1 Arka Gdynia. In 1 previous meetings, Lech Poznan have won 0 times, with 0 draws and 1 wins for Arka Gdynia.
Match statistics
15
Total shots
6
7
Shots on target
2
1.91
Actual xG
0.74
1
Saves
6
81%
Possession
19%
15
Corners
5
10
Tackles
15
1
🟨 Yellow cards
4
Match Events
22'
D. Gojny
25'
M. Rzuchowski
/
L. Perea
A. Milic
/ R. Gumny
46'
T. Ouma
/ F. Jagiello
46'
52'
K. Hermoso⚽
⚽L. Palma
· ast. M. Ishak
57'
61'
N. Rusyn
/
O. Kubiak
61'
E. D. Espiau Hernandez
/
V. Gutkovskis
L. Bengtsson
/ P. Rodriguez
64'
65'
D. Zator
A. Kozubal
/ Y. Agnero
82'
L. Palma
/ D. Hakans
82'
85'
P. Szysz
/
S. Kerk
85'
D. Kocyla
/
D. Abramowicz
R. Gumny
88'
90'+4
J. Grobelny
90'+8
N. Rusyn
Pre-match prediction
81.57%
Lech
10.97%
X ←
7.46%
Arka
✗ Wrong prediction —
we assigned to the actual result (Draw)
10.97%
(low confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
3.11
1.91
-1.2
0.73
0.74
+0.01
Lech Poznan dominated by xG (1.91 vs 0.74).
The final result does not reflect the playing dominance.
The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
Lineups
41
G
15
Michal Gurgul
D
Michal Gurgul
D
16
Antonio Milić
45'
D
Antonio Milić
45'
D
27
D
2
Joel Pereira
D
Joel Pereira
D
43
Antoni Kozubal
82'
M
Antoni Kozubal
82'
M
6
Timothy Ouma
45'
M
Timothy Ouma
45'
M
14
Leo Bengtsson
64'
M
Leo Bengtsson
64'
M
77
L. Palma
1 ⚽
82'
M
L. Palma
1 ⚽
82'
M
10
Patrik Wålemark
M
Patrik Wålemark
M
9
M. Ishak
1 👟
F
M. Ishak
1 👟
F
Bench
11
Daniel Håkans
8'
M
Daniel Håkans
8'
M
99
Pablo Rodríguez
26'
F
Pablo Rodríguez
26'
F
20
Robert Gumny
45'
D
Robert Gumny
45'
D
88
Taofeek Ismaheel
M
Taofeek Ismaheel
M
1
Jędrzej Grobelny
G
Jędrzej Grobelny
G
94
Dawid Gojny
D
Dawid Gojny
D
29
D
23
Kike Hermoso
1 ⚽
D
Kike Hermoso
1 ⚽
D
33
Dawid Abramowicz
85'
M
Dawid Abramowicz
85'
M
35
Kamil Jakubczyk
M
Kamil Jakubczyk
M
6
Luis Perea
25'
M
4
Dominick Zator
M
Dominick Zator
M
37
Sebastian Kerk
85'
F
Sebastian Kerk
85'
F
19
Vladislavs Gutkovskis
61'
F
Vladislavs Gutkovskis
61'
F
7
Oskar Kubiak
61'
F
Oskar Kubiak
61'
F
Bench
11
Dawid Kocyła
14'
M
Dawid Kocyła
14'
M
2
Marc Navarro
D
Marc Navarro
D
22
Michał Rzuchowski
65'
M
Michał Rzuchowski
65'
M
31
N. Rusyn
29'
F
Best on the pitch
Joel Pereira
D · Lech
9.50
· 79 pass
Kike Hermoso
D · Arka
8.20
1 ⚽
3 shots
· 16 pass
L. Palma
M · Lech
7.70
1 ⚽
3 shots
· 28 pass
D · Lech
7.60
1 shots
· 117 pass
Jędrzej Grobelny
G · Arka
7.60
· 29 pass
D · Arka
7.50
· 13 pass
Lech Poznan — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | 90 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 23 | 20% | — | — | — | |
| Michal Gurgul | D | 90 | 6.90 | — | — | 1 | 92 | 82% | 1 | — | — |
| Antonio Milić | D | 45 | 7.20 | — | — | — | 50 | 45% | 1 | — | — |
| D | 90 | 7.60 | — | — | 1 | 117 | 109% | — | — | — | |
| Joel Pereira | D | 90 | 9.50 | — | — | — | 79 | 61% | 1 | — | — |
| Antoni Kozubal | M | 82 | 6.70 | — | — | 1 | 42 | 40% | 1 | — | — |
| Timothy Ouma | M | 45 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 41 | 33% | 1 | — | — |
| Leo Bengtsson | M | 64 | 6.90 | — | — | 1 | 19 | 17% | — | — | — |
| L. Palma | M | 82 | 7.70 | 1 | — | 3 | 28 | 23% | — | — | — |
| Patrik Wålemark | M | 90 | 7.00 | — | — | 3 | 38 | 31% | 2 | — | — |
| M. Ishak | F | 90 | 5.90 | — | 1 | 4 | 12 | 9% | — | — | — |
| Daniel Håkans | M | 8 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 7 | 7% | — | — | — |
| Pablo Rodríguez | F | 26 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 27 | 24% | 2 | — | — |
| Robert Gumny | D | 45 | 6.60 | — | — | 1 | 49 | 42% | 1 | 1 | — |
Arka Gdynia — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jędrzej Grobelny | G | 90 | 7.60 | — | — | — | 29 | 7% | — | 1 | — |
| Dawid Gojny | D | 90 | 7.00 | — | — | — | 14 | 10% | 3 | 1 | — |
| D | 90 | 7.50 | — | — | — | 13 | 9% | 1 | — | — | |
| Kike Hermoso | D | 90 | 8.20 | 1 | — | 3 | 16 | 9% | 1 | — | — |
| Dawid Abramowicz | M | 85 | 7.30 | — | — | — | 13 | 8% | 1 | — | — |
| Kamil Jakubczyk | M | 90 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 12 | 9% | 2 | — | — |
| Luis Perea | M | 25 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 3 | 3% | — | — | — |
| Dominick Zator | M | 90 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 7 | 5% | 1 | 1 | — |
| Sebastian Kerk | F | 85 | 6.90 | — | — | 1 | 12 | 7% | 1 | — | — |
| Vladislavs Gutkovskis | F | 61 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 7 | 5% | — | — | — |
| Oskar Kubiak | F | 61 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 8 | 5% | — | — | — |
| Dawid Kocyła | M | 14 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 3 | 1% | 1 | — | — |
| Michał Rzuchowski | M | 65 | 6.90 | — | — | 1 | 10 | 6% | 1 | — | — |
| N. Rusyn | F | 29 | 6.70 | — | — | 1 | 2 | 1% | 3 | 1 | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Lech Poznan vs Arka Gdynia?
The final score was Lech Poznan 1–1 Arka Gdynia.
What did the model predict before Lech Poznan vs Arka Gdynia?
The model assigned 81% probability to a Lech Poznan win, 10% to a draw, and 7% to an Arka Gdynia win.