Ekstraklasa · Regular Season - 32 May 08, 2026 20:30

Lech Poznan

#3 · 19 pts

1 – 1

Final score

Arka Gdynia

✗Model wrong — prediction Lech Poznan, result Draw

L. Palma (ast. M. Ishak) 57'

52' K. Hermoso

The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Lech Poznan a 81% win probability (draw 10%, Arka Gdynia 7%). The final result was Lech Poznan 1–1 Arka Gdynia. In 1 previous meetings, Lech Poznan have won 0 times, with 0 draws and 1 wins for Arka Gdynia.

Match statistics

15

Total shots

6

7

Shots on target

2

1.91

Actual xG

0.74

1

Saves

6

81%

Possession

19%

15

Corners

5

10

Tackles

15

1

🟨 Yellow cards

4

Match Events

22'

D. Gojny

25'

M. Rzuchowski / L. Perea ↕

↕ A. Milic / R. Gumny

46'

↕ T. Ouma / F. Jagiello

46'

52'

K. Hermoso⚽

⚽L. Palma · ast. M. Ishak

57'

61'

N. Rusyn / O. Kubiak ↕

61'

E. D. Espiau Hernandez / V. Gutkovskis ↕

↕ L. Bengtsson / P. Rodriguez

64'

65'

D. Zator

↕ A. Kozubal / Y. Agnero

82'

↕ L. Palma / D. Hakans

82'

85'

P. Szysz / S. Kerk ↕

85'

D. Kocyla / D. Abramowicz ↕

R. Gumny

88'

90'+4

J. Grobelny

90'+8

N. Rusyn

Pre-match prediction

81.57%

Lech

10.97%

X ←

7.46%

Arka

✗ Wrong prediction — we assigned to the actual result (Draw) 10.97% (low confidence)

Expected vs actual xG

Exp.

Actual

Δ

Lech

3.11

1.91

-1.2

Arka

0.73

0.74

+0.01

Lech Poznan dominated by xG (1.91 vs 0.74). The final result does not reflect the playing dominance. The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.

League Table

#	Team	G	Pts
1	Gornik Zabrze	9	22
2	Legia Warszawa	9	19
3	Lech Poznan	8	19
4	Wisla Krakow	9	17
5	Pogon Szczecin	8	15
6	Korona Kielce	9	15
7	Zaglebie Lubin	9	15
8	Piast Gliwice	9	13
9	GKS Katowice	8	12
10	Jagiellonia	8	12
11	Wisla Plock	8	11
12	Widzew Łódź	9	9
13	Cracovia Krakow	9	8
14	Radomiak Radom	9	8
15	Slask Wroclaw	9	6
16	Motor Lublin	9	6
17	Wieczysta Kraków	8	5
18	Raków Częstochowa	9	3

Lineups

Lech Poznan 4-2-3-1

41

G 6.90

15 M. Gurgul D 6.90

16 A. Milić 45' D 7.20

27

D 7.60

2 Joel Pereira D 9.50

43 Antoni Kozubal 82' M 6.70

6 Timothy Ouma 45' M 6.70

14 L. Bengtsson 64' M 6.90

77 L. Palma 1 ⚽ 82' M 7.70

10 P. Wålemark M 7.00

9 M. Ishak 1 👟 F 5.90

Bench

11 D. Håkans 8' M 6.60

99 Pablo Rodríguez 26' F 6.90

20 R. Gumny 45' D 6.60

88 Taofeek Ismaheel M

Arka Gdynia 3-4-3

1 Jędrzej Grobelny G 7.60

94 Dawid Gojny D 7.00

29

D 7.50

23 Kike Hermoso 1 ⚽ D 8.20

33 Dawid Abramowicz 85' M 7.30

35 Kamil Jakubczyk M 6.60

6

Luis Perea 25' M 6.90

4 D. Zator M 6.90

37 S. Kerk 85' F 6.90

19 V. Gutkovskis 61' F 6.20

7 O. Kubiak 61' F 6.50

Bench

11 Dawid Kocyła 14' M 6.70

2 Marc Navarro D

22 Michał Rzuchowski 65' M 6.90

31 N. Rusyn 29' F 6.70

Best on the pitch

Joel Pereira

D · Lech

9.50

· 79 pass

Kike Hermoso

D · Arka

8.20

1 ⚽

3 shots · 16 pass

L. Palma

M · Lech

7.70

1 ⚽

3 shots · 28 pass

D · Lech

7.60

1 shots · 117 pass

Jędrzej Grobelny

G · Arka

7.60

· 29 pass

D · Arka

7.50

· 13 pass

Lech Poznan — Player statistics

Team	Pos	Min	Rating	⚽	👟	Shots	Pass	Acc%	Tck	YC	RC
	G	90	6.90	—	—	—	23	20%	—	—	—
M. Gurgul	D	90	6.90	—	—	1	92	82%	1	—	—
A. Milić	D	45	7.20	—	—	—	50	45%	1	—	—
	D	90	7.60	—	—	1	117	109%	—	—	—
Joel Pereira	D	90	9.50	—	—	—	79	61%	1	—	—
Antoni Kozubal	M	82	6.70	—	—	1	42	40%	1	—	—
Timothy Ouma	M	45	6.70	—	—	—	41	33%	1	—	—
L. Bengtsson	M	64	6.90	—	—	1	19	17%	—	—	—
L. Palma	M	82	7.70	1	—	3	28	23%	—	—	—
P. Wålemark	M	90	7.00	—	—	3	38	31%	2	—	—
M. Ishak	F	90	5.90	—	1	4	12	9%	—	—	—
D. Håkans	M	8	6.60	—	—	—	7	7%	—	—	—
Pablo Rodríguez	F	26	6.90	—	—	—	27	24%	2	—	—
R. Gumny	D	45	6.60	—	—	1	49	42%	1	1	—

Arka Gdynia — Player statistics

Team	Pos	Min	Rating	⚽	👟	Shots	Pass	Acc%	Tck	YC	RC
Jędrzej Grobelny	G	90	7.60	—	—	—	29	7%	—	1	—
Dawid Gojny	D	90	7.00	—	—	—	14	10%	3	1	—
	D	90	7.50	—	—	—	13	9%	1	—	—
Kike Hermoso	D	90	8.20	1	—	3	16	9%	1	—	—
Dawid Abramowicz	M	85	7.30	—	—	—	13	8%	1	—	—
Kamil Jakubczyk	M	90	6.60	—	—	—	12	9%	2	—	—
Luis Perea	M	25	6.90	—	—	—	3	3%	—	—	—
D. Zator	M	90	6.90	—	—	—	7	5%	1	1	—
S. Kerk	F	85	6.90	—	—	1	12	7%	1	—	—
V. Gutkovskis	F	61	6.20	—	—	—	7	5%	—	—	—
O. Kubiak	F	61	6.50	—	—	—	8	5%	—	—	—
Dawid Kocyła	M	14	6.70	—	—	—	3	1%	1	—	—
Michał Rzuchowski	M	65	6.90	—	—	1	10	6%	1	—	—
N. Rusyn	F	29	6.70	—	—	1	2	1%	3	1	—