Ekstraklasa · Regular Season - 32 May 08, 2026 20:30

Lech Poznan

#1 · 56 pts

1 – 1

Final score

Arka Gdynia

#17 · 36 pts

✗Model wrong — prediction Lech Poznan, result Pareggio

L. Palma (ast. M. Ishak) 57'

52' K. Hermoso

The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Lech Poznan a 81% win probability (draw 10%, Arka Gdynia 7%). The final result was Lech Poznan 1–1 Arka Gdynia. In 1 previous meetings, Lech Poznan have won 0 times, with 0 draws and 1 wins for Arka Gdynia.

Match statistics

15

Total shots

6

7

Shots on target

2

1.91

Actual xG

0.74

1

Saves

6

81%

Possession

19%

15

Corners

5

10

Tackles

15

1

🟨 Yellow cards

4

Match Events

22'

D. Gojny

25'

M. Rzuchowski / L. Perea ↕

↕ A. Milic / R. Gumny

46'

↕ T. Ouma / F. Jagiello

46'

52'

K. Hermoso⚽

⚽L. Palma · ast. M. Ishak

57'

61'

N. Rusyn / O. Kubiak ↕

61'

E. D. Espiau Hernandez / V. Gutkovskis ↕

↕ L. Bengtsson / P. Rodriguez

64'

65'

D. Zator

↕ A. Kozubal / Y. Agnero

82'

↕ L. Palma / D. Hakans

82'

85'

P. Szysz / S. Kerk ↕

85'

D. Kocyla / D. Abramowicz ↕

R. Gumny

88'

90'+4

J. Grobelny

90'+8

N. Rusyn

Pre-match prediction

81.57%

Lech

10.97%

X ←

7.46%

Arka

✗ Wrong prediction — we assigned to the actual result (Draw) 10.97% (low confidence)

Expected vs actual xG

Exp.

Actual

Δ

Lech

3.11

1.91

-1.2

Arka

0.73

0.74

+0.01

Lech Poznan dominated by xG (1.91 vs 0.74). The final result does not reflect the playing dominance. The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.

League Table

#	Team	G	Pts
1	Lech Poznan	32	56
2	Jagiellonia	32	52
3	Gornik Zabrze	32	50
4	Raków Częstochowa	32	49
5	GKS Katowice	32	48
6	Zaglebie Lubin	32	48
7	Wisla Plock	32	45
8	Radomiak Radom	32	44
9	Legia Warszawa	32	43
10	Motor Lublin	32	42
11	Pogon Szczecin	32	41
12	Piast Gliwice	32	41
13	Cracovia Krakow	32	40
14	Widzew Łódź	32	39
15	Korona Kielce	32	39
16	Lechia Gdansk	32	38
17	Arka Gdynia	32	36
18	Nieciecza	32	28

Lineups

Lech Poznan 4-2-3-1

41

G 6.90

15

M. Gurgul D 6.90

16

A. Milic 45' D 7.20

27

D 7.60

2

J. Pereira D 9.50

43

A. Kozubal 82' M 6.70

6

T. Ouma 45' M 6.70

14

L. Bengtsson 64' M 6.90

77

L. Palma 1 ⚽ 82' M 7.70

10

Patrik Wålemark M 7.00

9 M. Ishak 1 👟 F 5.90

Bench

11

D. Hakans 8' M 6.60

99

Pablo Rodríguez 26' F 6.90

20

R. Gumny 45' D 6.60

88 T. Ismaheel M

Arka Gdynia 3-4-3

1 Jędrzej Grobelny G 7.60

94

D. Gojny D 7.00

29

D 7.50

23 Kike Hermoso 1 ⚽ D 8.20

33 Dawid Abramowicz 85' M 7.30

35 Kamil Jakubczyk M 6.60

6

L. Perea 25' M 6.90

4 Dominick Zator M 6.90

37 Sebastian Kerk 85' F 6.90

19 Vladislavs Gutkovskis 61' F 6.20

7 Oskar Kubiak 61' F 6.50

Bench

11 Dawid Kocyła 14' M 6.70

2 Marc Navarro D

22 Michał Rzuchowski 65' M 6.90

31

N. Rusyn 29' F 6.70

Best on the pitch

J. Pereira

D · Lech

9.50

· 79 pass

Kike Hermoso

D · Arka

8.20

1 ⚽

3 shots · 16 pass

L. Palma

M · Lech

7.70

1 ⚽

3 shots · 28 pass

D · Lech

7.60

1 shots · 117 pass

Jędrzej Grobelny

G · Arka

7.60

· 29 pass

D · Arka

7.50

· 13 pass

Lech Poznan — Player statistics

Team	Pos	Min	Rating	⚽	👟	Shots	Pass	Acc%	Tck	YC	RC
	G	90	6.90	—	—	—	23	20%	—	—	—
M. Gurgul	D	90	6.90	—	—	1	92	82%	1	—	—
A. Milic	D	45	7.20	—	—	—	50	45%	1	—	—
	D	90	7.60	—	—	1	117	109%	—	—	—
J. Pereira	D	90	9.50	—	—	—	79	61%	1	—	—
A. Kozubal	M	82	6.70	—	—	1	42	40%	1	—	—
T. Ouma	M	45	6.70	—	—	—	41	33%	1	—	—
L. Bengtsson	M	64	6.90	—	—	1	19	17%	—	—	—
L. Palma	M	82	7.70	1	—	3	28	23%	—	—	—
Patrik Wålemark	M	90	7.00	—	—	3	38	31%	2	—	—
M. Ishak	F	90	5.90	—	1	4	12	9%	—	—	—
D. Hakans	M	8	6.60	—	—	—	7	7%	—	—	—
Pablo Rodríguez	F	26	6.90	—	—	—	27	24%	2	—	—
R. Gumny	D	45	6.60	—	—	1	49	42%	1	1	—

Arka Gdynia — Player statistics

Team	Pos	Min	Rating	⚽	👟	Shots	Pass	Acc%	Tck	YC	RC
Jędrzej Grobelny	G	90	7.60	—	—	—	29	7%	—	1	—
D. Gojny	D	90	7.00	—	—	—	14	10%	3	1	—
	D	90	7.50	—	—	—	13	9%	1	—	—
Kike Hermoso	D	90	8.20	1	—	3	16	9%	1	—	—
Dawid Abramowicz	M	85	7.30	—	—	—	13	8%	1	—	—
Kamil Jakubczyk	M	90	6.60	—	—	—	12	9%	2	—	—
L. Perea	M	25	6.90	—	—	—	3	3%	—	—	—
Dominick Zator	M	90	6.90	—	—	—	7	5%	1	1	—
Sebastian Kerk	F	85	6.90	—	—	1	12	7%	1	—	—
Vladislavs Gutkovskis	F	61	6.20	—	—	—	7	5%	—	—	—
Oskar Kubiak	F	61	6.50	—	—	—	8	5%	—	—	—
Dawid Kocyła	M	14	6.70	—	—	—	3	1%	1	—	—
Michał Rzuchowski	M	65	6.90	—	—	1	10	6%	1	—	—
N. Rusyn	F	29	6.70	—	—	1	2	1%	3	1	—