Lech Poznan 0–4 Bayer Leverkusen — pre-match prediction — Europa League — October 15, 2026

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Europa League · League Stage - 2 October 15, 2026 18:45 Stadion Miejski, Poznan

Lech Poznan

#32 · 1 pts

0 – 4

Final score

Bayer Leverkusen

#2 · 9 pts

(pen.) 29' Patrik Schick

32' Malik Tillman

(pen.) 41' Patrik Schick

88' (ast. Afonso Moreira) Ibrahim Maza

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The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Bayer Leverkusen a 43% win probability (draw 18%, Lech Poznan 37%). The final result was Lech Poznan 0–4 Bayer Leverkusen.

Match statistics

Total shots

Shots on target

0.54

Actual xG

5.40

Saves

39%

Possession

61%

Corners

Tackles

🟨 Yellow cards

Match Events

↕ Wojciech Monka / Terry Yegbe

15'

18'

Patrik Schick / Martin Terrier ↕

25'

29'

(pen.) Patrik Schick⚽

32'

Malik Tillman⚽

38'

Mateusz Skrzypczak

40'

41'

(pen.) Patrik Schick⚽

↕ Mikael Ishak / Y. Agnero

60'

↕ Leo Bengtsson / Filip Jagiełło

60'

↕ Patrick Walemark / Daniel Håkans

60'

62'

Moussa Diaby / Nathan Tella ↕

62'

Robert Andrich / Aleix García ↕

62'

Facundo Medina / Miguel Gutiérrez ↕

68'

Robert Andrich

↕ Gustav Berggren / Pablo Rodriguez Delgado

74'

76'

Afonso Moreira / Patrik Schick ↕

80'

Moussa Diaby

88'

ast. Afonso Moreira · Ibrahim Maza⚽

Pre-match prediction

37.54%

Lech

18.61%

43.85%

Bayer ←

we assigned to the actual result (Bayer Leverkusen) 43.85% (low confidence)

Expected vs actual xG

Exp.

Actual

Lech

3.14

0.54

-2.6

Bayer

3.16

5.40

+2.24

Bayer Leverkusen dominated by xG (5.40 vs 0.54). The final result reflects the playing dominance. The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.

League Table

#	Team	G	Pts
1	Benfica	3	9
2	Bayer Leverkusen	3	9
3	Bournemouth	3	9
4	Ferencvarosi TC	3	9
5	Olympiakos Piraeus	3	9
6	Union St. Gilloise	3	7
7	Juventus	3	7
8	Beşiktaş	3	7
9	Sunderland	3	7
10	AZ Alkmaar	3	6
11	Omonia Nicosia	3	6
12	Lyon	3	6
13	Rennes	3	5
14	Real Sociedad	3	4
15	Crystal Palace	3	4
16	Sparta Praha	3	4
17	Levski Sofia	3	4
18	Dinamo Zagreb	3	4
19	Sturm Graz	3	4
20	NEC Nijmegen	3	4
21	Red Bull Salzburg	3	4
22	Anderlecht	3	3
23	1899 Hoffenheim	3	3
24	AC Milan	3	3
25	Celta Vigo	3	3
26	OFI	3	3
27	Jagiellonia	3	3
28	Torreense	3	3
29	Celje	3	1
30	Hapoel Beer Sheva	3	1
31	Lillestrom	3	1
32	Lech Poznan	3	1
33	Plzen	3	0
34	Marseille	3	0
35	Celtic	3	0
36	Ararat-Armenia	3	0

Lineups

Lech Poznan 4-2-3-1

M. Lis G 6.61

M. Gurgul D 5.38

W. Mońka 15' D 5.68

M. Skrzypczak D 5.57

Joel Pereira D 5.50

A. Kozubal M 6.34

G. Berggren 74' M 5.88

L. Bengtsson 60' M 5.91

M. Ishak 60' M 6.78

P. Wålemark 60' M 6.35

L. Palma F 6.47

Bench

D. Håkans 30' M 5.81

F. Jagiełło 30' M 5.80

K. Delikat M 0.00

M. Pruchniewski G 0.00

Pablo Rodríguez 16' M 5.72

T. Yegbe 75' D 5.97

W. Szymczak F 0.00

Y. Agnero 30' F 6.21

Bayer Leverkusen 4-2-3-1

M. Flekken G 7.10

Miguel Gutiérrez 62' D 6.69

E. Tapsoba D 7.31

L. Badé D 7.11

Lucas Vázquez D 6.93

Aleix García 62' M 7.19

E. Fernández M 7.15

I. Maza 1 ⚽ M 8.20

M. Tillman 1 ⚽ M 8.20

N. Tella 62' M 6.89

M. Terrier 18' F 6.48

Bench

Afonso Moreira 1 👟 14' F 6.78

F. Medina 28' D 7.52

J. Blaswich G 0.00

J. Quansah D 0.00

M. Diaby 28' F 6.42

N. Lomb G 0.00

P. Schick 2 ⚽ 58' F 8.50

R. Andrich 28' M 6.62

Best on the pitch

P. Schick

F · Bayer

8.50

2 ⚽

3 shots · 11 pass

M. Tillman

M · Bayer

8.20

1 ⚽

4 shots · 46 pass

I. Maza

M · Bayer

8.20

1 ⚽

4 shots · 31 pass

F. Medina

D · Bayer

7.52

· 20 pass

E. Tapsoba

D · Bayer

7.31

1 shots · 98 pass

Aleix García

M · Bayer

7.19

2 shots · 63 pass

Lech Poznan — Player statistics

Team	Pos	Min	Rating	⚽	👟	Shots	Pass	Acc%	Tck	YC	RC
M. Lis	G	90	6.61	—	—	0	36	24%	0	—	—
M. Gurgul	D	90	5.38	—	—	1	53	36%	2	—	—
W. Mońka	D	15	5.68	—	—	0	2	0%	0	—	—
M. Skrzypczak	D	90	5.57	—	—	0	44	41%	0	1	—
Joel Pereira	D	90	5.50	—	—	1	38	19%	6	—	—
A. Kozubal	M	90	6.34	—	—	1	45	42%	1	—	—
G. Berggren	M	74	5.88	—	—	1	18	14%	1	—	—
L. Bengtsson	M	60	5.91	—	—	0	8	7%	0	—	—
M. Ishak	M	60	6.78	—	—	2	11	9%	1	—	—
P. Wålemark	M	60	6.35	—	—	1	7	6%	0	—	—
L. Palma	F	90	6.47	—	—	2	32	29%	0	—	—
D. Håkans	M	30	5.81	—	—	0	5	4%	0	—	—
F. Jagiełło	M	30	5.80	—	—	0	19	17%	0	—	—
Pablo Rodríguez	M	16	5.72	—	—	1	8	6%	2	—	—
T. Yegbe	D	75	5.97	—	—	0	45	39%	0	—	—
Y. Agnero	F	30	6.21	—	—	0	3	2%	0	—	—

Bayer Leverkusen — Player statistics

Team	Pos	Min	Rating	⚽	👟	Shots	Pass	Acc%	Tck	YC	RC
M. Flekken	G	90	7.10	—	—	0	20	18%	0	—	—
Miguel Gutiérrez	D	62	6.69	—	—	0	42	35%	0	—	—
E. Tapsoba	D	90	7.31	—	—	1	98	92%	2	—	—
L. Badé	D	90	7.11	—	—	0	72	64%	3	—	—
Lucas Vázquez	D	90	6.93	—	—	0	61	55%	1	—	—
Aleix García	M	62	7.19	—	—	2	63	60%	1	—	—
E. Fernández	M	90	7.15	—	—	0	72	70%	1	—	—
I. Maza	M	90	8.20	1	—	4	31	27%	4	—	—
M. Tillman	M	90	8.20	1	—	4	46	37%	1	—	—
N. Tella	M	62	6.89	—	—	3	15	15%	1	—	—
M. Terrier	F	18	6.48	—	—	0	3	2%	0	—	—
Afonso Moreira	F	14	6.78	—	1	3	5	3%	0	—	—
F. Medina	D	28	7.52	—	—	0	20	20%	0	—	—
M. Diaby	F	28	6.42	—	—	0	10	10%	0	1	—
P. Schick	F	58	8.50	2	—	3	11	11%	0	—	—
R. Andrich	M	28	6.62	—	—	2	17	15%	0	1	—

Frequently Asked Questions

What was the final score of Lech Poznan vs Bayer Leverkusen?

The final score was Lech Poznan 0–4 Bayer Leverkusen.

What did the model predict before Lech Poznan vs Bayer Leverkusen?

The model assigned 37% probability to a Lech Poznan win, 18% to a draw, and 43% to an Bayer Leverkusen win.