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Lech Poznan - Bayer Leverkusen

Europa League October 15, 2026 18:45
Lech Poznan
#17 · 0 pts
vs
Bayer Leverkusen
#18 · 0 pts
⚡ Pre-match analysis
48.02%
Win
Lech Poznan
24.1%
Draw
27.88%
Win
Bayer Leverkusen
2.56
Expected xG
1.66

Market probabilities

Most likely result 2–1 (8.93%)
1X2 Result
1 48%
X 24%
2 28%
Double Chance ✓ 100.0% hit rate (10 picks)
1X 72%
X2 52%
12 76%
Over / Under
Over 1.5 84%
Over 2.5 70%
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The ForzaPitch prediction gives Lech Poznan a 48% win probability, against 24% for a draw and 27% for Bayer Leverkusen. Expected goals are 2.6 for Lech Poznan and 1.7 for Bayer Leverkusen (total 4.2), with a 84% probability of Over 1.5 goals. The most likely scoreline is 2–1 at 8.93% probability.

Score Matrix

↕ Lech Poznan Bayer Leverkusen →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0 1.5% 2.4% 2.0% 1.1% 0.5% 0.2%
1 3.8% 6.3% 5.2% 2.9% 1.2% 0.4%
2 4.8% 8.0% 6.6% 3.7% 1.5% 0.5%
3 4.1% 6.8% 5.7% 3.1% 1.3% 0.4%
4 2.6% 4.4% 3.6% 2.0% 0.8% 0.3%
5 1.4% 2.2% 1.9% 1.0% 0.4% 0.1%

Recent form

Lech Poznan Lech Poznan
D FC Thun 2–2
W FC Thun 7–0
W KI Klaksvik 0–5
W KI Klaksvik 1–0
W Genk 1–2
Home clean sheet (120 days) 51%
Bayer Leverkusen Bayer Leverkusen
No data available
Away clean sheet (120 days) 28%

Playing profile

Lech Poznan Lech Poznan
Attack
64
Defence
77
Form
68
Bayer Leverkusen Bayer Leverkusen
Attack
63
Defence
78
Form
70
Indices on a 0–100 scale calculated by the model

League Table

# Team G Pts
1 Anderlecht Anderlecht 0 0
2 Ararat-Armenia Ararat-Armenia 0 0
3 AZ Alkmaar AZ Alkmaar 0 0
4 Benfica Benfica 0 0
5 Beşiktaş Beşiktaş 0 0
6 Bournemouth Bournemouth 0 0
7 Celje Celje 0 0
8 Celta Vigo Celta Vigo 0 0
9 Celtic Celtic 0 0
10 Crystal Palace Crystal Palace 0 0
11 Ferencvarosi TC Ferencvarosi TC 0 0
12 Dinamo Zagreb Dinamo Zagreb 0 0
13 Hapoel Beer Sheva Hapoel Beer Sheva 0 0
14 1899 Hoffenheim 1899 Hoffenheim 0 0
15 Jagiellonia Jagiellonia 0 0
16 Juventus Juventus 0 0
17 Lech Poznan Lech Poznan 0 0
18 Bayer Leverkusen Bayer Leverkusen 0 0
19 Levski Sofia Levski Sofia 0 0
20 Lillestrom Lillestrom 0 0
21 Lyon Lyon 0 0
22 Marseille Marseille 0 0
23 AC Milan AC Milan 0 0
24 NEC Nijmegen NEC Nijmegen 0 0
25 OFI OFI 0 0
26 Olympiakos Piraeus Olympiakos Piraeus 0 0
27 Omonia Nicosia Omonia Nicosia 0 0
28 Real Sociedad Real Sociedad 0 0
29 Rennes Rennes 0 0
30 Red Bull Salzburg Red Bull Salzburg 0 0
31 Sparta Praha Sparta Praha 0 0
32 Sturm Graz Sturm Graz 0 0
33 Sunderland Sunderland 0 0
34 Torreense Torreense 0 0
35 Union St. Gilloise Union St. Gilloise 0 0
36 Plzen Plzen 0 0
Frequently Asked Questions
Who will win Lech Poznan vs Bayer Leverkusen?
The model gives Lech Poznan a 48% win probability, 24% for a draw, and 27% for an Bayer Leverkusen win.
How many goals are expected in Lech Poznan vs Bayer Leverkusen?
Expected goals: Lech Poznan 2.6, Bayer Leverkusen 1.7 (total 4.2). Probability of over 1.5 goals: 84%.
What is the most likely score in Lech Poznan vs Bayer Leverkusen?
2–1 is the most probable final score, with an estimated probability of 8.93%.